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Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow before rebounding strongly on Tuesday. That patter will likely repeat itself for Wednesday and Thursday.

Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers or a period of rain, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly.

The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -9.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.291 today.

On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.543 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.714 (RMM).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  51degs.(45/57) or +1.

Reached 66 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:  54-56, wind se., variable clouds, 54 tomorrow AM.

48*(55%RH) here at 6am{was 47 earlier}.     52 at 9am.    56* at 3pm.    Reached 57* at 4pm.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old Aleutians ridge with trough out West pumping the Southeast ridge. This is why it’s so difficult to sustain any colder temperatures here.

 

E6DFEFAF-6066-47A0-BDDE-944578535BC8.thumb.png.ed158d2069f63c49f64ac39c93304f1c.png

 

Yup. Will take a week or two after the warm up to flush that pac airmass out. Then wash rinse repeat with a 2-3 day cold shot to start December 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 80 (1948)
NYC: 75  (2022)
LGA: 75  (2022)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (2012)
NYC: 27 (1879)
LGA: 30 (1951)

Historical:

 

1951 - Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decature IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County. (5th- 6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1961: Santa Ana winds in southern California downed trees, utility lines and blew 10 to 50 percent of the avocado crop from trees. Dust from the winds lowered the visibility, which led to a 16 car pileup, injuring 23 people. In addition, the winds brought the lowerest relative humidity of record to Burbank, 3 percent, and contributed to disastrous fires in the hills of the Los Angeles area.

 

1977: Several possible causes lead to the collapse of the Kelly Barnes Dam in Georgia to give way. The failure allowed a 40-acre lake to flood the Toccoa Falls College, killing 39 people and injuring 60 more.

1987 - High winds in the northeastern U.S., turning a recent warm spell into a distant memory, gusted to 63 mph at Rhode Island. Squalls resulting from the high winds produced five inches of snow at Marquette MI and seven inches at Rome NY. A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy snow to some of the higher elevations of Arizona, Colorado and Utah. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region continued to produce snow across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals along the shore of Lake Superior reached 24 inches, with three feet of snow reported in the Porcupine Mountain area of Upper Michigan. Marquette MI established a November record with 17.3 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the south central and southeastern U.S. Nine cities from Florida to Oklahoma and Texas reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. The high of 89 degrees at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport in Texas equalled their record for November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - Severe thunderstorms produced a deadly tornado near Evansville, Indiana during the early morning hours of November 6. There were 23 fatalities from the tornado, with 19 of the deaths occurring in the Eastbrook Mobile Home Park located just to the southeast of the city (Associated Press). It was Indiana's deadliest tornado since the Super Outbreak on April 3, 1974.

 

2005: The deadliest tornado to strike Indiana since April 3rd, 1974, occurred around 2 am. A single F3 tornado inflicted 24 fatalities, 238 injuries, and nearly 90 million dollars in damage with a path length of 41 miles. This storm moved in a northeasterly direction from just north of Smith Mills, Kentucky, to Gentryville, Indiana, and crossed the Ohio River three times. Most of the damage occurred as the tornado passed southeast of the city of Evansville, Indiana.

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Temperatures will rebound strongly tomorrow. That pattern will likely repeat itself in muted fashion for Wednesday and Thursday.

Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers or a period of rain, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly.

The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -14.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.418 today.

On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.310 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.543 (RMM).

 

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