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2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

7th straight day of rain...now over 2.5 inches in a week

 

It can stop raining ..we have enough

I got 0.72" here tonight. 1.90 over the last 5 days. I agree, we've had enough rain and could use a drying out period now.

Looks like a nice dry period the next 5 days with lower humidity and near normal summer temps. I'm looking forward to it.

The high humidity with rain chances will come back on Tuesday. By then I'll be wanting rain again. 

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The storm that moved through between 10:30 and 11:00 pm had the most lightning flashes since moving up here. The .89 for the day brings the rainfall total here up to 14th place for July so far. It was one of the few times that the 3rd round of storms on the day was the heaviest with the most lightning.
 

IMG_0536.thumb.jpeg.28902cf686dd02a6810e1e261ee73ba5.jpeg
 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1971 8.73 0
2 2009 8.60 0
3 2023 8.22 2
4 2021 6.82 0
- 1953 6.82 0
5 1960 6.08 0
6 1956 5.25 0
7 2008 4.85 0
8 2019 4.83 0
9 2004 4.78 0
10 1969 4.73 0
11 1967 4.17 0
12 2018 4.06 0
13 1959 4.04 0
14 2024 3.84 14
15 1950 3.83 0
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Both the EPS and GEFS continue the active convection pattern going forward. We finally get a break from the major 95° to 100° heat. The front that lowers the temperatures and dew points here next few days comes back north with numerous waves of low pressure riding along it into late July.

 

IMG_0541.thumb.png.5c239e9de8c5249299e367f68b3cbf68.png
IMG_0540.thumb.png.a58fc169ef07559bbad09d58b09a5148.png

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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Whoever still thinks this isn't a top 2-3 hottest summers is fooling themselves.

It's probably hottest once you factor the humidity 

Yeah, it has been. First July that a place like SMQ had an average max 74.7° dew point and maximum average daily heat index of 98.0° .

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=SMQ&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

IMG_0543.thumb.png.481e3a2fd1e036dbf5f82a0019b7110e.png

IMG_0544.thumb.png.91bead77782e459c5e9911230763bcd9.png

 

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22 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Look at this photo I found on Wikimedia dated May 24, 2024. This is absolutely absurd. Who was the decisionmaker that identified this as an appropriate location to install the ASOS?  It doesn't comply with any siting standards. Most backyard thermometers are more reliably sited than this.

800px-2024-05-24_17_37_43_View_south_acr

Thanks very much for posting that updated picture. It shows how the growth has even become more dense in recent years. The interesting thing is that the name attached to the photo is from a lead NWS forecaster in DC that used to be an active poster in our forum years ago. Ray is a really good guy that maintains a great winter storm archive. My guess is that he had to see the site in person since it has been running so much lower than surrounding sites. 
 

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2024-05-24_17_49_58_View_south_across_the_Central_Park_Automated_Surface_Observing_System_(ASOS)_in_Central_Park,_Manhattan,_New_York_City,_New_York.jpg

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74 / 71   1.62 in the bucket yesterday.   Front meandering just south of us and slow to push south.  Should dry out and clear up later but mostly cloudy through the noon hour at least if not most the early afternoon. Break in the heat with mainly mid - upper 80s.   Friday - nicest day, dry and warm - near normal.  Sat warming back up and with front near by perhaps some scattered storms and mainly cloudy before Sun warm/humid.   The Atlantic ridge keeps the EC under ridging with the continued warm-hot / humid and frequent storm with trough back into the MW and ridge west.  Beyond next weekend flow could go a bit flatter with more heat coming east (after the 29th).

 

7/18 - 7/19:   Break in heat, near normal
7/20 - 7/28:  Warm-hot, Humid, Frequent storm chances (chance for 90/low 90s)
7/29 - beyond :  Overall war - hot - could see stronger heat come east.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

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22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Next week with the Atlantic ridge keeping the humid/tropical flow and warm here - wettest in the MA/SE, but frewuent storm chances.  

 

p168i.gif?1720886849

If the WAR verifies stronger than forecast again then those totals may begin to shifter further north over time as the month continues. 

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13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

0” on west babylon last night. Rain just missed me by a few miles. Crazy

Been very hit or miss. Relying on these lines of storms that die off east of the city 98% of the time doesn’t often do it. I’ve been lucky for once. Looking forward to the lower humidity for a few days before the steam bath returns. 

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

85 with a dew point of 63 here right now. Feels quite a bit better out there today. Dew points will get down to the mid to high 50s tomorrow .... that's going to feel great. 

Yep even with the dew point at 65 it might as well be the desert compared to the soup over the last week. 

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Generally fair and somewhat warmer than normal readings will prevail through the weekend. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward the middle of next week.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -31.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.244 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.2° (2.7° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 2011 as the 6th hottest July on record.

 

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