September 2023

[kat5hurricane]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first two weeks of the month were endless summer as they they were one of the warmest on record. Since the 15th we have been pretty close to average against the warmer 91-20 climate normals. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	1961-09-14	81.4	0
2	2023-09-14	79.0	0
3	1983-09-14	77.2	0
4	2015-09-14	76.9	0
5	1947-09-14	76.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	1961-09-14	77.8	0
2	1983-09-14	74.6	0
3	2023-09-14	74.5	0
4	2015-09-14	73.7	0
5	2016-09-14	72.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	2023-09-14	75.9	0
2	1983-09-14	74.1	0
3	2015-09-14	73.9	0
4	1980-09-14	73.1	0
5	2016-09-14	72.7	0

Yes but that was skewed heavily by Labor Day week being near record breaking warmth. The 2nd week of September and beyond was back closer to normal where it's been highs in the 70s for the most part.

We're also in a climate now where "old normal" temps feel relatively cool because it's been so hot, especially due to the humidity, in recent years.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Yes but that was skewed heavily by Labor Day week being near record breaking warmth. The 2nd week of September and beyond was back closer to normal where it's been highs in the 70s for the most part.

We're also in a climate now where "old normal" temps feel relatively cool because it's been so hot, especially due to the humidity, in recent years.

The 2nd week of the month was still pretty warm. But in our new warmer climate wasn’t as extreme as week 1.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Avg Temperature Departure
2023-09-01	79	60	-4.3
2023-09-02	83	59	-2.6
2023-09-03	92	66	5.7
2023-09-04	93	72	9.4
2023-09-05	95	78	13.7
2023-09-06	97	77	14.5
2023-09-07	96	76	13.8
2023-09-08	92	73	10.5
2023-09-09	88	73	8.9
2023-09-10	81	70	4.2
2023-09-11	85	72	7.5
2023-09-12	87	69	7.3
2023-09-13	83	71	6.7
2023-09-14	81	63	2.0
2023-09-15	74	58	-3.6
2023-09-16	79	60	0.2
2023-09-17	79	56	-1.4
2023-09-18	70	62	-2.5
2023-09-19	77	59	-0.1
2023-09-20	78	58	0.3

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 50 off a low of 50.  Last mainly clear and dry day for a bit.  Pattern is kind of stuck up into the east the Atlantic ridge is anchored east of Bermuda acting to slow any front and forcing cut off / ULL under the ridge. Whats it mean - a likely very wet period the next week to 10 days before overall warmer period sets into early October.  Wouldnt shock me to see 5 - 10 inches of rain 9/23 - 10/1 in spots.  Check those gutters, drains, sump pumps and streets.

 

Here's the initiation of the ST system off the old frontal boundary east of Georgia

 

 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands. 

[TheClimateChanger]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 2nd week of the month was still pretty warm. But in our new warmer climate wasn’t as extreme as week 1.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Avg Temperature Departure
2023-09-01	79	60	-4.3
2023-09-02	83	59	-2.6
2023-09-03	92	66	5.7
2023-09-04	93	72	9.4
2023-09-05	95	78	13.7
2023-09-06	97	77	14.5
2023-09-07	96	76	13.8
2023-09-08	92	73	10.5
2023-09-09	88	73	8.9
2023-09-10	81	70	4.2
2023-09-11	85	72	7.5
2023-09-12	87	69	7.3
2023-09-13	83	71	6.7
2023-09-14	81	63	2.0
2023-09-15	74	58	-3.6
2023-09-16	79	60	0.2
2023-09-17	79	56	-1.4
2023-09-18	70	62	-2.5
2023-09-19	77	59	-0.1
2023-09-20	78	58	0.3

With two full days of astronomical summer left, Newark is sitting in 10th place for astronomical summer. One caveat, realize the dates can vary by about a day in either direction, but this analysis uses the period June 21 to date for ease of comparison. Prior to 2005, only two warmer astronomical summers are noted (1993 & 1983). While it's in 10th place out of 124 years of data, it is only in third place out of the past three years and seventh place of the past 14 years. 

So very warm historically - as I noted, it would have been 3rd warmest prior to 2005 - but only about on par for the past decade and a half. And possibly with it being only the 3rd warmest since 2021, it may be a cool astronomical summer in the current climate.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1940)
NYC: 95 (1895) - very hot late septemeber heatwave peaks tomorrow
LGA: 89 (1940)



Lows:

EWR: 39 (1946) - first sub 40 record low since May 30
NYC: 40 (1871)
LG: 43 (1956)

Historical:

 

1894 - A heavy chicken house, sixteen by sixteen feet in area, was picked up by a tornado and wedged between two trees. The hens were found the next day sitting on their eggs in the chicken house, with no windows broken, as though nothing had happened. (The Weather Channel)

 

1894: A late season severe weather outbreak occurred across northwest Iowa, south central Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin during the late evening hours. Several communities were impacted by this outbreak with an estimated 55 to 65 deaths, and in additional 300 injuries. The strongest tornado was an estimated F5, which tore through the counties of Kossuth, Hancock, Winnebago in Iowa, and Faribault in Minnesota.

