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Shaulov4

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Everything posted by Shaulov4

  1. Shaulov4
    He did pretty well in 09/10 but since then
  2. Shaulov4
    I better prepare my deep winter jackets. Been wearing a sweater for the past 2 years....
  3. Shaulov4
    Yes 500mb is where the shortwaves are at.
  4. Shaulov4
  5. Shaulov4
    So you mean there are cutters every 5 days and the east coast is torched with 60+ degrees throughout? Cold is coming, opportunities are there. Picture will be clearer with the opportunities mid week next week.
  6. Shaulov4
    Yes, the 3-6th Time Frame really does seem like our first real potential. It almost like everything settles and is ready to go.
  7. Shaulov4
  8. Shaulov4
    Better to have than to not have at all.
  9. Shaulov4
    One thing that is a pretty good bet is that the STJ will be super active. I believe most can agree on that.
  10. Shaulov4
    Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month
  11. Shaulov4
    I wouldn't discount the progression of how the pattern would get us there. As for the temps there is certainly a battle between that eastern trough and pacific forcing, while Central US will definitely see warmer than normal temps, I wouldn't be surprised to see the east stay pretty average. Btw I believe it was RD who once said "watch what comes after warm up".
  12. Shaulov4
  13. Shaulov4
    What is really shocking to me is how bad the Chargers are this year.
  14. Shaulov4
  15. Shaulov4
    Oh wow very cool thank you very much. I think I focus on 500mb too much, I gotta learn to be more diverse.
  16. Shaulov4
    Quick question, while understanding that this will change about a billion times, what is the main cause of this “system” heading due south east? Is it the northwest energy squashing the ridge forcing heights to lower?
  17. Shaulov4
    Fair enough, I shake your hand we move on
  18. Shaulov4
    1) I have never “professed” to being an expert at anything other than perhaps at eating Chinese food. 2) The question was sincere and although it may have came across as sardonic i assure , it wasn’t. 3) Thank You making me look up the word Neophyte, I will gladly add that to my much limited vocabulary. 4) Posting a total Precipitation map of a 15 Day Euro “Control” run is just as analytical as a child picking its boogies. 5) I have no Ego, it’s been gone since I was a teen. I don’t get heated especially over the weather. I am sorry that I have offended you and surely that wasn’t my motive but rather than throwing out cool words, I would suggest you ask whether I was being sincere prior to insulting me. Thank You
  19. Shaulov4
    Is this a serious post?
  20. Shaulov4
    You initially have a rainmaker (maybe some snow for the deep interior( around the 4th and a piece gets left out south. Development emerges in the gulf and leads straight to the boundary that the first storm lays out. An initially stronger system can lead to a cold secondary storm and the fresh cold injection gets pulled in. If not, we can still get a dynamic cooling event depending on low placement and strength. I do believe it will be a two storm setup as the first one ushers in a colder and perhaps snowier pattern. Don’t throw rocks if I’m wrong however.
  21. Shaulov4
    I suppose he was just a little late to the party.(although the party hasn’t started yet) Better to recognize late than to never recognize at all.
  22. Shaulov4
    It’s a Good thing that there are other models to look at then
  23. Shaulov4
    Pattern Progressions can be pretty tedious at times but they can also be exciting as each player changes course from day to day until there is some sort of consolidation. That progression can be observed on model runs as well, also known as flip flopping to many. The thing about an active STJ is that it is often the things that are not obvious that can make a big difference. For example if you have a stalled frontal boundary, creating what many would say is stale cold air, all you would need is a moisture enriched atmosphere that can ride that stale boundary providing those pretty satisfying overrunning events. Based on recent observations and model data, I am starting to believe that December, for the most part will be normal to slightly below normal in temps here in the Mid-Atlantic. I am quite skeptical about the "warm up" (More like warm push) we are due to have and as of right now it seems to be getting more transient in my opinion. I certainly don't think we are done seeing changes in the Mid-Range in terms of storm development. Overall, I think we are in a pretty good spot and I would certainly keep an eye out for any system here on out (December 3-6th is my main interest) . Our winter pattern is not yet here but we are already in a better spot than we were all last year. As a matter of fact many have seen their first flakes today.
  24. Shaulov4
    Haha thank you, I have been lurking in the background for sometime and have been standing in the shadow of PSU and the crew for a long time, going way back to the Accuweather days. Moderated at another forum that shall not be named until it got too crazy, so just happy to be part of a community again. Oh and hello to a good friend @winter_warlocknice to see you .
  25. Shaulov4
    I wouldn't say uninspiring but rather predictable which is a good thing if you want snow later in the month. Many on here have consistently mentioned that December was a building block month for the upcoming winter pattern. So you definitely want to see some "boring" tendencies heading into early December as that most likely means that everything is going according to "plan". That is not to say that this upcoming cold shot isn't impressive or that there won't be chance of some wintery activity but for the most part I don't think anyone would be surprised if we got zilch for the next 2-3 weeks. In fact I find it rather exciting and interesting to see if we can bank in some "bonuses" especially heading into the second week of December. The STJ is just starting to wake and that will most certainly throw some curveballs in some model forecasts. Some many pieces of energy floating around, don't be surprised to see lows pop up out of nowhere. Another exciting thing to see is the consistency that the models have going into the time frame from Dec 21st to New Years. Now obviously consistency doesn't mean much in the modeling world, however when it aligns with the pros it definitely deserves attention. I think for the next 3 weeks we will see a little bit of everything, some cold shots, some warm pushes and everything in between. This is why we love the weather, because at the end of the day we get what we get and all we can do is appreciate its endless lessons. Btw I wouldn't count the 28th-29th system out just yet.. a little more interaction and things could get rather interesting....
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