MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I’d say that’s probably a definite at this point. 8pm advisory had 965 but it’s down to 962 currently. When does NHC start updates every hour like at what lead time? It's usually whenever circulation is in good view of the radar, like it is now. I'm sort of surprised they haven't begun those kind of updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I wonder if the NHC will issue a special advisory if Idalia reaches Cat 3 status before the 11 pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 962 is pretty low pressure for a cat 2 in the Gulf. I was told once that sometimes it take a little bit of time for the winds to catch up with a rapidly deepening storm. Not a real long time, but a couple of hours at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Starting to think that my 125kt 940mb landfall prediction from this morning might end up being too conservative. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The eye is warming fast. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Clear hot tower showing up in the NE eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 this is going beast mode just before landfall whats up with that the last few years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: this is going beast mode just before landfall whats up with that the last few years? Warm…errr…hot gulf waters. Low wind shear. Lack of dry air. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Actually Cedar Key has suffered from three major hurricane landfalls, in 1896, 1950 and 1985. Further north is where they have not been hit in the past. My guess for landfall is 20 miles east of St Marks at cat-3 intensity around 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I was told once that sometimes it take a little bit of time for the winds to catch up with a rapidly deepening storm. Not a real long time, but a couple of hours at most. I think it’s also embedded in an area of overall anonymously lower pressure. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Barring a small miracle looks like this thing will make cat 4 tonight. She’s blowing up fast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Intensification rate reminds me a bit of Ida. Ida was sluggish, only gradually intensifying until the evening then really started to ramp up. It quickly blew up to high-end category 4 status in only a few hours. That is why I am not ruling out a similar intensification rate given we still have about 12 hours remaining. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=10L&product=ir Eye see you... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Pinhole eye forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 If Idalia is not at least a 115 mph hurricane at the 11 pm advisory I will be shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Hey, 960 on the extrap? Is that right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Doc Jon said: Hey, 960 on the extrap? Is that right?! it says 960.6 on the minute-by-minute recon obs zoom-in as shown on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: Pinhole eye forming. I thought the same thing. The eye is def tightening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 That eye is looking pretty mean right now! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Latest dropsonde says 962 mb with a 25 kt wind, so 960 mb..... but only 94 kts flight level, 79 kts SFMR in the southeast quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Actually Cedar Key has suffered from three major hurricane landfalls, in 1896, 1950 and 1985. Further north is where they have not been hit in the past. My guess for landfall is 20 miles east of St Marks at cat-3 intensity around 15z. I see 1896 and 1950 but not 1985 for Cedar Key landfall: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1985.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Rate looks like 2-3mb/hr of deepening currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looking good! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Peekaboo 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 We're at the point leading up to landfall that if it isn't some solid analysis or discussion then expect that the posts will be removed. Chit chat, predictions, one word responses etc. should go into banter. 10 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I am seeing a pinwheel heart eye on Radarscope. Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The band headed into Sarasota and points West had some hurricane force winds off the deck. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: The band headed into Sarasota and points West had some hurricane force winds off the deck. . I'm not finding them on SailFlow. Where should I look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 IR now shows the eye clearing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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