 

1924: A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured.

1938 - A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island NY. The ""Long Island Express"" produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954 - The temperature at Deeth, NV, soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 87 degrees, a record daily warm-up for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Tropical Storm Emily, which formed in the Carribean the previous afternoon, caused considerable damage to the banana industry of Saint Vincent in the Windward Islands. Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida and the western U.S. Redding CA and Red Bluff CA, with record highs of 108 degrees, tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds and locally heavy rain in the southwestern U.S. One thunderstorm in west Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Dell City completely destroying an airport hangar. A Cessna 150 aircraft housed within the hangar was flipped over and snapped in two. Thunderstorms produced large hail in east central Utah, while snow blanketed some of the higher elevations of the state. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high was 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 109 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

1938 LI Express Hurricane : https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With two full days of astronomical summer left, Newark is sitting in 10th place for astronomical summer. One caveat, realize the dates can vary by about a day in either direction, but this analysis uses the period June 21 to date for ease of comparison. Prior to 2005, only two warmer astronomical summers are noted (1993 & 1983). While it's in 10th place out of 124 years of data, it is only in third place out of the past three years and seventh place of the past 14 years. 

So very warm historically - as I noted, it would have been 3rd warmest prior to 2005 - but only about on par for the past decade and a half. And possibly with it being only the 3rd warmest since 2021, it may be a cool astronomical summer in the current climate.

It’s the first time since 1983 with the warmest annual temperature occurring in September without tying with an earlier month.

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
2023	93	90	91	96	91	97	M	97
2022	88	98	96	102	101	93	76	102
2021	89	96	103	97	99	91	84	103
2020	69	86	93	96	94	89	79	96
2019	80	90	93	99	94	93	96	99
2018	84	94	96	98	96	98	82	98
2017	87	94	99	98	93	92	86	99
2016	83	96	91	99	98	94	87	99
2015	82	91	93	98	97	98	81	98
2014	83	88	92	96	93	95	79	96
2013	85	94	96	101	91	96	89	101
2012	88	92	99	104	95	92	81	104
2011	87	92	102	108	98	88	88	108
2010	92	95	98	103	98	98	79	103
2009	93	87	89	91	95	86	77	95
2008	82	87	99	98	91	92	79	99
2007	86	94	96	97	95	92	89	97
2006	83	94	95	98	101	85	82	101
2005	88	84	97	101	102	94	81	102
2004	88	92	97	91	92	87	76	97
2003	88	81	95	95	93	82	78	95
2002	97	90	96	100	100	91	86	100
2001	87	94	95	97	105	88	83	105
2000	78	94	96	93	92	88	82	96
1999	83	90	99	103	99	88	76	103
1998	74	90	94	98	93	92	79	98
1997	74	86	97	101	97	86	88	101
1996	88	99	92	91	92	92	78	99
1995	82	90	97	104	98	91	85	104
1994	92	95	102	99	95	92	78	102
1993	82	93	102	105	100	100	82	105
1992	79	98	90	97	95	90	83	98
1991	88	93	97	102	96	95	82	102
1990	94	83	92	98	93	91	88	98
1989	79	89	96	99	97	97	80	99
1988	74	94	101	101	99	86	81	101
1987	79	98	96	97	97	87	75	98
1986	80	95	94	100	90	89	85	100
1985	89	92	89	94	97	94	80	97
1984	77	89	97	95	93	88	82	97
1983	85	84	96	98	97	99	84	99

[jets]

We now have invest 99L. Ship guidance has it going up to 65 kts!

[NJwx85]

Hodographs looks interesting for Saturday afternoon, especially along the immediate coast. We should see bands rotating in off the ocean capable of water spouts coming onshore.

[MJO812]

6z Euro with more coming for the coast 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

It's skewed because Bluewave cherry picks the warmest sites in the area not to mention Islip only has a POR back to 1964 which is really weak to reference from a historical standpoint. Looking at all the official Mt Holly / Upton climate sites the 3 locations he listed are shockingly the top 3 warmest relative to average this month. Newark ASOS location is abysmal, running 2.6 - 2.7 degrees warmer than Harrison & Caldwell for Sept.

