July 2024

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Interesting what happened yesterday with that afternoon coastal trough and the flash flooding on Long Island. For the last few days models had this feature more to the SW over NJ. But I mentioned how these features can often be fickle. This one followed the past pattern and wound up across Long Island instead of NJ. During the winter these IVTs or coastal local instability troughs often end up in areas other than forecast. The most extreme instance of one of these during the warm season was with Henri a few summers ago. The main system looped back into CT and the coastal trough wound up right through NYC with the flash floods. But the CAMS had the main axis further SW in NJ or Delaware. So these often become nowcast specials. At least the HFREF got the heavy rain potential correct both times. But the placement was way off.

Often seems that it ends up N and E of the initial forecasts as well...

[winterwx21]

Most likely nothing this afternoon, but it appears that some activity will be coming in around midnight tonight. HRRR looks decent. Very dry here, so I'm really hoping we get some rain. Overnight tonight looks like our best chance, and then just spotty storms tomorrow afternoon. 

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Most likely nothing this afternoon, but it appears that some activity will be coming in around midnight tonight. HRRR looks decent. Very dry here, so I'm really hoping we get some rain. Overnight tonight looks like our best chance, and then just spotty storms tomorrow afternoon. 

Nam is wet overnight so I wouldn't expect much

[forkyfork]

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is wet overnight so I wouldn't expect much

all the models were showing us getting 1"+ this week and they backed off. lol

[gravitylover]

Boy, northern VT just keeps getting slammed. Another 6.5" in just a few hours. The damage is just terrible with nearly everything shut down (again). 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Boy, northern VT just keeps getting slammed. Another 6.5" in just a few hours. The damage is just terrible with nearly everything shut down (again). 

Sure hope they don't get anything of tropical origin later in the season up that way.  Thankfully the excessive rains up there of late have been pretty localized but still.

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

your average high is like 88

 

 3 days of 90 plus qualifies as a heatwave 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

your average high is like 88

 

 3 days of 90 plus qualifies as a heatwave 

[winterwx21]

59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is wet overnight so I wouldn't expect much

Yeah I'm not getting my hopes up too high after all the bad luck we've had lately. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I'm not getting my hopes up too high after all the bad luck we've had lately. 

Night time warm front coming and it's already juicy out...I'll bet we all get something

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Boy, northern VT just keeps getting slammed. Another 6.5" in just a few hours. The damage is just terrible with nearly everything shut down (again). 

 

 

[winterwx21]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Night time warm front coming and it's already juicy out...I'll bet we all get something

I hope you're right. There definitely will be some activity tonight, but I'm not sure it's gonna be widespread. We'll see. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

I hope you're right. There definitely will be some activity tonight, but I'm not sure it's gonna be widespread. We'll see. 

Hrrr has nothing for our area now haha 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

your average high is like 88

The average July high temperature over the last 10 years at Harrison, NJ away from the sea breeze has been 89°. It has warmed up so much that a 90° day is pretty much the normal high temperature. As recently as the 2000s the average high was closer to 85°. So these days the more memorable heatwaves don’t  really start until the warm spots reach 95°. 

Monthly Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	89.0	89.0
2024	90.4	90.4
2023	89.5	89.5
2022	91.0	91.0
2021	87.6	87.6
2020	90.3	90.3
2019	90.6	90.6
2018	88.6	88.6
2017	85.9	85.9
2016	88.9	88.9
2015	87.1	87.1

 

Monthly Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	85.6	85.6
2009	83.2	83.2
2008	87.5	87.5
2007	84.6	84.6
2006	88.5	88.5
2005	87.2	87.2
2004	83.0	83.0
2003	85.1	85.1
2002	89.7	89.7
2001	84.9	84.9
2000	81.9	81.9

[winterwarlock]

91...its a heatwave...#4

 

Sorry haters

[Big Jims Videos]

Repeatedly hot and dry along the 195 corridor. Lawns are brown/crispy here in Central NJ. 

[Rtd208]

High for the day is 92 here.

High for the day yesterday was also 92 here.

Current temp 91/DP 73/RH 57%

[Cfa]

High of 86 here, low was 72, currently 80.

[bluewave]

No heatwaves yet at JFK this year since the Ambrose Jet continues to produce numerous days with gusts over 30 mph. JFK only has had 2 days reaching 90° due to the much stronger sea breezes this summer. This is the 3rd lowest count in record through July 29th. It’s nice that at least a very localized part of our area can have any record which even approaches the record cool summer of 2009.
 

