July 2024

[MANDA]

 A whopping .26" overnight.  I'll take it but I sure would like more.  Not likely today and not so sure about tonight either.

[FPizz]

.06"

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

A repeat of 2 weeks ago  Initial forecasts for a wet week, then essentially just a few scattered showers?

The forecast for 2 weeks ago was a TOTAL BUST.  Below was the forecast for this week.  I'll let the panel decide...

Zone Forecast Product
National Weather Service New York NY
501 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

NYZ072-220500-
New York (Manhattan)-
501 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with
a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Humid with lows
in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper
80s. Southeast winds around 5 mph, becoming south in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Humid with lows in the lower 70s.
South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent. Heat index
values in the upper 90s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Highs
in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was also going to be hit and miss. Some places are doing quite well

Close to 7 inches here for the month but we have gotten hammered every time-had over an inch last night

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

 A whopping .26" overnight.  I'll take it but I sure would like more.  Not likely today and not so sure about tonight either.

Only 0.06" here overnight. We'll have to see about the potential batch of rain for late tonight into tomorrow morning. Hopefully we'll get some, but for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon it's looking dry for most of the area. Activity with the front Thursday doesn't look impressive at all.

I know Long Island got lucky yesterday and last night, but other than that this week is looking like a bust. As Dark Star said, it's looking like 2 weeks ago when the forecast was for a very wet week but we ended up getting very little. Right now I'm just hoping we have a little batch of rain early tomorrow morning that's just enough to give the garden a watering. 

[jm1220]

Heavy shower in Melville. 

[SACRUS]

Atlantic ridge trended a bit weaker, heaviest rains were south 

 

[doncat]

0.23" here since yesterday, 4.45" for month.

[SACRUS]

 

84 / 70

 

a bit more sun now

 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Only 0.06" here overnight. We'll have to see about the potential batch of rain for late tonight into tomorrow morning. Hopefully we'll get some, but for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon it's looking dry for most of the area. Activity with the front Thursday doesn't look impressive at all.

I know Long Island got lucky yesterday and last night, but other than that this week is looking like a bust. As Dark Star said, it's looking like 2 weeks ago when the forecast was for a very wet week but we ended up getting very little. Right now I'm just hoping we have a little batch of rain early tomorrow morning that's just enough to give the garden a watering. 

Upton's forecast looks way too bullish based on model output 

[steve392]

1/2" of rain overnight. Overcast and just looks like skies want to open up at any time. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Atlantic ridge trended a bit weaker, heaviest rains were south 

 

Didn't that kind of happen the last time we were supposed to have a wet week

[bluewave]

Fog and drizzle at times here today with a late July backdoor pattern due to the high pressure to the north pushing back against the Southeast ridge.

 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Didn't that kind of happen the last time we were supposed to have a wet week

Yep. Like we've talked about, big hyped heavy rain forecasts tend to bust and then we get hit when there's only a slight chance. That's the way it has worked out here this summer. 

[lee59]

On and off light showers here today, one right now. Total since midnight .16 and for this event .60

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Didn't that kind of happen the last time we were supposed to have a wet week

Last time heaviest rains went north, as ridge was stronger, this time front/boundary best rain is south

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. Like we've talked about, big hyped heavy rain forecasts tend to bust and then we get hit when there's only a slight chance. That's the way it has worked out here this summer. 

Kind of like Wind advisories in the winter-most seem to bust then you get a big wind event out of nowhere

[donsutherland1]

Near normal readings will prevail through the week. Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight through Thursday. Warmer air will begin to arrive to close the weekend. There is some potential that the month could end on a hot note.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +4.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.170 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0° (2.5° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1908 and 2020 as the 8th hottest July on record.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Have major breaks in the clouds. Blue sky now 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Last time heaviest rains went north, as ridge was stronger, this time front/boundary best rain is south

Looking forward to getting this soupy airmass out of here. Fri/the weekend look great. 

[qg_omega]

Rounds of rain not happening

[gravitylover]

Our central AC crapped out a few days ago These dews are killing me! Of course the town is a few days out for approving the electrical permit 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Our central AC crapped out a few days ago These dews are killing me! Of course the town is a few days out for approving the electrical permit 

I genuinely feel for you. Nothing worse than trying to sleep in pea soup (no matter the temperature, actually).  I hope that you get an AC back up and running soon!

[winterwx21]

I see most of tonight's models have the batch of rain for tomorrow morning to midday mostly missing to the south and east, but it's gonna be close. With Thursday looking mostly dry now, I'm really hoping we see something decent tomorrow morning. It would be pretty bad to end up getting nothing this week after all the heavy rain forecasts, especially considering it will be dry for several days starting on Friday. The vegetable gardens really could use a drink. Hopefully tomorrow morning, but it looks very iffy right now. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs

BLM: 88
ACY: 87
New Brnswck: 87
EWR: 86
PHL: 86
JFK: 85
TTN: 84
TEB:  82
NYC: 81
ISP: 79
LGA: 79

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2002)
NYC: 97 (2010)
LGA: 98 (2022)
JFK: 97 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1947)
NYC: 56 (1893)
LGA: 58: (1992)
JFK: 58 (1997)

Historical:

 

1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum)

1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations.

Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned.

Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description."  The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum.

1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O'Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008.

 

 

[Rtd208]

[winterwarlock]

Just .10 all week..what happened to the rain and why is 5-7 day modelling this bad

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Just .10 all week..what happened to the rain and why is 5-7 day modelling this bad

Any rain over the summer unless it’s a large scale synoptic system is widely scattered. I happen to be lucky this summer but others develop flash droughts. 

[Brian5671]

Radar doesnt look great for much today-looks south and north