Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.

[binbisso]

Cmc, ukie, and icon all have the trailing n/s vort. Ukie looks the best ATM 

[binbisso]

Ukie is also plenty cold with Temps in the upper 20's for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning 

[nycsnow]

Pretty impressive winds on GFS

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, binbisso said:

Cmc, ukie, and icon all have the trailing n/s vort. Ukie looks the best ATM 

Let the praying start now. 

[forkyfork]

lol

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

lol

97/98 ish. Not calling that disaster for this year just reminiscing.

[MJO812]

H5 improved for the follow up wave on the gfs

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

H5 improved for the follow up wave on the gfs

The trough is positively tilted as all hell. God speed

[psv88]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

lol

Would be a disaster for the ski resorts 

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Would be a disaster for the ski resorts 

Expected these days, really awful pattern next few weeks

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Tezeta said:

Wow a 972 nor’easter. Wish I had something that powerful to track. Good luck everyone!

No high pressure to the north, general area of lower pressure.  Winds look meh

[WestBabylonWeather]

Yikes. That’s a decent hit. I use Petro for oil heat, they offer free chimney inspections to customers, but any repair work is 100% on the homeowner 

Yup. Oil I’m covered my friend owns an oil
Company in bellmore so I never had a contract

The issue was the chimney crown cracked and the mortar was falling apart so in Heavy rain water leaked into the chimney into the basement

Once they redid the crown and the mortar the leaked stopped


.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

No high pressure to the north, general area of lower pressure.  Winds look meh

A strong south'easter that pumps us into the 60s would mix some strong winds down. 

[jm1220]

Might be bogus but 0z GFS does get some good SE wind for the NJ shore and LI, would likely be some 50-60mph gusts. Temps spiking ahead of the low would help mix them down, and as we all see the low is quite strong. The strong SE flow would also help an upslope component to enhance the rain for inland areas. But hopefully the fast movement and vertical stacking keep this a more 1-2" rain event vs firehose deluge like Sunday.

Unless the northern stream low can pinch off south of us after the main low passes I wouldn't expect more than snow showers, but it would add a wintry appeal at least.

[eduggs]

11 hours ago, binbisso said:

Cmc, ukie, and icon all have the trailing n/s vort. Ukie looks the best ATM 

I know it doesn't matter since it's 6 days out and it will change every run, but the UKIE was still snowing at the end of its 12z run. 

[Roger Smith]

Storm is about as close to being a tropical storm as a Dec east coast storm can be, I even think there is a chance of it being named (as a STS), but whether or not that happens, potential for one-day DEC rainfall record (3.09" at NYC) to be challenged. (2-d totals around 3.5" if arrival is overnight) ... Very windy on Long Island and southern New England, not so sure it will be windy inland NJ, possibly just along coast briefly. It's rather like blizzard of '93 without cold air available (for track and intensity). 

Second event could be a figment of some models' imagination. It is way OTS on other guidance. A very good pattern is slowly developing by Dec 26, two possible winter storms but phasing with late-arriving cold air from Quebec rather than deep arctic air from central Canada, could be a negative for coast, would put money on heavy snowfalls in interior regions and perhaps mixing near coast with first of two (26-27), second one (29-30) looks more promising generally. 

[wdrag]

Back to this two event system:  Modeling seen through 06z/15.

Looks like a narrow stripe of 4.5", 24 hour rainfall,  along just west of the eventual track of the near STS (wherever that track ends up) mentioned in the post above..with amounts maybe near 1" in 50 MPH squalls eastern LI to 1.5-3" remainder of the NYC subforum.  Ensembles (GEFS/NAEFS) seem to have as many streams into minor flood as last Sunday-Monday and a couple moderate (actual rain will determine).  Monday morning Impact could be larger due than last week, since it dumps in a shorter time frame,  IFFFF the rainfall mentioned above occurs  Track looks fairly solid within 60 miles either side of NJ/Hud Valley. For now max rainfall axis somewhere near I95 VA-NJ, to adjust in future modeling. TT briefly near 50 Monday morning so isolated thunder possible. This is a negative tilt shortwave rolling newd from GMEX on this one.   Note sure of records for Monday but 60s NYC?

Regarding the second event:  I am pretty sure I84 corridor will see some wet snow Tuesday morning-midday, and a rain-wet snow mix to the coast (no stick on coastal pavement). It's far into the future but when we toss all this Monday morning RH/warmth back into the Appalachians and then sharpen the 5h trough quite noticeably into PA by Tuesday morning, I have to think there will be a band of FGEN with deep unstable moist soundings to 600 MB crossing the region Tuesday, offering a 3-9 hour period of generated precip. Amounts probably under 1/3rd inch. Not impossible to see spotty 2-5" snow fall Poconos/Catskills/Adirondacks/Berks/Litchfield Hills with pavement treatments needed above 1000 feet. Even nw NJ hills to MA Worcester Hills could see a slight grass accumulation.  Just too early to be confident except I am expecting a little snow in those areas-accums debatable and best to think less than 1" for now.  Just too much leftover moisture in my opinion to not are wring it out as it turns colder.  If the 5H trough doesn't sharpen (neutral 5H tilt as cyclically modeled) by the EPS and GEFS, then this second event won't happen. 

So for now, one event at a time.  This first one I think will result in flood hazards (inland) and coastal flood (partly because of e-se inflow ahead of the trough, and partly because of lowered pressure (990 MB)... both probably minor but not impossible for spotty moderate.  Timing and inflow determined. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Storm is about as close to being a tropical storm as a Dec east coast storm can be, I even think there is a chance of it being named (as a STS), but whether or not that happens, potential for one-day DEC rainfall record (3.09" at NYC) to be challenged. (2-d totals around 3.5" if arrival is overnight) ... Very windy on Long Island and southern New England, not so sure it will be windy inland NJ, possibly just along coast briefly. It's rather like blizzard of '93 without cold air available (for track and intensity). 

Second event could be a figment of some models' imagination. It is way OTS on other guidance. A very good pattern is slowly developing by Dec 26, two possible winter storms but phasing with late-arriving cold air from Quebec rather than deep arctic air from central Canada, could be a negative for coast, would put money on heavy snowfalls in interior regions and perhaps mixing near coast with first of two (26-27), second one (29-30) looks more promising generally. 

Looks like the weeklies from a few days might be right with a developing winter pattern by the end of this month .

[Yanksfan]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the weeklies from a few days might be right with a developing winter pattern by the end of this month .

We can only hope. I’m getting ticked off with all these rainstorms.

[Brian5671]

6z GFS is very wet just inland with up to 5 inches of rain-would think the coast would see some good winds with this inland track

[wdrag]

There will be substantial impacts in parts of our area. Wet ground...gusts 40-50 trees slop over.  Power outages again,  this time I think more in NJ/CT/MA than back ion NYS/ne PA.  Flooding rainfall for parts of the area. So unless the track slides west through PA, there will be plenty to observe Sunday-Monday.  

Not sure if anyone saw the EC 90 hours 525 5H low in Ohio. Swift changes ahead for Tuesday morning.  In my mind,no doubt  an active 3 days (Sun night-Tuesday). 

[wdrag]

Record for CP on Monday the 18th. 63-1984.   Did not check any others but think near record warmth possible midday before chilling in the evening, 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

There will be substantial impacts in parts of our area. Wet ground...gusts 40-50 trees slop over.  Power outages again,  this time I think more in NJ/CT/MA than back ion NYS/ne PA.  Flooding rainfall for parts of the area. So unless the track slides west through PA, there will be plenty to observe Sunday-Monday.  

Not sure if anyone saw the EC 90 hours 525 5H low in Ohio. Swift changes ahead for Tuesday morning.  In my mind,no doubt  an active 3 days (Sun night-Tuesday). 

How about the prospect of flight delays at the NY area airports on Monday?  

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

6z GFS is very wet just inland with up to 5 inches of rain-would think the coast would see some good winds with this inland track

Canadians and ukie are further east. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

6z GFS is very wet just inland with up to 5 inches of rain-would think the coast would see some good winds with this inland track

I would think just inland and where elevations get hilly would be favored for heavy rain in this event. Models are hitting the upslope aspects of a strong SE flow hard-notice the rain maxes in the Berkshires, E Catskills, Poconos etc. 

[Stormlover74]

Nam favors just inland 

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam favors just inland 

SE wind really brings the moisture. Could be flooding issues where SE upslope wrings it out-notice again SE Catskills, Poconos. 

[Brian5671]

RGEM more on the coast 

[nycsnow]

Winds def seem to me more of a threat for more people this weekend compared to this past Sundays storm 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the GFS doesn’t have much in the way of an inversion in the soundings so has gusts near 70 mph at the beaches.

 

Will be bad news if verifies.  Saturated ground and SE winds of that intensity = not good.  Tree and power line damage likely.  Again, if it verifies.  Models have been overzealous with wind forecasts with several events in the recent past.