Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Rgem brought the heavy swath well west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, nycsnow said: Costal flooding and large breaking waves gonna cause an issue as well. Reminding me of that storm the day before Xmas eve last year but with wind Thankfully we’re not at new moon, otherwise we’d have big problems. Even without that we’re probably in for major beach erosion. Edit-NWS calling for moderate to major flooding at Point Lookout, Freeport and Lindenhurst. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Almost-Vince rapidly developing in eastern Gulf. Note squall line feature in western Cuba, center is probably around 1005 mbs near 25N 85W. Will track across n FL and se GA, up coast just a bit inland at times, over DCA-BAL region late Sunday, n NJ by monday. http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg Link will probably update to current time as you encounter it, so comments above apply to 21z imagery. Currently over 78-80 F SST region, so legit tropical storm candidate, "almost" Vince could be Vince (bookend un-named tropical storms for 2023? -- one in January). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Gfs impressive once again with winds 50-70mph nyc east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 OKX latest qpf forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: When did hudson bay move out of canada? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Twin-centered low, would expect s component to cut off strong winds in NYC and w LI after first part of event. Inland NJ will see prolonged period of less windy or even calm conditions due to two-part train of lows (if verified). Rain could be under-done, 1909 one-day record is definitely on table at moment, timing is good for almost all rain to be on one calendar day (mon Dec 18). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Impressive radar https://x.com/reedtimmeraccu/status/1736184391288701023?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I also hate to be a IMBY but what is the rainfall we are looking at in western and southwestern Morris County, NJ? Thanks for any insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I will guess 2.5 to 3.0 in, risk of 3.5 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 hrs on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I just flew through the storm into Orlando. In terms of big storms, really not too bad. Some light turbulence. No moderate. A constant, steady, wind swept rain in Orlando currently. But nothing down here is flooded in terms of roads or airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I just flew through the storm into Orlando. In terms of big storms, really not too bad. Some light turbulence. No moderate. A constant, steady, wind swept rain in Orlando currently. But nothing down here is flooded in terms of roads or airports. Well it’s a good thing the storm isn’t forecasted to strengthen or anything! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 HRR has gust 50-60mph cnj east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: 4-6 verbatim between the two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 nam dumps over 5” might need to get the rowboat out and hopefully the winds blows me to safety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: nam dumps over 5” might need to get the rowboat out and hopefully the winds blows me to safety. Tons of moisture coming in with this one-plenty from the Gulf and enhanced from the Nino Pacific. I do think some will get slammed: 3-5” if not more for someone. The heaviest rain should be near the low track, strong winds east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Gfs brings 55mph wind gust pretty far west into Jersey, with 60-70 NYC east Nam has 80mph gust nyc east lol overdone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Already breezy conditions here in Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 hours ago, kdennis78 said: I also hate to be a IMBY but what is the rainfall we are looking at in western and southwestern Morris County, NJ? Thanks for any insight Howdy neighbor. I am expecting 2.5-3”; should be fun…. The winds could be problematic with all the dead ash trees in our area. I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 Good Sunday morning everyone, It is Dec 17. This thread will also serve as observations for all the nasty weather ahead. My expectations below...probably no different than yours. Follow all NWS warnings-advisories-statements. Pockets of 5" across interior NJ/e NYS/w CT...least rain probably e LI. That will probably cause quite a few small streams to rise into minor flood Monday. Rain quits Monday afternoon. Coastal tidal flooding will be a problem at high tide Monday morning-midday. Squall gusts 50+ MPH for LI/CT/maybe coastal NJ to near Boston Monday morning along with many power outages out there-be prepared for no power from near Atlantic City to near New York City and near Hartford out to the eastern tip of Long Island and Cape Cod. In some cases---power may be out for more than a day... that is still an unknown as power outage prediction is not always accurate-too many variables involved. High wind warnings are already in effect for coastal southern New England. Tuesday morning I84 corridor northward: It turns much cooler with a 3-9 hour period of snow or mixed rain snow in the morning-early afternoon. Untreated pavements above 1000 feet should become slippery by sunrise Tuesday for only Poconos/ Sussex County NJ and Orange County NY. Valleys little or no pavement accumulation otherwise am expecting 1/2" to at most 3" of wet snow much of the I84 unpaved hilly terrain (grass). It is possible most of the high terrain accumulation in CT/MA occurs late Tuesday afternoon-evening. Many NJ/CT/LI coastal locations should see a short period of mixed snow rain but expect it will be too warm for pavement accums. Am expecting delays and cancellations, especially near the coasts Monday morning. Follow all NWS warnings and statements. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Latest GFS forecast soundings for the Jersey Shore and LI beaches have sustained winds during the peak of the storm around 40 mph. Frequent gusts in the 50-60 mph range. Stronger convection could mix down the 950 mb winds in peak gusts near 68 mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Latest GFS forecast soundings for the Jersey Shore and LI beaches have sustained winds during the peak of the storm around 40 mph. Frequent gusts in the 50-60 mph range. Stronger convection could mix down the 950 mb winds in peak gusts near 68 mph. How bout nyc itself ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Based on buoy observations from down south, this storm means business for the coast. Huge fetch area, will build seas over 20’ and periods high enough to cause wash overs and severe beach erosion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Based on buoy observations from down south, this storm means business for the coast. Huge fetch area, will build seas over 20’ and periods high enough to cause wash overs and severe beach erosion. There was some significant surge in Florida as well overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 A cruise ship had a 68 mph gust last night off the east coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 That is a beast on radar/vapor. I wouldn't be surprised if this was the rare occasion where impacts are worse than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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