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Jan 19th Snow on Snow: the this always works until it doesn't thread


psuhoffman
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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You guys thought i was kidding last night when I said this was in the bag once thread #2 started. A northern stream wave trending south at gametime. @psuhoffman who would've thought?

i've been looking at the runs and not necessarily seeing the jumps south others are mentioning. It must be a litttle bit, but is it not more the shortwave trending stronger and our favorable position within the left exit region of the jet stream?

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Always better when LWX has to play catch up.  :tomato:
StormTotalSnowWeb1.jpg

When they start off on the low side, you tend to see them uptick at game time. It’s when they start off bullish that you’re like shit, things can only go south from here. Since we’re into thread and forecast superstitions these days
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53 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

IMG_7758.jpeg.f3332c5fe4da6a58e61ab24be6c1368d.jpeg

Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. 
 

Forecast

Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right

Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right

Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) 

Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys)

Zone E: 5-10” 

Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7”

Usually being zone A means top notch as A is the best.  You try to get a grade of A on most things.  Not a D.  This zone A means: awful, atrocious, agonizing, awfuckthis, and areyoukiddingme.  

 

But it happens.  N&W will get to enjoy and thats fine.  Got some snow this week.  Watching it fall again for a bit will be nice too.  The new thread didn't bring it back for everyone.  It still needed a souther, diggier, wetter, more jet streakier pointed at Norfolk to be good for lets say Fredricksburg north.  Can't win them all.

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Just now, AlexD1990 said:

DT on FB talking about upping his numbers on his next snowfall map :rolleyes:

Well he had 1” for most of us on first guess. So hopefully second provisional forecast map is better.

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