NEG NAO Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 getting back to the weather - CMC closer to the coast - benchmark track 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, NEG NAO said: getting back to the weather - CMC closer to the coast It's a 1 to 3" event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It's a 1 to 3" event agreed thats what I posted yesterday agreeing with Walt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I’m going with what wdrag said. It’s coming. I just hope it’s snow on LI. I’ll take 1-3 and cold air for a few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 would be nice if there was some moderating in here so this thread doesn't turn into half nonsense postsI resemble that remark.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Both GFS and CMC are basically showing a wave on an Arctic front. Energy too strung out. Agree with Walt and others this looks like a 1-3" event with higher than 10:1 ratios more inland locations deeper into the colder air. We'll see what EURO shows but I think we are seeing close to a final solution with GFS / CMC this morning. There will be some adjustments over the next 72 hours but the general event I think is showing some clarity this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: would be nice if there was some moderating in here so this thread doesn't turn into half nonsense posts Imagine thinking we live here. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Right now this looks like a 1-3/2-4 type event on Tuesday with more on Friday which is still TBD and the GFS goes a little crazy on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: just trying to keep this forum as professional and readable as possible You must be fun at parties. Christ. It’s a beautiful Saturday morning. Lighten up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Ukie's a nice hit even for the coast 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Ukie just came in with a pretty nice 2 to 5 inch event. I agree with a 1 to 3 inch call right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Ukie just came in with a pretty nice 2 to 5 inch event. I agree with a 1 to 3 inch call right now. Ukie has been very consistent with this event. Over time the totals have come down some however the axis of expected accumulation has remained basically the same. It may or may not bust ultimately however I have to like that consistency. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The GFS finally came around to the idea of some snow...I'd be cautious somewhat about the "finger" band of snow...often times models do not see the coastal stealing the show just yet at this range...so anything over 2 inches with that feature is unlikely even if some runs try to show crazy amounts from it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 50 minutes ago, North and West said: I resemble that remark. . 42 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Imagine thinking we live here. 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: You must be fun at parties. Christ. It’s a beautiful Saturday morning. Lighten up Good late morning all. “It’s a wonderful day in the neighborhood” stay well and happy, as always …. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The UK saves Christmas, lol... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 58 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Ukie has been very consistent with this event. Over time the totals have come down some however the axis of expected accumulation has remained basically the same. It may or may not bust ultimately however I have to like that consistency. It still is the 2nd best model after the ECMWF (for 5-day 500 mbar pressure anomalies)... https://opensnow.com/news/post/weather-forecast-models-explained Edit: that graph is from 2019; currntly, UK and CMC are essentially tied for 2nd after the Euro, with the GFS, sadly, 4th as per the link below for the past month. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I’m not an expert by any means. So I’m not talking “at” anyone but isn’t it just such common knowledge to wait for a big storm to pass (which just did) before using the models for the next storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I wish the timing was more night time. 1-3 urban areas in day…eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I wish the timing was more night time. 1-3 urban areas in day…eh It's below freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Y HOI e is Canadian. It’s usually slightly warm. Higher qpd less snow. We have time. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I wish the timing was more night time. 1-3 urban areas in day…eh I never break out the equipment for 1-3 around here; totals here are almost always on the low end so I'd expect a little more than a dusting. Just can't get it together the last few years, and it is on here that I have always read to throw in the towel after Jan 15. Well, we got two days....there was a recent article in Nature that said snow loss is nonlinear; when the tipping point comes you just lose it. Are we there? Don't know. The person who summed up the article talked about this then turned around and said the article was mostly about snowpack, which is different. Whatever the case may be, there are parts of my 2019 Craftsman that are dry rotting already. Not sure if its worth replacing at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I wish the timing was more night time. 1-3 urban areas in day…eh it's January and day time snow looks a lot better what use is 6 inches of snow if you can't really see it fall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's below freezing also-- it's January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 If you're disappointed in the dwindling snowfall amounts for this storm, go over to the January thread (GFS is huge for 1/19-1/20, which of course is still a week away). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it's January and day time snow looks a lot better what use is 6 inches of snow if you can't really see it fall? Do you have floodlights outside your house? If not consider getting them for this purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 43 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’m not an expert by any means. So I’m not talking “at” anyone but isn’t it just such common knowledge to wait for a big storm to pass (which just did) before using the models for the next storm Modeling is constantly improving. Some of the old rules of thumb are not nearly as necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: If you're disappointed in the dwindling snowfall amounts for this storm, go over to the January thread (GFS is huge for 1/19-1/20, which of course is still a week away). The big question will be is does it keep the storm. Like always we will follow the other models to see what they do with it. FWIW the 12z ensembles do have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Do you have floodlights outside your house? If not consider getting them for this purpose. It just doesn't feel the same because with daylight you see the entire snowy landscape, with trees in the distance blanketed with white, as well as roads, cartops and rooftops. I have outside lights but they only show a limited area underneath the lights with falling snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro closer to the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro has mood flakes Good for dusting up surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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