August 2023

[Stormlover74]

9 hours ago, psv88 said:

No rain 

We're now getting back to needing some rain after a dry week

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1944)
NYC: 101 (1944)
LGA: 100 (1955)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1951)
NYC: 56 (1951)
LGA: 57 (1972)

 

Historical:

 

1843 - A spectacular cloudburst near Philadelphia turned the small creeks and streams entering the Delaware River into raging torrents. As much as sixteen inches of rain fell in just three hours. Flooding destroyed thirty-two county bridges, and caused nineteen deaths. It is believed that several small tornadoes accompanied the torrential rains, one of which upset and sank more than thirty barges on the Schuylkill River. (David Ludlum)

 

1875: Several tornadoes moved across northern and central Illinois. One of the stronger tornadoes touched down in Warren and Knox County where it destroyed 25 homes and killed two people. Another in a series of tornadoes touched down near Knoxville and moved east into northern Peoria County. This estimated F4 tornado injured 40 people and was described by eyewitnesses as looking like a "monstrous haystack."

1961 - The temperature at Ice Harbor Dam, WA, soared to 118 degrees to equal the state record established at Wahluke on the 24th of July in 1928. The afternoon high of 111 degrees at Havre, MT, was an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked eastern South Dakota. The thunderstorms spawned half a dozen tornadoes, produced softball size hail at Bowdle, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph south of Watertown. Hot weather continued in eastern Texas. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Houston and 106 degrees at Waco equalled records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Indiana and Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and New York State during the day. Thunderstorms in Michigan produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Ashley, Hastings and Lennon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, and from Iowa to the Upper Ohio Valley, with 216 reports of large hail or damaging winds between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms moving across Iowa around sunrise produced extremely high winds which caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Carroll and Greene Counties. Thunderstorm winds at Jefferson IA reached 102 mph. Afternoon thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Bay Mills, WI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[Stormlover74]

SPC Day 3

 

[Allsnow]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We're now getting back to needing some rain after a dry week

It doesn’t take long this time of year..

[MJO812]

Going upstate next week. Please don't rain but the models show alot of rain. 

[BxEngine]

Got about 1/2” with the storms overnight. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Zip on the island and the city last night. Always surprises me when a front comes through dry this time of year. Onto Monday/Tuesday 

[LoboLeader1]

Gorgeous 75F here in the Berks this AM, topped out at 76 yesterday. Line of severe t-storms passed thru this area of western MA last evening, accompanied by strong wind gusts, and heavy downpours. Noticed we are losing daylight slowly (sunset is a minute earlier ) each day now. Headed up to New Hampshire this later this afternoon.

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Got about 1/2” with the storms overnight. 

1.01” here with pea sized hail and a few older trees down a little after 9pm last night. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

77 / 67 and partly cloudy.  Continue the Puppy days of summer the next two days with a gorgeous weekend enroute.  Warm southerly flow Mon (8/7) - Wed (8/9) humid, warm with storms. When and where the sun is out it'll heat up quickly - this is like early Jul, so some chances at 90 in the sunnier / clearer spots and humid.  Thu (8/10) - Sat (8/12) transition as trough lifts and the western Atlantic ridge builds west more storms chances by the end of the week and weekend 8/12.  

 

Beyond there The W. Atl Ridge builds back into the EC anchoring in a warm humid flow with some heat.  Will go more into the pure dog days then.  We'll have to see the progression and strength vs the late July projections.  But overall warm and humid and likely storms chances (more if the boundary is nearby and more scattered / isolated if stronger W.A.R).

 

 

You might be rushing the heat and humidity back in. I think it takes until August 15th for us to have our next 90+ threat. WAR tries to build in earlier but is short circuited by a few backdoor and other weak cold fronts with showers and storms. Starting about the 15th I think we could see a little more prolonged heat. Of course NYC (Central Park) has not had an official heatwave (3 or more days 90+) this season so far. I think they will have two or three more shots at one between now and September 10th.....probably two shots in August. Around Aug 15th-17th and again Aug 20th-23rd.

WX/PT

[MANDA]

Latest WPC QPF outlook is pretty robust next 72 hours over NW/W NJ and EPA with 2" to locally 3"+, especially over EPA.  PWAT will be approaching 2" or slightly higher with rather slow moving CF pushing into that juicy air mass.  As of this morning issuance SPC had SLT risk of severe over western sections of this forum.

Could use a little rainfall to refresh the top soil.  Not is dire need by any means.

