January 2024 -- Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mean...you tell me.

Balance of November-December 2023 Outlook

December Analogs: 1953,1957,1965,1982,1986,1987,1991,1994,1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2018(x2)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

So we are now at Jan 20th with zero to date and temps 4 to 6 above average and no cause for concern?

I don’t think we get to Jan 20 with 0-2” but if so Most will see that if that is actually the case a BN winter snowfall is extremely likely for all in SNE ,  places further south that ave 15-25” can always make up that deficit, as unlikely as it would be . I just don’t like talkin hypotheticals that require 24 days of future zero’s , I don’t think it’s reasonable at this time at all

[MJO812]

Wow the models look like dookie moving forward. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To me, that just means the cold loads west first and maybe modifies some as it comes east, but its not a death knell. All I want is storms and seasonable temps.

I’ve come to terms with my climo living on the coastal plain, but im going to be up north skiing a lot. That’s why I’m concerned about what’s going on in NNE this year. I’m actually more pissed about the warmth and snowmelt in NNE than getting skunked at home. Hopefully the pattern improves enough that they can build a snowpack and sustain it the rest of the winter.

[George001]

Give me a hugger that rains for my area and buries NNE. Good skiing conditions >>>>>>> snow at home. 

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, its disappointing that December was warmer than expected and entirely devoid of snowfall, sure.....but its not a huge deal because I didn't expect a good month. And it doesn't change how I feel about latter January and February. No...not at all.

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

That is actually vomit inducing. Again, I can live with missing storms but it isn’t supposed to be this warm in January. Winter is defined by more than just the total seasonal snowfall, a truly good winter actually feels and looks like winter. This means plenty of cold with a sustained snowpack. Bare ground near the Canadian border isn’t normal or expected. It sucks 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

Well, for the sake of winter and for all of us winter enthusiasts, let's hope that you are wrong. I don't think you really care one way or the other because you like to stir the pot and just annoy people, but, still hope that you're wrong

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

Sure, which I have pointed out...why is that relevant? I also said the same thing in 2014 and 2015......

You don't see why it will look different in week 4..great.

Carry on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love how some folks exercise selective memory, too....no mention of the predicted SSW and ultimate high latitude blocking that culminated in a 3' snow event 50 miles away from Boston last March.

[weatherwiz]

Using an OP static hour to quantify the pattern? 

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow the models look like dookie moving forward. 

Gfs say congrats the Valley floor of Vegas 

[NittanyWx]

On 12/26/2023 at 10:30 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

can we get through the first ten days of the month before canceling the entire winter? jesus christ

I can't blame weenies for being frustrated at a lot of early Jan forecasts.  It will end up warmer than many were preaching based on the H5 look of the Euro weeklies.  

 

I personally am not canceling winter and haven't seen many do that outside of complaining about mild weather. but this is another case of 'know your source' when viewing h5 forecasts in the week 3-4 range.  That said,  I think the erosion of mild Pac air is somewhat less hostile than what we're gettng in early Jan

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I can't blame weenies for being frustrated at a lot of early Jan forecasts.  It will end up warmer than many were preaching based on the H5 look of the Euro weeklies.  

 

I personally am not canceling winter and haven't seen many do that outside of complaining about mild weather. but this is another case of 'know your source' when viewing h5 forecasts in the week 3-4 range.  That said,  I think the erosion of mild Pac air is somewhat less hostile than what we're gettng in early Jan

 

 

To be fair, early January on the H5 level looks more hostile than it did even a few days ago…look at the EPS valid 1/3 for the 00z 12/25 run versus last night. That 00z 12/25 run is definitely a colder look than last night…the flow has become more zonal near the Canadian border and the PNA ridge a bit flatter than was being advertised…it’s not a massive change hemispherically, but those subtleties can be the difference between a pretty blah AN boring outcome and a potential snowier/stormier outcome. That 12/25 look has a decent source region for Se Canada…so instead of 850 temp anomalies around -1 for SNE, we get +3  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I can't blame weenies for being frustrated at a lot of early Jan forecasts.  It will end up warmer than many were preaching based on the H5 look of the Euro weeklies.  

 

I personally am not canceling winter and haven't seen many do that outside of complaining about mild weather. but this is another case of 'know your source' when viewing h5 forecasts in the week 3-4 range.  That said,  I think the erosion of mild Pac air is somewhat less hostile than what we're gettng in early Jan

 

 

I will probably end up too cold in January...my honest guess. But you tell me how this has aged from early November:

January 2024 Outlook

January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2)

This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. 

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To be fair, early January on the H5 level looks more hostile than it did even a few days ago…look at the EPS valid 1/3 for the 00z 12/25 run versus last night. That 00z 12/25 run is definitely a colder look than last night…the flow has become more zonal near the Canadian border and the PNA ridge a bit flatter than was being advertised…it’s not a massive change hemispherically, but those subtleties can be the difference between a pretty blah AN boring outcome and a potential snowier/stormier outcome. That 12/25 look has a decent source region for Se Canada…so instead of 850 temp anomalies around -1 for SNE, we get +3  

 

You're comparing a short interval of time to a weekly mean h5 view though.

