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July 2023


Stormlover74
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57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All of my rain came this morning…missed on everything this evening 

Nothing at all for me morning and evening, but we've had plenty of rain lately so that's ok. Now we get to enjoy a spectacular low humidity stretch for the next several days. Looks as if our next rain chance doesn't come until Friday. 

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In the wake of the frontal passage, tomorrow will turn noticeably cooler and less humid. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first week of August.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks will conclude over the next day or perhaps two days. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, extreme heat could rebuild next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was 0.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.163 today.

On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.374 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.274 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

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