[bluewave]

Excessive tree growth has caused NYC to significantly decline on the heatwave list since 1971. NYC was near the top for heatwaves during the 1971-1980 period of 10 warm seasons. It has dropped to the bottom of the list on the most recent 10 season period from 2014 to 2023. 

# of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves 

1971-1980

EWR………………..………….23

NYC………………………..….21

Freehold-Marlboro….…..19

New Brunswick……………18

LGA……………………………..12

POU…………………………….12

# of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves + increase since 1971-1980

2014-2023

Freehold-Marlboro……..52…..+33 

Newark………………………41……+18 

New Brunswick…………..38……+20 

LGA…………………………….28……+16

POU…………………………….28……+16

NYC…………………………….20……..-1

[CIK62]

7+"?

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Latest WPC QPF outlook is pretty robust next 72 hours over NW/W NJ and EPA with 2" to locally 3"+, especially over EPA.  PWAT will be approaching 2" or slightly higher with rather slow moving CF pushing into that juicy air mass.  As of this morning issuance SPC had SLT risk of severe over western sections of this forum.

Could use a little rainfall to refresh the top soil.  Not is dire need by any means.

Euro is quite wet Monday morning. Not sure how that will impact our severe chances later in the day

[winterwx21]

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is quite wet Monday morning. Not sure how that will impact our severe chances later in the day

The CMC has rain during the morning too. Yeah that could mess up storm chances later in the day, but I'll be happy as long as we get a decent amount of rain Monday. As you said we need it again after a dry week. I watered the garden today because the soil has really dried out. 

Looks as if we have another chance of storms on Tuesday, and then a beautiful day on Wednesday as we go back to lower humidity. 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The CMC has rain during the morning too. Yeah that could mess up storm chances later in the day, but I'll be happy as long as we get a decent amount of rain Monday. As you said we need it again after a dry week. I watered the garden today because the soil has really dried out. 

Looks as if we have another chance of storms on Tuesday, and then a beautiful day on Wednesday as we go back to lower humidity. 

I think we might be caught in between. Where monday the threat is further west and then Tuesday it shifts to new England, but we should at least have rain chances

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The CMC has rain during the morning too. Yeah that could mess up storm chances later in the day, but I'll be happy as long as we get a decent amount of rain Monday. As you said we need it again after a dry week. I watered the garden today because the soil has really dried out. 

Looks as if we have another chance of storms on Tuesday, and then a beautiful day on Wednesday as we go back to lower humidity. 

We’ll see if we can get 3 rounds of convection Monday into Tuesday. One round with the morning warm front. Then another with the cold front later on. Plenty of helicity and shear so embedded spin ups may be possible. Then maybe some cold pool storms Tuesday as the UL tracks across.

[Rtd208]

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another fair and pleasantly warm day. Highs will mainly reach the lower and middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible on Monday.

Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August.

The U.S. Southwest is again in the midst of unseasonable heat. Phoenix reached 116° today (old record: 115°, 2019). Albuquerque, Deming, El Paso, and Truth or Consequences all reached or exceeded their August monthly records. The intense heat will slowly fade next week, but additional locations could reach or break their August monthly records.

Baton Rouge reached 100° for the 8th consecutive day. That tied the record of 8 consecutive days from August 19-26, 1921. That record will likely be broken on Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -21.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.819 today.

On August 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.161 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.951 (RMM).

 

[winterwarlock]

Meh ive had over 10 inches s the past 40 days are so..im fine if it doesn't  rain..we are lush green

[SACRUS]

 

8/5

 

EWR: 88
NYC: 87
BLM: 86
New Brnswck: 86
PHL: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
ISP:  85
JFK: 84
TTN: 84
ACY: 82

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Meh ive had over 10 inches s the past 40 days are so..im fine if it doesn't  rain..we are lush green

Oh it's definitely going to rain. Very unusually potent system for early August coming through. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   79degs.(71/88) or +2.

Reached 84 here yesterday.

Today:   82-86, wind variable, p. sunny, 72 tomorrow AM.

73*(58%RH) here at 7am.    76* at 9am.      77* at 11am.      76* at Noon.     80* at 4pm.     Reached 82* at 6pm.

[Rtd208]

Regardles of the severe outcome the 00z/06z GFS has become quite wet and the HPC continues to highlight the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. We'll see how things shake out.

[SACRUS]

 

77 / 61 and partly cloudy. Warm and less humid and perhaps less cloudy than Saturday.  Mid / upper 80s.  Mon (8/7) - Wed (8/9)  warm , humid and very stormy.  There doesnt seem to be enough breaks in any of the clouds to offer a few hot spots 90, but airmass is warm enough.  Rain could add up 1 - 2 inches widespread with heavier amounts >3 inches.