 

The source region is and was still garbage. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

You're comparing a short interval of time to a weekly mean thiugh

No those are both point forecasts valid 00z 1/3. 

[NittanyWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will probably end up too cold in January...my honest guess. But you tell me how this has aged from early November:

January 2024 Outlook

January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2)

This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. 

 

I think you should be feeling good about how this pattern looks at a long lead time.

 

I'm also not calling anyone out specifically.

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No those are both point forecasts valid 00z 1/3. 

 

You're missing what I'm saying...my post was about weekly h5 view on the EC weeklies for first week of Jan being the basis for a colder early Jan forecast.

 

A point forecast would be averaged into a week 3 mean...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

 

You're missing what I'm saying...my post was about weekly h5 view on the EC weeklies for first week of Jan being the basis for a colder early Jan forecast.

 

A point forecast would be averaged into a week 3 mean...

Oh I see what you’re saying…I still don’t 100% agree. We were consistently progged for N or BN heights here and that may not verify…

 

This is the 5 day mean from the 12/25 weeklies run from 00z 1/2 to 00z 1/7

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

I think you should be feeling good about how this pattern looks at a long lead time.

 

I'm also not calling anyone out specifically.

Oh, I know...just using your post as a launching pad, so to speak.

Its convenient how some of these folks are pointing out how they see no sign of change at WEEK 4, as we have other posters drawing attention to the significant discontinuity at DAY 4 . Keep in mind how guidance is likely to play catch up following any major strat warming. The issue maintaining objectivity is two-fold: 1) We have frustrated weenies 2) We have trolls preying on said frustration.

[mannynyc]

48 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

And yet 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Any guesses how long it would take for @MJO812to be neutered via emoji if he were to post signs of change at week 4?? Any takers??

[WinterWolf]

The ignore feature is very nice for me…if folks didn’t quote the trolls, it would be even better.  We all know who the trolls are, so don’t quote and engage…and you starve them out. Actually pretty simple.  
 

If for some reason this winter ends up with almost nothing come 3/31…they’ll be right for wrong reasons anyway…so who the f**k cares. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

And yet 

But they won’t post that…that’s how you know they are not genuine.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The ignore feature is very nice for me…if folks didn’t quote the trolls, it would be even better.  We all know who the trolls are, so don’t quote and engage…and you starve them out. Actually pretty simple.  
 

If for some reason this winter ends up with almost nothing come 3/31…they’ll be right for wrong reasons anyway…so who the f**k cares. 

The problem is they aren't vapid and mindless...they offer good insight, which is dangerous because they aren't using it to foster objectivity as they should. Instead, the aim is to passively aggressively elicit emotion from those invested in wintery pursuits and the quality of this place suffers for it because that is inimical to objectivity.

[NittanyWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I see what you’re saying…I still don’t 100% agree. We were consistently progged for N or BN heights here and that may not verify…

 

This is the 5 day mean from the 12/25 weeklies run from 00z 1/2 to 00z 1/7

 

Yeah I'm more looking at it from a week 3/4 prog from the EC weeklies than inside the week 2 frame.   I got a few charts I'm gonna share a bit later on today to articulate what I'm saying.  

 

As far as the EC Ens goes, it has had a bias for several weeks of heights and temps being progged too low d 8-15 for most of this winter.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Yeah I'm more looking at it from a week 3/4 prog from the EC weeklies than inside the week 2 frame.   I got a few charts I'm gonna share a bit later on today to articulate what I'm saying.  

 

As far as the EC Ens goes, it has had a bias for several weeks of heights and temps being progged too low d 8-15 for most of this winter.

Yeah don’t disagree there. I also don’t disagree that early January never looked brutally cold. To me it sort of looked near normal which is obviously a much colder look than the +5 December temps. But it may end up being more like +3 or something instead of near normal. 
 

We can still snow in that pattern, but it’s harder with a lower margin for error. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Yeah I'm more looking at it from a week 3/4 prog from the EC weeklies than inside the week 2 frame.   I got a few charts I'm gonna share a bit later on today to articulate what I'm saying.  

 

As far as the EC Ens goes, it has had a bias for several weeks of heights and temps being progged too low d 8-15 for most of this winter.

Problem is how long does that continue? That isn't how it earned the moniker "Dr. No".....

We should see the processes that will change that at work next month.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The problem is they aren't vapid and mindless...they offer good insight, which is dangerous because they aren't using it to foster objectivity as they should. Instead, the aim is to passively aggressively elicit emotion from those invested in wintery pursuits and the quality of this place suffers for it because that is inimical to objectivity.

But we/I don’t need that BS. And that fact  makes them even more disingenuous…and a reason to be ignored.  When you know better, and still continue to mislead, that’s even worse.  I ignore them now, and it has enhanced my experience here.  And that will be proven when Allsnow weenies me in 3..2..1.