July 2024

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Once again today S wind gusts to near 40 at JFK. Wow. 

This looks like the greatest temperature gradient between JFK and Central New Jersey we have ever seen in July. Hightstown, NJ just set set their all-time July average high temperature of 91.8°. JFK has only averaged 84.3° which is well down the list at 20th warmest. So people on the South Shore got a real gift this July with  the afternoon average highs so comfortable compared to NJ. But there is probably plenty of sand blown onto the streets especially near the beach with so many afternoons with this string of an Ambrose Jet. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	91.8	6
2	2022	91.4	0
3	1955	91.2	0
4	2020	91.0	0
5	2010	90.2	0
6	2011	90.0	0
-	1999	90.0	0
7	1894	89.9	1
8	2023	89.8	0
-	2019	89.8	0
9	1910	89.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	89.0	0
2	2011	88.6	0
3	2022	86.9	0
4	1993	86.8	0
5	2019	86.7	0
-	1966	86.7	0
6	2013	86.5	0
-	1999	86.5	0
7	2020	86.4	0
-	1983	86.4	0
8	1949	86.2	0
9	2002	86.1	0
10	2012	86.0	0
11	2016	85.7	0
12	1963	85.5	0
13	2015	85.2	0
14	1994	85.1	0
15	1974	85.0	0
16	2023	84.8	0
-	2008	84.8	0
-	1955	84.8	0
17	1971	84.7	0
18	1968	84.5	0
19	1952	84.4	0
20	2024	84.3	1
-	1970	84.3	0
-	1961	84.3	0

 

[SACRUS]

77 / 71 cloudy with showers around.  Warm front pushing through.  Where there's clearing should get close to or to 90.  Thu the driest and sunniest day of the next 5 and should be the hottest mid - upper 90s in the warm spots. The weekend seed a trough swing through and chance for more widespread storms, clouds could get in the way of extending or getting a heatwave.  Could see some hefty rain totals from slow moving storms especially North and e.  Overall warm and humid with storm chances next week.  Watch tropics and stalled out systems.  Enough sun gets to 90, clouds and showers each day.  Way beyond ridge west trough east should lead to near normal by day 10 ahead of next heat.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Storms Fri evening - the weekend and more next week

 

[MJO812]

Sprinkles here

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

0.00 overnight 

 

are they still expecting a busy tropical hurricane season? It feels like it’s been very slow 

Season doesn't really get going til August.   That said, the Nina is not going crazy so that could lead to a reduced # of storms.   

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Season doesn't really get going til August.   That said, the Nina is not going crazy so that could lead to a reduced # of storms.   

We shall see what happens. Seldom do these cold/snowy or busy hurricanes season forecast ever work out 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We shall see what happens. Rarely do these cold/snowy or busy hurricanes season forecast ever work out 

Part of the issue is that everyone went hysterical on the big season so the expectations are high...Even a busy season does not alway equate to landfalls...

and the cold/snowy forecasts are a staple from certain forecasters-just have to see through the hype....Last winter even remotely cold snowy was 20-21...and even that was a great 3 week stretch and not the whole winter or anything close to it.

[MANDA]

.01" rainfall last 24 hours.

Let's continue to play kick the can.  Very dry and disappointing "wet stretch" especially considering the high DP pattern that has been in place for the last 3-4 weeks.  Some places haven done well but those places are a small percentage of this sub forum.  It has been dry.

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

.01" rainfall last 24 hours.

Let's continue to play kick the can.  Very dry and disappointing "wet stretch" especially considering the high DP pattern that has been in place for the last 3-4 weeks.  Some places haven done well but those places are a small percentage of this sub forum.  It has been dry.

Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend 

Nam is quite wet this afternoon lol

[Stormlover74]

[Dark Star]

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Part of the issue is that everyone went hysterical on the big season so the expectations are high...Even a busy season does not alway equate to landfalls...

and the cold/snowy forecasts are a staple from certain forecasters-just have to see through the hype....Last winter even remotely cold snowy was 20-21...and even that was a great 3 week stretch and not the whole winter or anything close to it.

As global temperatures rise, I guess it's easy just to assume that this will spawn more tropical systems?  A novice could just forecast 2 storms above the average...

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

As global temperatures rise, I guess it's easy just to assume that this will spawn more tropical systems?  A novice could just forecast 2 storms above the average...

