January 2024 -- Discussion

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This thread consist of a lack of logical thinking.  Like best to assume guidance is wrong so people aren’t disappointed.  Does everyone have an emotional age of 9?

We want snow and we're going to stamp our feet until we get it.

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Show the snow or show the door on way out. 

Put down the beer.  It’s past your bedtime.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This thread consist of a lack of logical thinking.  Like best to assume guidance is wrong so people aren’t disappointed.  Does everyone have an emotional age of 9?

Most posters here are simply sick and tired of the promises. If it doesn’t snow a lot .  One or two snowfalls in Jan.. ok sure .. that’s a change.. from 0.0 to 2.6. But who does that satisfy other than some hooker?

[Torch Tiger]

just wow

[Torch Tiger]

wxwatcher on-call in the panic room!  it's getting close to the brink for those folks

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most posters here are simply sick and tired of the promises. If it doesn’t snow a lot .  One or two snowfalls in Jan.. ok sure .. that’s a change.. from 0.0 to 2.6. But who does that satisfy other than some hooker?

When it comes down to it, no one can promise what weather is going to do. The best models can't predict what's going to happen two weeks out, so how the hell can one person predict what will happen? 

We've all seen those surprise storms that just come out of almost nowhere, we've also seen the big storm that's coming that then either disappears or get shunted out just a day or two before. The element of surprise is always a factor in weather. That's why no one can say what's going to happen until we get to the end of March and look back on what actually happened. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Wheres the voodoo in ‘I believe it when I see it?’

 

Here is a couple of pictures of bigfoot:

 

this one is my personal fav:

To be fair, most of those images are weeklies. We know not to trust those…esp past week 2. 
 

I do remember that fleeting time in late November (shown in the first image) when some guidance tried to make the second week of December much colder/stormier. That’s fair game, but it did flip back to showing meh pretty quick. The NAO verified but it didn’t have any staying power…so we only got a few days of BN temps, and the shouts shore did get that one snow event during that time. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Kevin, I realize you’re just busting balls - or at least I hope you are… – but just in case, no one promised jack shit. 

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

 oh man there are some gems !!

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of voodoo logic going on here.  

Turn it up , scan the weeklies 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw the 4-6th a bit more coherent in the 18z GEFS

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most posters here are simply sick and tired of the promises. If it doesn’t snow a lot .  One or two snowfalls in Jan.. ok sure .. that’s a change.. from 0.0 to 2.6. But who does that satisfy other than some hooker?

Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you get.

[moneypitmike]

On the upside, unless we continue to rain incessantly, we won't have much of a mud season.

Even better, maybe the gypsy moth catelpillars will all hatch in March with no foliaige to eat driving them to extinction.

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS Op finally throws a bone, Jan 6/7th

[UnitedWx]

9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most posters here are simply sick and tired of the promises. If it doesn’t snow a lot .  One or two snowfalls in Jan.. ok sure .. that’s a change.. from 0.0 to 2.6. But who does that satisfy other than some hooker?

Time to break out an old classic for D.I.T.

[Layman]

Spent a few days away to rest and relax - checking in to see what’s happening. 
Anyone else notice how warm and rainy it’s been? 
 

41.0 and 0.10” rain as of 6:45am

[512high]

6 minutes ago, Layman said:

Spent a few days away to rest and relax - checking in to see what’s happening. 
Anyone else notice how warm and rainy it’s been? 
 

41.0 and 0.10” rain as of 6:45am

lol go back and read the last 30 pages!

[jbenedet]

Jan 6 - 930’s in the GOM. 6z GFS. 

Wonky run much?

Point remains this is the best window for a big snowstorm in the east. Pattern doesn’t look good beyond it either, which brings it into even greater focus.

Looking at the teles, my “best guess” take is the current evolution is going to change this from a  NE threat to a Mid Atlantic/Southeast snow storm. Phase of Northern Stream/southern stream likely, but much further southwest. There’s some hints showing up on this in the GEFS/EPS with T 850/T surface anomalies positive to the north with deeply negative south of mason Dixon. 

Anyway, we watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS Op finally throws a bone, Jan 6/7th

Is this 6z?  