For Sept Newark is +4.5, HPN is +3.9 & Islip is +3.8 while LGA, NYC, Bridgeport, Trenton & Atlantic City are all under +3. Allentown is only +1.3 for the month.

The departures and warmth rankings at Newark are identical to the rest of the region so no cherry pick involved. I only do that in deference to the large contingent of our posters that live in NJ. So yes the absolutes are usually higher in NJ. But warmth rankings are the same around the whole region. The first two weeks of September were near the warmest on record around the entire upper MA to NE region. 
 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I know you have been a supporter of having the CMC on your side when making a forecast. I would have to say the model is the most Improved since recent upgrades. I wish we had a east coast storm statistical storm tracker which would score the models solely on forecasting the most accurate track. These Northern Hemispheric skill scores don’t tell us much about which model get our storm tracks right. But the skill on a hemispheric scale is great for temperature and teleconnection forecasts. 

Good to know the general stats and agree w you on need for more dstorm track detail!

I tend to support the GFS in summer due to convection being handled pretty well by the GFS but this is more of a winter synoptic pattern so the CMC has a good chance of being reasonably accurate as compared to GFS/EC op.  Ensembles have saved our bacon, I think, in too much trimming northern fringe.  

Other short term modeling soon comes into forecasting play by this time tomorrow. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Good to know the general stats and agree w you on need for more dstorm track detail!

I tend to support the GFS in summer due to convection being handled pretty well by the GFS but this is more of a winter synoptic pattern so the CMC has a good chance of being reasonably accurate as compared to GFS/EC op.  Ensembles have saved our bacon, I think, in too much trimming northern fringe.  

Other short term modeling soon comes into forecasting play by this time tomorrow. 

I think I can remember an AFD out of Mount Holly mentioning they had been evaluating which models were scoring best with storm tracks one winter in the last 5 years or so? 

[mob1]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Euro with more coming for the coast 

Depending on how strong invest 99L gets, there can be some decent winds along the coast as there's a pretty tight pressure gradient between the LP and strong high to the north-northeast. 

[Brian5671]

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99):
Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure 
system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and 
there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some 
tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday 
while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North 
Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this 
low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, 
coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the 
weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for 
this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on 
this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service 
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands. 

The cooler mornings over the last week feel pretty good compared to how warm the month started out. Even the UHI areas have had min departures in line with more rural areas.
 

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	58	-6.8
2023-09-16	62	-2.5
2023-09-17	62	-2.1
2023-09-18	64	0.2
2023-09-19	61	-2.4
2023-09-20	61	-2.1

 

Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	55	-2.0
2023-09-16	54	-2.6
2023-09-17	49	-7.2
2023-09-18	56	0.2
2023-09-19	54	-1.4
2023-09-20	51	-4.0
2023-09-21	50	-4.5

 

Data for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	47	-3.0
2023-09-16	45	-4.7
2023-09-17	45	-4.3
2023-09-18	51	2.0
2023-09-19	43	-5.6
2023-09-20	41	-7.3

 

Data for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	51	-1.7
2023-09-16	50	-2.3
2023-09-17	46	-6.0
2023-09-18	60	8.4
2023-09-19	51	-0.2
2023-09-20	46	-4.9

[tristateweatherFB]

No one? Anyone?   The nam doing what the nam does

[CIK62]

GFS with the least amount of rain---while the CMC {not shown} extends into NYS to Canada with the 1"+:

[Snowlover11]

18 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

No one? Anyone?   The nam doing what the nam does

NAM is a CAT 1 hitting Wilmington, NC

[NJwx85]

This should be fun

[nycwinter]

yesterday at this time was doom and gloom storm was  not going to be much   now what a difference today..

[Brian5671]

12Z NAM-still raining over most of the area at the end of the run

-

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This should be fun

PRE going on right there.  Taken verbatim could be a notable flooding event for parts of the forum.  Still a ways to go before final solution comes into better focus and this is the NAM after all.

[gravitylover]

Ugh...

On the upside, today is spectacular! Get out and do something 

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

PRE going on right there.  Taken verbatim could be a notable flooding event for parts of the forum.  Still a ways to go before final solution comes into better focus and this is the NAM after all.

The pre could have some gusty winds with it as the isobars are elongated northward and has a decent pressure gradient (yes yes, I have a wind fetish). 

[Stormlover74]

Goes from NC to LI by way of philly

[winterwx21]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like Euro went in this direction too

Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward. 

Looks like around October 1st is when above normal temps come back. 

[mob1]

Tropical storm warnings issued to just offshore the jersey coast. Local HWO outlines heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Tropical storm warnings issued to just offshore the jersey coast. Local HWO outlines heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion. 

High wind watches too for  SNJ and DE