CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: A monthly ensemble snow mean is always going to skew towards the mean. That cuts both ways. Let’s throw out DCA. BWI averages 6.4”. When it shows 4-5” that’s really bad. Worse than the raw number. When it shows 8-9” that’s really good. You’re never going to see it skewed that far from the mean for a period further than 15 days out. Once a snowy period gets within shorter range then ya you will see those crazy 20” means but never from the 15-40 day mean. Thus why posting/seriously discussing such crap is useless. I'll stick to the general idea, meaning the overall h5 look. Some skill there. Those who want to weenie out over 45 day snow maps on extended tools can do so in the thread dedicated to it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS, P8 or 9 please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Thus why posting/seriously discussing such crap is useless. I'll stick to the general idea, meaning the overall h5 look. Some skill there. Those who want to weenie out over 45 day snow maps on extended tools can do so in the thread dedicated to it. Nothing going on this week, chill a little, last night we had people talking about immigration. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: Nothing going on this week, chill a little, last night we had people talking about immigration. Not a good sign. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Zoom in. It's more like 6-10 across the area through early Feb. I had 20 inches here in January two years ago in a Nina. Everyone forgets Ji doesn't know where he lives 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 some greenland ridging popping up on GEFS, looks good 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: some greenland ridging popping up on GEFS, looks good Looking more EPS like. GEFS beginning to sniff the good stuff. 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 what a weenie pattern. the -NAO is a game changer if it's real. goes from cold and active to bigger storms quickly the split flow with vorts undercutting the -EPO is also great to see. all around really nice stuff 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 the Pacific is night and day from last year. not even close. wave breaking near the Aleutians should periodically pump ridging into AK 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 We rock. Perhaps we'll have a storm the first or second day the NAO goes negative! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 quadfecta of teleconnections on GEFS; -EPO/-NAO/-AO/+PNA this is how you open up potential for higher end events with cold air available 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 36 minutes ago, CAPE said: Thus why posting/seriously discussing such crap is useless. I'll stick to the general idea, meaning the overall h5 look. Some skill there. Those who want to weenie out over 45 day snow maps on extended tools can do so in the thread dedicated to it. I generally agree but it’s a slow news day so whatever. Let them have fun. The pattern change is on target. But there’s not much new regarding that and we’re not within range of a discreet threat yet so at least they aren’t distracting us from anything. If they were I’d be calling for cleanup in aisle 6 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 this pattern change is moving forward in time and becoming more favorable. exactly what we want to see 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Really good news. Wishing for the best in the new year for Mid Atlantic. Hopefully lots of great storms and snows. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Im actually really tired of talking pattern change. We do need a threat asap to show up. Those maps are pretty but we need some roi like right now 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 I generally agree but it’s a slow news day so whatever. Let them have fun. The pattern change is on target. But there’s not much new regarding that and we’re not within range of a discreet threat yet so at least they aren’t distracting us from anything. If they were I’d be calling for cleanup in aisle 6 also. It’s actually not a slow news day. Those snowfall maps are a byproduct of a good 500mb map so I appreciate cape and his skillful use of 500mb but that’s why we can post those snowfall maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: Im actually really tired of talking pattern change. We do need a threat asap to show up. Those maps are pretty but we need some roi like right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: It’s actually not a slow news day. Those snowfall maps are a byproduct of a good 500mb map so I appreciate cape and his skillful use of 500mb but that’s why we can post those snowfall maps Those snow maps have looked that way for about a week now. But cape is right the h5 look is what matters. The snow is a product of the long wave pattern not the other way around. But I don’t mind the snow maps as much. Who cares it’s fun so long as we tone it down once there is real threats to focus on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Im actually really tired of talking pattern change. We do need a threat asap to show up. Those maps are pretty but we need some roi like right now I am too. Next week looks super messy, but there’s still some paths to some frozen with that. But beyond that is when our options open up dramatically. I think by this weekend we’ll at least have an idea of a time window for a discreet threat. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Looking more EPS like. GEFS beginning to sniff the good stuff. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Ji, you have lowered your standards!!!! Ji is simping these days. His rizz game ain't what it once was. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 6 hours ago, Terpeast said: You’ll be fine. You’ll be back for the big one if its gonna happen Yeah and besides, if it's a good winter, AND one where we get a big one, as long as you don't travel from Jan 10th-Feb 20th, ya won't miss it most of the time (looking at the historical records, it's amazing how many fell in that date range, but there were a couple somewhat recent exceptions in 1993, 1996 & 2009 of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I am too. Next week looks super messy, but there’s still some paths to some frozen with that. But beyond that is when our options open up dramatically. I think by this weekend we’ll at least have an idea of a time window for a discreet threat. i'm assuming the usage of the word "discreet" here is a board joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 CmcSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ji said: Cmc Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk We need a few more frames to get our blue pixel fix. ETA—GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 We need a few more frames to get our blue pixel fix. ETA—GFS Pics or it didn’t happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Fringed out my way on the super long gfs! Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 00z CMC looks like some frozen on the 30th as the run ends for parts of the region. 00z GFS has a snowstorm for i95 corridor just after the new year (January 2-3) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 32 minutes ago, jayyy said: Pics or it didn’t happen 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts