December 2023

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

the interior SE and mid atlantic have better chances of hooking up with big snows in January; than SNE,  I think. 

What kinda sucks about this too is that a) not our cold source regions b) this snow melts within day or two of falling, even in Jan. It doesn't reinforce cold. Transient.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

the interior SE and mid atlantic have better chances of hooking up with big snows in January; than SNE,  I think. 

I could see that and its a risk....this is why I made a post last night to the effect of we will need to catch a break in January to end up with above average snowfall regionally.

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, kdxken said:

We tried to tell you. You just wouldn't listen...

You missed my point…but that’s ok. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like there are two inflection points for this winter.....the first one represented by whether or not we could pull a good event or two in December to really be able to pull a rabbit from the hat and get an epic season.....that was possible, but looks to be going by the wayside.

The second more important inflection point is to get a good event or two in early January before things go sideways for again while the tropospheric energy fluxes into the stratosphere. I think this will be necessary for an above average snowfall season across much of SNE because getting above climo will be a tall task if we wait until the SSW begins to pay dividends late month and into February.

This is mainly for SNE, as NNE as already done okay and the mid Atlantic only needs one major event to do well.

 

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see that and its a risk....this is why I made a post last night to the effect of we will need to catch a break in January to end up with above average snowfall regionally.

 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see that and its a risk....this is why I made a post last night to the effect of we will need to catch a break in January to end up with above average snowfall regionally.

That's part of it, but the big piece I'm looking at is if the heavy precip stays out of canada - no man pack develops to our north/west, which portends risk of an earlier end to winter; i.e. take down March/April expectations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

That's part of it, but the big piece I'm looking at is if the high precip stays out of canada - no man pack develops to our north/west, which portends risk of an earlier end to winter; i.e. take down March/April expectations.

I am already out on March, anyway...I expect an early spring....we could sneak in something the first week, but other than that....

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

That's part of it, but the big piece I'm looking at is if the high precip stays out of canada - no man pack develops to our north/west, which portends risk of an earlier end to winter; i.e. take down March/April expectations.

As you know, Canada has been en fuego...

[jbenedet]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am already out on March, anyway...I expect an early spring.

Man if that's the case how are you expecting above average snowfall for the season. TOUGH odds.

Jan and February have the toughest comps. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Man if that's the case how are you expecting above average snowfall for the season. TOUGH odds.

Jan and February have the toughest comps. 

He's going pretty heavy on the snow for Jan/Feb....esp Feb which makes sense in an El Nino.

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pattern is improving but from such a terrible point.

I'm comfortable going ratter for SNE before first day of winter. Some observations on why:

1) Generally: Northern stream is traversing our region when big storms are not nearby. Said differently, snow potential is highest for small disturbances, rain potential is highest for strong disturbances. N to slightly BN happening mostly with dry conditions. AN conditions happening mostly with wet conditions.

2) Generally: The Pacific jet is producing our big storms; and even with -NAO in place, and blocking, sig El Nino conditions are sufficient to overwhelm confluence and the BL with p-type/accumulation issues. Blocking won't flee it will, "strangely" erode.

3) Snow-cover near all time lows by Jan 1; this includes our key cold source regions in Southern Canada. 

[512high]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's going pretty heavy on the snow for Jan/Feb....esp Feb which makes sense in an El Nino.

Based on our "area" isn't Feb. usually heaviest snows going into Mid. March if we go back ....based on CON records etc

[NorEastermass128]

For me a rat is < 25”. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Based on our "area" isn't Feb. usually heaviest snows going into Mid. March if we go back ....based on CON records etc

For ORH, general climo is the snowiest 1 month period is January 28th to February 28th. For CON, it looks like it's pretty similar, maybe January 30th to March 2nd.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Man if that's the case how are you expecting above average snowfall for the season. TOUGH odds.

Jan and February have the toughest comps. 

Well, I am hardly above climo...

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup....like @bluewaveputs it..."competing forces". But I will say the STJ is pretty iron clad el Nino.

Huge. Yup.   I remember pointing that out to one another last month in your winter outlook thread.  That said, it hasn't really been the dominant player - that I've seen perhaps yet ( hmm).   Although, this last Miller-A was certainly connected to that. 

It's been in play either way.  Matter of amounts. Maybe RONI has something to do with that - it's not a tough intuitive leap there.

RONI - reminds me of how Heather Archembaultian statistical science can really be applied everywhere. Her stuff shows how rising PNA proceeds eastern N/A higher scaled precipitation events in simple sense. 

Firstly, the reason that statistic bears out is because it's all about larger mass fields moving from a quiescent state, forcibly into one where it changes.  That destabilizes the system --> storm results.   But this logic/observation can be applied too everything in nature, really.  It's just that simple.  Her thesis there really could have been, "Like everywhere in nature, changing the state of the system triggers a restoring force"

I've used this "math" in the past to describe this:   when A = B, nothing happens;  when A ≠ B  shit happens.   That's it.  It's the H.A. of the cosmos, ha.  True though. Movement in any sense, scale or dimension in reality ( perhaps reality its self) only happens because A ≠ B and A is relentlessly trying to equal B.  If you want to get into physical terms the universe is attempting to reach a state of entropy and so on...

Anyway, ...RONI offsets are about lowering how much A ≠ B   .  Which is why I wonder how much of the warm Dec is purely ENSO and not just related to the inferno ( apparently) going on, air and sea, at global scales.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/11/2023 at 11:51 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Great novel Ray Ray good luck

 

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Man if that's the case how are you expecting above average snowfall for the season. TOUGH odds.

Jan and February have the toughest comps. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I am hardly above climo...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

LOL Its a pretty reasonable take IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Huge. Yup.   I remember pointing that out to one another last month in your winter outlook thread.  That said, it hasn't really been the dominant player - that I've seen perhaps yet ( hmm).   Although, this last Miller-A was certainly connected to that. 

It's been in play either way.  Matter of amounts. Maybe RONI has something to do with that - it's not a tough intuitive leap there.

RONI - reminds me of how Heather Archembaultian statistical science can really be applied everywhere. Here stuff shows how rising PNA proceeds eastern N/A higher scaled precipitation events in simple sense. 

Firstly, the reason that statistic bears out is because it's all about larger mass fields moving from a quiescent state, forcibly into one where it changes.  That destabilizes the system --> storm results.   But this logic/observation can be applied too everything in nature, really.  It's just that simple.  Here thesis there really could have been, "Like everywhere in nature, changing the state of the system triggers a restoring force"

I've used this "math" in the past to describe this:   when A = B, nothing happens;  when A ≠ B  shit happens.   That's it.  It's the H.A. of the cosmos, ha.  True though. Movement in any sense, scale or dimension in reality ( perhaps reality its self) only happens because A ≠ B and A is relentlessly trying to equal B.  If you want to get into physical terms the universe is attempting to reach a state of entropy and so on...

Anyway, ...RONI offsets are about lowering how much A ≠ B   .  Which is why I wonder how much of the warm Dec is purely ENSO and not just related to the inferno ( apparently) going on, air and sea, at global scales.

ABSOLUTELY.

This is what I spent in inordinately large amount of time trying to communicate.

[roardog]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The forcing from el Nino is so far west that it actually bolstered the warm December idea.

Yeah. It seems the East based Ninos with the more eastern forcing actually have colder Decembers. 1997 had some cold around during December. Although much weaker, 1976 of course was a very cold December that turned “warm” in February. That’s opposite of what you see a lot of times with the more western forcing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. It seems the East based Ninos with the more eastern forcing actually have colder Decembers. 1997 had some cold around during December. Although much weaker, 1976 of course was a very cold December that turned “warm” in February. That’s opposite of what you see a lot of times with the more western forcing. 

Same with la Nina...some of the Modoki la Nina events begin colder than east-based.

1976 was very weak, which leads to more variability because the season is more dictated by extra tropical forces.

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL Its a pretty reasonable take IMO.

All in good fun. It is definitely reasonable. I was never on the AN snow side of things. I think we end up near to slightly below normal snow with winter beginning in earnest mid-January. Anything near normal here is a tremendous victory given the horror show of the last half decade (minus one year). 

[dryslot]

When we finally hit the good period, Watch it be cold and dry.

[George001]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I am hardly above climo...

Reading your blog, those of us who forecasted mild below normal snow winters actually weren’t too different from some of your analogs, and we were actually aligned for December. I agree with you on January being an inflection point, that is when winter will show its hand. Seasonably cold (+1 AN or below) with AN precip for Jan would get it done. +3 AN and above average precip? That would be bad news for the coastal plain in SNE. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

When we finally hit the good period, Watch it be cold and dry.

I’ll always look forward to your Euro PBP on a big system inside 5 days

[HoarfrostHubb]

Apparently the last White Christmas in Boston was 2009?   They average one 19% of the time but I was suprised by that.

I guess the source was using 1" OTG by 7AM

A meaningless fact but a little interesting

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Apparently the last White Christmas in Boston was 2009?   They average one 19% of the time but I was suprised by that.

I guess the source was using 1" OTG by 7AM

A meaningless fact but a little interesting

 

14 years including this year …cmon . 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Reading your blog, those of us who forecasted mild below normal snow winters actually weren’t too different from some of your analogs, and we were actually aligned for December. I agree with you on January being an inflection point, that is when winter will show its hand. Seasonably cold (+1 AN or below) with AN precip for Jan would get it done. +3 AN and above average precip? That would be bad news for the coastal plain in SNE. 

Yep...this is a point I have mentioned to @snowman19...we spend several months fighting tooth and nail over what ultimately amounts to 10" of snowfall and 1/10 of a degree Celsius in a strip of water in the tropical Pacific.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep...this is a point I have mentioned to @snowman19...we spend several months fighting tooth and nail over what ultimately amounts to 10" of snowfall and 1/10 of a degree Celsius in a strip of water in the tropical Pacific.

A tradition like no other. We're all sick and it's glorious.

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Apparently the last White Christmas in Boston was 2009?   They average one 19% of the time but I was suprised by that.

I guess the source was using 1" OTG by 7AM

A meaningless fact but a little interesting

 

That is correct. 2017 missed out because there wasn't an inch of snow on the ground as of 7AM. 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

14 years including this year …cmon . 

 

I always count 2017 because 20 min later there was an inch. We had one south of BOS in 2010, but Logan didn't get much from the snow event near the 21st I believe.