JetsPens87 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 13 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: Wouldn't be surprised to see some training convection in this instance 51 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Slow moving front as @bluewave called out butted up against record WAR was an easy recipe for this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 54 minutes ago, FPizz said: Nothing much after 15z on this model Can tell you're rooting for the rain end early tomorrow so it doesn't mess of your son's graduation party! I see 12z RGEM has it mainly over by late morning as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Water vapor loop shows nice south to north transport of tropical moisture. Pretty rare to see flow almost straight south to north. Most places should get some needed rains but some places will get drenched with training. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop180w.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Can tell you're rooting for the rain end early tomorrow so it doesn't mess of your son's graduation party! I see 12z RGEM has it mainly over by late morning as well. Yes! I don't mind the soaking as long as it is done by 12 or so. Most models minus the one NAM so far have it ending around noonish. I'd take a nice 1-1.5" before then though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 I 95 special on the RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I 95 special on the RGEM Hopefully it’s correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 it looked like a fall day when i went outside this morning there were leaves down everywhere something you do not expect in mid july.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Nice, consistent guidance from the regional, shorter term models. Deluge on the 12Z NAM from 8 am to 2 pm tomorrow vs. a few nuisance showers on the RGEM (RDPS). Makes for easy forecasting, lol. Like most, hoping for the RGEM to be right - have a disc golf tourney tomorrow at Rutgers (50th annual Jersey Jam) and DG in the rain sucks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 On and off showers here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Drenching in Melville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 just a light shower thus far today, trickle in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 I’m in East Northport today. Heavy rain and thunder rolling in currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2024 Author Share Posted July 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, FPizz said: Ukie going to be a big bust for areas well north and west that looked to jackpot a day or two ago. Not saying ukie is right but then trend is for the heaviest amounts along the I95 corridor on eastward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: it looked like a fall day when i went outside this morning there were leaves down everywhere something you do not expect in mid july.. Don't forget to wear your raincoat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 15 minutes ago, FPizz said: Ukie Imagine that with a snow storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Nice, consistent guidance from the regional, shorter term models. Deluge on the 12Z NAM from 8 am to 2 pm tomorrow vs. a few nuisance showers on the RGEM (RDPS). Makes for easy forecasting, lol. Like most, hoping for the RGEM to be right - have a disc golf tourney tomorrow at Rutgers (50th annual Jersey Jam) and DG in the rain sucks. The models have been horrible IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: going to be a big bust for areas well north and west that looked to jackpot a day or two ago. Not saying ukie is right but then trend is for the heaviest amounts along the I95 corridor on eastward I'm starting to brace myself for under 1". Will see what radar looks like this evening and go from there but trend has been for along I-95 and south and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The models have been horrible IMO. This was supposed to be a NW hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Imagine that with a snow storm.... I don't have to imagine it, I've lived it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 New daily record high PWAT at OKX of 2.39 is 7th highest measured value. The environment across the region is extremely supportive of heavy rainfall, with PWs measured by morning U/A sounding reaching 2 to 2.3 inches (2.39 inches, a daily record at OKX) with coincident MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Max Values 08/19/1955 (03Z)2.62 in09/07/2008 (00Z)2.47 in07/23/2018 (12Z)2.45 in07/18/2019 (12Z)2.44 in08/11/2016 (12Z)2.41 in08/05/2010 (12Z)2.41 in08/19/2021 (12Z)2.40 in08/12/2016 (12Z)2.40 in07/18/2005 (12Z)2.40 in 07/12/2024(12z)2.39 in08/13/2016 (00Z)2.38 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Quick half inch here with those storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Big bust on the rain today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big bust on the rain today yes and no, most of the rainfall is expected over night, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2024 Author Share Posted July 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: yes and no, most of the rainfall is expected over night, no? Most models had some activity this afternoon with the heaviest at night into tomorrow morning. Latest hrrr has very little thru 6am now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big bust on the rain today Hopefully it's coming for tomorrow morning, but I'm starting to become a little worried that this is an event mainly for the coast with only spotty activity to the north and west. It's very dry here, so it's going to be rough if we don't get any significant rain before the big heat wave. I'm still fairly optimistic about tomorrow morning, but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: yes and no, most of the rainfall is expected over night, no? The rain shield has shifted east with a big cutoff to the north of NYC. I had some showers this morning but dry now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 LMAO! I trust the HRRR about as much as a wet fart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Never even heard tge rain this morning. Picked up 1/4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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