Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Radar looks iffy for anything this PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LMAO! I trust the HRRR about as much as a wet fart. This looks more realistic than the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Some breaks in the clouds and up to 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big bust on the rain today I held off fertilizing the lawn in anticipation of 2-4 inches of rain and possibility that the fertilizer is mostly washed away. I maybe should have gone ahead and fertilized. We have had two very light rains all since Tuesday. Today's was more a misting and sprinkles. I guess we will see what happens overnight, we could use some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 34 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LMAO! I trust the HRRR about as much as a wet fart. Radar looks awful for much more outside of S NJ. So it might well be on point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 just evaporates north of Atlantic City/Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Radar looks awful for much more outside of S NJ. So it might well be on point. The point of my post is not that what it is showing is wrong but how it can have such wild swings from run to run. I am not a fan of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The rain shield has shifted east with a big cutoff to the north of NYC. I had some showers this morning but dry now. Out east of Central Suffolk there has been plenty of rain which was not supposed to maintain itself all day as stationary front was expected to move northwest. Nope. Central Suffolk and east have seen plenty of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 18z run of HRRR still has a decent amount of activity for tomorrow morning. Hopefully it will be a case of delayed but not denied for heavy rain this week. It has been a little frustrating having to wait this long, since originally it appeared that we'd have good rain chances for most of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Woodbine, NJ has been the rainfall leader across the area since June 30th with 5.26” for this event so far and a total of 11.69”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Yeah this sucked. At least it's cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2024 Author Share Posted July 12, 2024 Nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam lol NAM 3km says Middlesex County is gonna get hit hard with 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next couple hours, lol. I'll just assume it's wrong. That's an insane overhyping model. I remember on 4th of July night it had some areas getting 6 to 9 inches of rain, when in fact it was only a quarter to half inch in spots. Horrible model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2024 Author Share Posted July 12, 2024 Just now, winterwx21 said: NAM 3km says Middlesex County is gonna get hit hard with 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next couple hours, lol. I'll just assume it's wrong. That's an insane overhyping model. I remember on 4th of July night it had some areas getting 6 to 9 inches of rain, when in fact it was only a quarter to half inch in spots. Horrible model. But even the regular nam just went from 1 to 2 to half an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: But even the regular nam just went from 1 to 2 to half an inch Yeah both NAM models are bad. HRRR is bad. Who knows. All we can do it keep an eye on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam lol https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 this has been poorly modeled-radar/now cast will do best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: this has been poorly modeled-radar/now cast will do best. The heaviest for places like LI and Southern CT will probably be from tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 High PWATS for weeks now and very little to show for it in the rain department 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Things looked so promising in the morning and then that was it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Things looked so promising in the morning and then that was it let's see what happens maybe those returns over S NJ hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 A more concentrated area of rainfall is ongoing over Southern VA and Eastern NC. It is moving north. Maybe that is what NWS/WPC is thinking with Flood Watches and Excessive outlook. Radar looks unimpressive for most over the next several hours except SE NJ which has been soaked already today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 18Z RGEM is very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 Just now, Brian5671 said: 18Z RGEM is very wet Tell that to the people in NW NJ. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 The action in eastern NC/VA is what gets us later if the RGEM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Tell that to the people in NW NJ. The western solutions disappears a day or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 I will tell you one thing. Whatever areas get in on the rain it's going to come down in buckets. It is very muggy out there. Current temp 85/DP 77/RH 76% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2024 Share Posted July 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The western solutions disappears a day or two ago Well if thats the case then the WPC wouldn't have NW NJ in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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