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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 If this is a strong 3 or 4 LF, surge will be catastrophic..I saw wave heights modeled 40-50ft. on top of that 10-15ft.  Better hope it jogs south and "only" grazes TPB, or a mega-collpase in short time, because that's a landscape changer 

Just envision a 10-mile-wide tornado akin to Andrew and surge of Camille.

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6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 If this is a strong 3 or 4 LF, surge will be catastrophic..I saw wave heights modeled 40-50ft. on top of that 10-15ft.  Better hope it jogs south and "only" grazes TPB, or a mega-collpase in short time, because that's a landscape changer 

That whole coast from TB to Naples is heavily developed and populated so a major catastrophe is imminent and unavoidable.  

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58 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 If this is a strong 3 or 4 LF, surge will be catastrophic..I saw wave heights modeled 40-50ft. on top of that 10-15ft.  Better hope it jogs south and "only" grazes TPB, or a mega-collpase in short time, because that's a landscape changer 

It's pretty much effed now after Helene. I go to that area a couple times a year. My friend said a lot of businesses aren't going to rebuild. Which maybe is a good thing.

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18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

It's pretty much effed now after Helene. I go to that area a couple times a year. My friend said a lot of businesses aren't going to rebuild. Which maybe is a good thing.

Sarasota is too, that's where we go since a friend lets us use her condo, the whole shopping/restaurant center near the water was flooded after the last one, this one looks to be worse, not sure if they even cleaned up from Helene.

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3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Sarasota is too, that's where we go since a friend lets us use her condo, the whole shopping/restaurant center near the water was flooded after the last one, this one looks to be worse, not sure if they even cleaned up from Helene.

Ex’s parents are in Port Charlotte and I have family friends in Venice so I’m very familiar with that whole area. It makes me sick to imagine that area getting wiped out.

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7 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

barrier islands move, they aren't a place for permanent development

I hope there's something left of them. Have you ever been to Caladesi island? Absolutely gorgeous. Always ranks in the top 10 of beaches in the US.

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17 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

haven't been to Florida since I was a teenager 40 years ago

with any luck, I'll never go again

You've been to the wrong spot. I was a Florida hater until I started going to that area. And 40 years is a long time.

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I usually don't follow the tropics, but I find myself becoming fascinated with this storm.  Things have been so boring weather-wise this summer, but we just finished one devastating storm a week ago and now another has formed... with maybe additional in the pipeline?

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Must be said.
This doesn't even come close to tracking a Nor'easter (Blizzards)
A nice gentle snowfall with 70mph. winds, accumulations 4"/hr. 
Sure, some power-outages and travel standstills BUT at least building stay intact.
A 20' surge and 2-3X the wind-force is a completely different BEAST.
I'm fully expecting the power outage here for 5+ days.      

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2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Sarasota is too, that's where we go since a friend lets us use her condo, the whole shopping/restaurant center near the water was flooded after the last one, this one looks to be worse, not sure if they even cleaned up from Helene.

My grandmother has had a beachfront condo in Siesta Key for sixty years and had never seen storm surge reach her building until Helene. Crazy to think that she will likely see something far worse Wednesday...or rather won't see. It took some convincing, but we finally got her to go inland today. The town is still a mess from what I hear.

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25 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Must be said.
This doesn't even come close to tracking a Nor'easter (Blizzards)
A nice gentle snowfall with 70mph. winds, accumulations 4"/hr. 
Sure, some power-outages and travel standstills BUT at least building stay intact.
A 20' surge and 2-3X the wind-force is a completely different BEAST.
I'm fully expecting the power outage here for 5+ days.      

Obviously the surge on the W Coast will be insane but this will have some pretty dramatic wind and rain right across the peninsula. Lots of tree damage,  power outages and fresh water flooding.

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I usually don't follow the tropics, but I find myself becoming fascinated with this storm.  Things have been so boring weather-wise this summer, but we just finished one devastating storm a week ago and now another has formed... with maybe additional in the pipeline?

Well said, ramped up quick
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21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

My grandmother has had a beachfront condo in Siesta Key for sixty years and had never seen storm surge reach her building until Helene. Crazy to think that she will likely see something far worse Wednesday...or rather won't see. It took some convincing, but we finally got her to go inland today. The town is still a mess from what I hear.

There are already traffic jams with people leaving, so that's a good thing.

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39 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Must be said.
This doesn't even come close to tracking a Nor'easter (Blizzards)
A nice gentle snowfall with 70mph. winds, accumulations 4"/hr. 
Sure, some power-outages and travel standstills BUT at least building stay intact.
A 20' surge and 2-3X the wind-force is a completely different BEAST.
I'm fully expecting the power outage here for 5+ days.      

You have a genny?

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38 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You have a genny?

Unfortunately, no. I did at my first house here a Generac. Just haven't gotten around to getting one at the new place. No portable generators in stock anywhere in the state. Nice to see the highways jammed, people heeding the warnings and threat. 
ERC in progress. What a Monster   

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12 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

Must be said.
This doesn't even come close to tracking a Nor'easter (Blizzards)
A nice gentle snowfall with 70mph. winds, accumulations 4"/hr. 
Sure, some power-outages and travel standstills BUT at least building stay intact.
A 20' surge and 2-3X the wind-force is a completely different BEAST.
I'm fully expecting the power outage here for 5+ days.      

The Feb 1978 blizzard caused 99 deaths and destroyed or caused major damage to 1700 single-family houses.  Peak gust was 92 mph at CHH.  These numbers pale compared to Helene (and likely Milton as well) but are still significant, perhaps the highest since 3/1888.

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