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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll run circles defining the hybrids. We've done it many times lol.

 

Any storm that jumps is called a Miller b because it looks like one but me and you dont see it that way. Barolclinic transfers from a low approaching from the deep south is not a Miller b in my book. They usually have big juicy WAA in front. A defining difference from a NS Miller B that never gets going until it's gaining latitude. Just my take and separates the 2 in my brain with how I view the possibilities.

To me it depends how far southeast of the primary the secondary low develops...If it's a center jump, that's an A to me. 

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8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not worth fretting about.  Column is fine and heavy snow accumulates.  Our risk is track.

Ya those depth maps are good in lighter events but in heavy rates and marginal temps they can be way low. If it snows hard it will accumulate. 

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50 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. 

Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet. 

In a similar vein, I concluded and stated at  Christmas that if the pattern was not changed by 1/10 then it would not change, I have to give kudos to those who said “Nino…be patient” You were correct . I also contend that a delay pattern was underway that needed to cease. I too knew it was a nino and that’s why I was 50/50 on how much trouble we were in. Again though, kudos to the who persistently offered “ nino..be patient “

I want to ask if others are having this ? It’s been so long time since having a reasonably good potential for a big event to follow well in advance that I Have LOST my conscious contact with”  I have a weather event to follow”  Any body else? I’ve been like dinner snd  then maybe go watch Washington  Texas after wife time,

Nothing in the noggin about weather until …Oops…Snow Event To Follow!!

Anybody else?

 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Not to get too far off-topic (but we're not in storm mode or anything yet!)...but yeah, they are large birds!!  And you can hear their call quite clearly and far away (very distinctive).  They don't seem to mind people just sitting there watching them even fairly close.  I'd say I was a few yards down from this tree looking up at him, and was using a 500mm lens when I took that.  I literally took a dozen or so shots at different angles, and saved the better ones (some were blurry because his head was moving too fast).

The ones here are 15” long.  You are lucky because these here are very flighty and I can’t approach. They just run right up the tree and into their hole 

 

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On 12/30/2023 at 11:33 AM, psuhoffman said:

Not bothered by that. It takes an identical track and similar local evolution to Feb 5 2010. (Not expecting the same results Feb 2010 stalled for 12 hours) The precip wouldn’t likely be that shunted given its STJ origins.  That’s a typical long range error. Why I get shown as fringed on these way more than it actually happens. 

 

6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

IMG_5678.jpgjust for fun cips analogs for the 7th

Look at number 1 

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1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. 

Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet. 

Honestly up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic in my winter weather outlooks I do not retool until January 20th each year that is my magic date.  This year I was going for 20-35" in Central Delaware County in Extreme SE PA. 

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Is that estimated after we get horsepissed on three days later?

I’ll tell ya that I think a deep snow cover might change that one too. I could easily see a further east track and tons of cad. Still a cutter/jumper but front end thump to icy

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