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   81  70  69 S25G36   

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2009-07-29	0	0
-	1967-07-29	0	0
2	2014-07-29	1	0
-	2004-07-29	1	0
-	1985-07-29	1	0
-	1979-07-29	1	0
-	1960-07-29	1	1
-	1951-07-29	1	2
-	1948-07-29	1	198
3	2024-07-29	2	0
-	2007-07-29	2	0
-	1975-07-29	2	0
-	1958-07-29	2	1
-	1950-07-29	2	0

[doncat]

Made it to 91° here today after a 12 day below 90° break.

[steve392]

87 and humid.  Strong breeze from sse cools things off. Had to walk sister-in-laws dog in hoboken. That breeze off the water feels incredible. 

[Rjay]

7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Boy, northern VT just keeps getting slammed. Another 6.5" in just a few hours. The damage is just terrible with nearly everything shut down (again). 

New round of storms headed in for them.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible. Heat will likely return during the first week in August.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that August will likely be warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall.

The SOI was -23.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.842 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

Windy. Most models dry now for tonight in central jersey 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

No heatwaves yet at JFK this year since the Ambrose Jet continues to produce numerous days with gusts over 30 mph. JFK only has had 2 days reaching 90° due to the much stronger sea breezes this summer. This is the 3rd lowest count in record through July 29th. It’s nice that at least a very localized part of our area can have any record which even approaches the record cool summer of 2009.
 

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   81  70  69 S25G36   

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2009-07-29	0	0
-	1967-07-29	0	0
2	2014-07-29	1	0
-	2004-07-29	1	0
-	1985-07-29	1	0
-	1979-07-29	1	0
-	1960-07-29	1	1
-	1951-07-29	1	2
-	1948-07-29	1	198
3	2024-07-29	2	0
-	2007-07-29	2	0
-	1975-07-29	2	0
-	1958-07-29	2	1
-	1950-07-29	2	0

Once again today S wind gusts to near 40 at JFK. Wow. 

[Allsnow]

Best chance of rain looks to be Friday Night Now. The wet pattern has been a complete failure here 

[psv88]

85 today. Beautiful 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

 

TEB: 92
EWR: 92
New Brnswck: 89
BLM: 89
NYC: 88
TTN: 87
LGA: 86
PHL: 86
JFK:  84
ACY:: 83
ISP: 82

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  101 (1949) 
NYC: 98 (1988)
LGA: 99 (1988)
JFK: 96 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1956)
NYC: 57 (1956)
LGA: 61 (1956)
JFK: 58 (1968)

Historical:

 

1949 - The state record for Connecticut was established when the town of Greenville registered an afternoon high of 102 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - The temperature at Portland, OR, reached 107 degrees to equal their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)

1970: Hurricane Celia was born in the northwest of the Caribbean Sea on this day. The hurricane would be one of the worst ever to hit Texas and would reach Texas late on August 3. The storm reached its peak as it made landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, as a strong Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane Celia is currently the last major hurricane to make landfall on the middle Texas Coast until Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

1979 - A forty-minute hailstorm bombed Fort Collins, CO, with baseball to softball size hail. Two thousand homes and 2500 automobiles were damaged, and about 25 persons were injured, mainly when hit on the head by the huge stones. A three month old baby died later of injuries. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Afternoon highs of 105 degrees at Aberdeen SD, 102 degrees at Bismarck, ND, and 102 degrees at Pueblo, CO, were records for the date. Pueblo, CO, reported just .09 inch of rain for the first thirty days of the month. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A dozen cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore, MD, hit 103 degrees, marking a record eight days of 100 degree heat for the month, and ten for the year. The high of 101 degrees at Billings, MT, marked a record seventeen days of 100 degree heat for the year. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the northeast, with nearly fifty reports of large hail or damaging winds in Pennsylvania and New York State. A tree fell on a car at Erie, PA, injuring four persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms over central Missouri deluged Columbia with 5.98 inches of rain causing flash flooding. Daytime thunderstorms in Kentucky drenched Paducah with 1.73 inches of rain in less than half an hour. Evening thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced wind gusts to 78 mph east of Moccasin, MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[Allsnow]

0.00 overnight 

 

are they still expecting a busy tropical hurricane season? It feels like it’s been very slow