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Jan 6 - 930’s in the GOM. 6z GFS. 

Wonky run much?

Point remains this is the best window for a big snowstorm in the east. Pattern doesn’t look good beyond it either, which brings it into even greater focus.

Looking at the teles, my “best guess” take is the current evolution is going to change this from a  NE threat to a Mid Atlantic/Southeast snow storm. Phase of Northern Stream/southern stream likely, but much further S. There’s some hints showing up on this in the GEFS/EPS with T 850/T surface anomalies positive to the north with deeply negative south of mason Dixon. 

Anyway, we watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

overall synoptics aren't bad... BN heights over the 50/50 region, nice southern stream vort, blocking over the top, weak SW US ridge spike, and it's cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere as long as you're north of any LP that develops

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Jan 6 - 930’s in the GOM. 6z GFS. 

Wonky run much?

Point remains this is the best window for a big snowstorm in the east. Pattern doesn’t look good beyond it either, which brings it into even greater focus.

Looking at the teles, my “best guess” take is the current evolution is going to change this from a  NE threat to a Mid Atlantic/Southeast snow storm. Phase of Northern Stream/southern stream likely, but much further S. There’s some hints showing up on this in the GEFS/EPS with T 850/T surface anomalies positive to the north with deeply negative south of mason Dixon. 

Anyway, we watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6z and 18z are wonky more often than not…if it’s still there at 12z, that’ll be a positive. 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

overall synoptics aren't bad... BN heights over the 50/50 region, nice southern stream vort, blocking over the top, weak SW US ridge spike, and it's cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere as long as you're north of any LP that develops

Yea I’m not worried about ptype with this, as I believe it hooks up with the mid levels.

The +temp anomalies I’m seeing on guidance in the north has me thinking the real risk is in missing out is that it’s a southern snow storm—>mason dixon on south. That’s what is being hinted at. The Teles will also be primed to phasing during that window—early phase/cut-off,

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Jan 6 - 930’s in the GOM. 6z GFS. 

Wonky run much?

Point remains this is the best window for a big snowstorm in the east. Pattern doesn’t look good beyond it either, which brings it into even greater focus.

Looking at the teles, my “best guess” take is the current evolution is going to change this from a  NE threat to a Mid Atlantic/Southeast snow storm. Phase of Northern Stream/southern stream likely, but much further southwest. There’s some hints showing up on this in the GEFS/EPS with T 850/T surface anomalies positive to the north with deeply negative south of mason Dixon. 

Anyway, we watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

975mb to 938mb in 12 hours just a bit of deepening 

[DJln491]

Looks like 0z euro tried for something as well around the 6th but too far east, albeit less so than previous runs. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

975mb to 938mb in 12 hours just a bit of deepening 

Tossed 

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

overall synoptics aren't bad... BN heights over the 50/50 region, nice southern stream vort, blocking over the top, weak SW US ridge spike, and it's cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere as long as you're north of any LP that develops

Gonna be cut-off happy, me thinks. It’s generally colder so it does mean snow wherever that happens. I like south better than north right now. Gonna take some time for guidance to come around to it though. Big changes in the NAO still have to materialize.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed 

Ya think.  Lol.  Off hr runs equal crazy evolutions more often the last couple years. 

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… Basically, the normally inconsolable crowd in here is downright apoplectic, and cannot be penetrated with any form of rational thinking 

 

 

11 hours ago, weathafella said:

This thread consist of a lack of logical thinking.  Like best to assume guidance is wrong so people aren’t disappointed.  Does everyone have an emotional age of 9?

you guys must be new here

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 "I also included January 2015 that technically did not achieve major warming status, may have actually been an extreme stretched PV event, but does resemble the current event in evolution in the polar stratosphere.  But to my eye the event that looks most similar to the current event, at least as predicted by the models, is February 2010 and it has the advantage of being also a moderate to strong El Niño winter".

-Cohen

Maybe it all goes to shit and winter blows again, but at least I know I'm not crazy.

 

[CoastalWx]

Problem is this is not behaving like the 09-10 event.