Beyond there  the western Atlantic ridge is building west in phases, first bumping against the trough and establishing boundary by late week into the weekend Fri (8/11) - Sat (8/12), perhaos a vigorous piece of energy with storms / heavy rain..    By Sun (8/13) and into Mon (8/14) heights and humidity are risging but still storms chances.  By early next week the W. Atl Ridge is pushing 594 DM into  or just south of the area (similar to late July) and the next shot at some stronger heat.  

 

Overall - warm / humid with some heat in the way beyond with tropics setup to come alive.

 

  

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 97 ( 2001)  start of that record heat, also a low record high for EWR
NYC: 97 (1955)
LGA: 95 (2018)

 

Lows:

EWR: 54 (1934)
NYC: 56 (1869)
LGA: 57 (1994)

Historical: 

 

1890 - Thunderstorms left four inches of hail covering the ground in Adair County and Union County in Iowa. The hail drifted into six foot mounds, and in some places remained on the ground for twenty- six days. (The Weather Channel)

1918 - Unusually hot weather began to overspread the Atlantic Coast States, from the Carolinas to southern New England. The temp- erature soared to an all-time record high of 106 degrees at Washington D.C., and Cumberland and Keedysville hit 109 degrees to establish a state record for Maryland. Temperatures were above normal east of the Rockies that month, with readings much above normal in the Lower Missouri Valley. Omaha NE reached 110 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1959 - A bucket survey showed that thunderstorms dropped 16.70 inches of rain on parts of Decatur County IA. The total was accepted as Iowa's 24 hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Evening thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Winner SD damaging two hundred homes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms deluged Milwaukee, WI, with 6.84 inches of rain, including more than five inches in two hours, breaking all previous rainfall records for the city. Floodwaters were four feet deep at the Milwaukee County Stadium, and floodwaters filled the basement of the main terminal at the airport. Flooding caused 5.9 million dollars damage, and claimed the life of one person. Death Valley, CA, reported a morning low of 97 degrees. A midday thunderstorm deluged Birmingham AL with nearly six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Pennsylvania and New York State. A cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Livingston MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwestern Texas to the Southern Appalachians, and in the northeastern U.S. There were 136 reports of large hail or damaging winds during the day and evening. Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region produced tennis ball size hail northwest of Buffalo OK, and wind gusts to 100 mph at Pampa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: Virginia experienced its worst tornado outbreak ever as 18 tornadoes ripped through the state in 5 hours. The most devastating tornado caused severe damage in the historic part of Petersburg. The storm then moved on to Pocahontas Island and into Colonial Heights. There, the storm ripped apart a WalMart store, killing three people and injuring nearly 200. The F4 twister was the first known violent tornado in Virginia history. It killed a total of 4 people and injured 246 along its 12-mile path. Total damages were near $50 million. 

 

[Allsnow]

Need to rain….models all in agreement for around a inch 

[MJO812]

Looks like a rainy Monday and Tuesday coming up. 

I hope the rain misses the NYC metro area  on Tuesday because I have family day at work.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

77 / 61 and partly cloudy. Warm and less humid and perhaps less cloudy than Saturday.  Mid / upper 80s.  Mon (8/7) - Wed (8/9)  warm , humid and very stormy.  There doesnt seem to be enough breaks in any of the clouds to offer a few hot spots 90, but airmass is warm enough.  Rain could add up 1 - 2 inches widespread with heavier amounts >3 inches.

Beyond there  the western Atlantic ridge is building west in phases, first bumping against the trough and establishing boundary by late week into the weekend Fri (8/11) - Sat (8/12), perhaos a vigorous piece of energy with storms / heavy rain..    By Sun (8/13) and into Mon (8/14) heights and humidity are risging but still storms chances.  By early next week the W. Atl Ridge is pushing 594 DM into  or just south of the area (similar to late July) and the next shot at some stronger heat.  

 

Overall - warm / humid with some heat in the way beyond with tropics setup to come alive.

 

  

 

 

[uofmiami]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like a rainy Monday and Tuesday coming up. 

I hope the rain misses the NYC metro area  on Tuesday because I have family day at work.

Quick look at models shows 1st batch of rain for tomorrow morning. 2nd batch is overnight into early Tuesday morning with warm front. Maybe later Tuesday as front moves through we’ll see another round.  Overall I think you’ll be ok for family day at work on Tuesday.