Kind of like monthly temp departures--every month is +2 around here.

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Kind of like monthly temp departures--every month is +2 around here.

Yes.  At least 2 above and this is against our highest set of 30 year normals.  Just seems near impossible to get a month 2 below normal at this point.

[winterwx21]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend 

Yeah I'm not gonna get my hopes up too high for Friday into the weekend after what has happened the last few weeks. As Manda said, the lack of rain this summer has been very frustrating considering all the high humidity we've had. 

Storms this afternoon look spotty. I hope we get lucky with something but it's only a slim chance. I'll probably be watering the vegetable garden again. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I'm not gonna get my hopes up too high for Friday into the weekend after what has happened the last few weeks. As Manda said, the lack of rain this summer has been very frustrating considering all the high humidity we've had. 

Storms this afternoon look spotty. I hope we get lucky with something but it's only a slim chance. I'll probably be watering the vegetable garden again. 

Yeah at least give me sunny and dry if it's not going to rain. All these clouds and humidity is useless

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yes.  At least 2 above and this is against our highest set of 30 year normals.  Just seems near impossible to get a month 2 below normal at this point.

The only month in recent years we have been able to get something approaching regular cold departures has been November.

[TheClimateChanger]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only month in recent years we have been able to get something approaching regular cold departures has been November.

I was just noticed that when I was looking at some climate stats for the Ohio Valley region the other day. November is by far the month that's changed the least over the past 3 or 4 decades, which is odd. It might just be a mean reversion type thing, however. If you look at older historical data, November had previously been one of the fastest warming months of the 20th century.

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr has some storms now across parts of nj and north and east of the city

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah at least give me sunny and dry if it's not going to rain. All these clouds and humidity is useless

Agreed. We have had lots of cloudy days since the start of last week. 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah at least give me sunny and dry if it's not going to rain. All these clouds and humidity is useless

this has to be ewr's least rainy humid month

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr has some storms now across parts of nj and north and east of the city

Yep on the 14z run, but then the HRRR took away our storms on the 15z run lol. Who the heck knows. A few areas will get lucky this afternoon and evening, but too bad it's only isolated activity. 

[Dark Star]

53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep on the 14z run, but then the HRRR took away our storms on the 15z run lol. Who the heck knows. A few areas will get lucky this afternoon and evening, but too bad it's only isolated activity. 

I take it the HRRR uses the most recent sounding data?  It seems to change by the hour, sometimes quite drastically.  

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I was just noticed that when I was looking at some climate stats for the Ohio Valley region the other day. November is by far the month that's changed the least over the past 3 or 4 decades, which is odd. It might just be a mean reversion type thing, however. If you look at older historical data, November had previously been one of the fastest warming months of the 20th century.

It’s one of the few times of the year when MJO 5 is cold for us. With the record WPAC warm pool most other MJO 4-7 periods are warm. So November is the only real outlier month for us. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s one of the few times of the year when MJO 5 is cold for us. With the record WPAC warm pool most other MJO 4-7 periods are warm. So November is the only real outlier month for us. 

 

Interesting observation.

[forkyfork]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

yay

[FPizz]

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

yay

Haha, what an awful model

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Haha, what an awful model

it's still showing a cluster moving through. we just need storms to organize quickly where there's currently nothing 

[bluewave]

7th wettest July for Cape May and 6th driest at SMQ. 

 

Time Series Summary for CAPE MAY 2 NW, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1959	10.52	0
2	1956	8.55	0
3	2000	8.38	0
4	2017	8.33	0
5	1945	7.99	0
6	1958	7.21	0
7	2024	6.85	4
8	1989	6.60	0
-	1926	6.60	0
9	1896	6.55	16
10	2001	6.17	0

 

Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	0.07	2
2	2003	0.10	25
3	1999	0.61	0
4	2022	0.86	0
5	2002	1.00	0
6	2024	1.64	1
7	2015	1.88	0
8	2001	2.19	0
9	2005	2.78	0
10	2011	2.90	0

[donsutherland1]

July finished with a preliminary mean temperature of 79.7° in New York City. That was 2.2° above normal.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible. Heat will likely return during the first week in August.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that August will likely be warmer than normal. However, there is a possibility that the second week of the month could feature a cool shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall.

The SOI was -23.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.407 today.

This will be the last discussion until after mid-August.