psv88 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 60 here. We warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 55 currently…skeptical of the euros 65-70 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 55 currently…skeptical of the euros 65-70 GFS RGEM, CMC also warm, NAMS say no way....Satellite loop does show the cloud deck lifting slowly north so will be close for you... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Getting breaks of sun at ISP, feels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 60 here, may try for 70 if the clouds go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 55 currently…skeptical of the euros 65-70 57 at 1230… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 57 here as well-up from 50 this AM-some brightening as well but doubt we see any sun this far north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 57 here as well-up from 50 this AM-some brightening as well but doubt we see any sun this far north Euro was to far north with the warm front…wind has shifted nw now 1pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Nam nailed it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 getting out the winter coat out of the closet.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 58 Nyc and 80 in cape may 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Montauk made it into the warm sector at 65° with SW wind. Montauk N/A 65 62 90 SW6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 63 here earlier, down to 59 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Montauk made it into the warm sector at 65° with SW wind. Montauk N/A 65 62 90 SW6 Nam nailed it…it’s still very useful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam nailed it…it’s still very useful It was too cool in its forecasts from yesterday missing the 60s in Suffolk. It has a bit of a cold bias like the other models. It had the 60s limited to south of BLM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was too cool in its forecasts from yesterday missing the 60s in Suffolk. It has a bit of a cold bias like the other models. It had the 60s limited to south of BLM. Euro had close to 70’s around most of the metro which was awful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Just cracked 80 here. Last time till at least late March/April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro had close to 70 around most of the metro which was awful The Euro isn’t a meso so it can’t resolve very well how far north the actual front is going to get on stalled frontal days like this. But it’s doing much better than the NAM in the actual warm sector. The NAM only had highs in the low 70s in SNJ its forecast from yesterday. It already made it to 80° near Cape May. So the Euro had a better forecast for the actual highs in the warm sector. But the mesos excell at the actual placement of where the fronts will stall. Also notice the cool bias with the Euro missing the 80° in SNJ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 got to a HI of 57, down to 53 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Picked up more rain than I thought I would over the last couple of day. Picked up 0.48" of rain so far today. Two day total so far 1.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Two day total ~1.35. I made it all the way up to 52° today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Same here-rain every weekend has made things saturated and with vegetation going dormant it's soggier now than say a month ago... Yup. As stuff started giving up in mid September the ground got softer (if that was possible). Now it's just spongy. @wdrag Heh, the reservoirs are only that low up here because they've had the gates open for weeks. My local ponds are past bankful and the creeks rage 24/7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Only made it to 62 here, now 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 i don’t want cold noooo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Much colder air is now pouring into the region. Following the frontal passage, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November. The chill will moderate by next weekend. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +6.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.552 today. On October 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.120 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.239 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.4° (2.5° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 47 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 40F here this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 The last day of October is averaging 50degs.(46/54) or -3. Month to date is 60.9[+2.8]. October should end at 60.5[+2.6]. Reached 62 yesterday at 1pm. Today: 48-52, wind e., increasing clouds, Rain after midnight, 43 by tomorrow AM. 48*(68%RH) here at 7am. 48* at 9am. 53* at Noon. Reached 54* at 1pm. 52* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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