MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 From the looks of things Idalia is getting ready to launch. Satellite and radar looking quite impressive. Idalia is just getting ready to cross into the southern GOM. I said about 36 hours ago if she can have a core established by that time the stronger solutions will play out. Looks to be entering the GOM as an intensifying Tropical Cyclone. Once she center clears western Cuba I think we are going to be in for a show. Also, IMO I think the nudges westward in the track guidance are over. Looking at WV loop the small upper low over the FL Panhandle is moving east and lifting out. Idalia should follow in that general direction as upper trof dropping through the GL/Upper Ohio Valley eventually takes over the shunts her east off SC/NC coast. Landfall I believe is 25 miles either side of Cedar Key. No doubt in my mind though that the lid is going to come off the pot soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 34 minutes ago, Nibor said: I see some limiting factors on the water vapor map dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Cuban Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Is that the LLC going over the western tip of Cuba or the MLC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. Thinking along same lines on possible adjustment to the right in track and for the same reason you mentioned, though not thinking as far to the right as Sarasota. Pine Island maybe? IMO not concerned about any dry air, atmosphere looks moist ahead (especially if track is more to the right) and if there is some dry air entrained from the SW it should be able to get mixed out quickly with increasingly favorable jet divergence aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along. That Low is not coming that far S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along. Very much agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along. The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently. I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, Hotair said: Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently. I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee I see you are in Tampa. I would personally prepare for the worst and make plans in case it looks like you need to move further inland. While I personally do not believe this will be the case, it would be foolish -in my opinion- not to be ready in case something like this took place. One just need remember Charley in 2004. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hotair said: Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently. I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee And should stay that way, particularly near landfall when sw shear picks up. Saw mention of potential for halfcane or oddly shaped presentation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Meanwhile the 0z NAM is all the way over to Apalachicola about 100 miles west of its 18z run. Crappy model? Yes. Umpteenth west trend today. Yes, too. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seems to be the case more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Radio Minas from Pinar Del Rio Cuba is reporting gusts of 73.9 mph and sustained at 56 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. But unlike for Ian, the GFS isn't 250 miles NW of the UKMET. The model agreement is much better for Idalia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The models all shifting west we saw this last year with Ian then once Ian got into the Gulf everything with each consecutive run kept correcting and coming further and further southeast with a NE trajectory then forced into the coast at Sanibel Island and Fort Myers Beach. The same thing could happen again but just a bit further north just something to watch. The same can be said with past hurricanes like Charlie coming from this same general region near western Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, cptcatz said: GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. Agree. This time it might really go west, but looking on satellite it is difficult to envision. But of course, I can read the model agreement, and it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Jim Cantore arrived in Gainesville tonight and is headed to Cedar Key. recall he was at Clearwater Beach last year when Ian made landfall in Ft. Myers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 New advisory should be out soon, will be interesting to see if they increased the wind speed on it to make it a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 lightning starting up in the CoC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, cptcatz said: GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. Don't disagree on current consensus but GFS was not the outlier for Ian. UK and Euro were mostly the outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Infrared does show an eye for the first time just north of the tip of Cuba with lightning popping around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Idalia really looking much healthier over the last several hours - much more concentric convection around the center, as the shear has obviously eased somewhat. But still a TS... Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center, with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot over the western part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the northwestern quadrant. Radar images from the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming. Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength. The maximum winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory. The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at around 7 kt. Idalia should be steered northward along the western side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to a trough to its northwest. This track will take the center across the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter. In 2 to 3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to eastward off the coast of the Carolinas. The official track forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous one. This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the ECMWF on the right side. Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This, along with a conducive thermodynamic atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame. The official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf coast. This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other intensity guidance. Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone's specific landfall intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm surge event will occur. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia. 3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 23.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1200Z 33.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/0000Z 34.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Key West Radar. Let the watch begin. To pick-up echos from that distance...spinning like a mofo at what maybe 40-50k. The obligatory "BOMBS AWAY" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Visually it reminds me so much of Irene in October 1999. I remember the original forecasts and the models kept showing west and eventually, Irene just dragged more and more east. I think that's why my visual take on Idalia is giving me a memory back to tracks similar to Irene 1999, where the storm sort of drags eastward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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