MANDA Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: A lot of models now bring in the rain overnight wednesday night. I remember a few days ago looking at the CMC and being surprised that it was bringing rain up into the area wednesday, since all other models had the rain staying south until the end of the week. It was slightly fast but it looks as if the CMC had the right idea bringing in the rain much earlier. Anyway I'm glad we're finally gonna bust out of this dry pattern. The ground here is already very dry again since we didn't get enough rain last week, so it's great that it looks likely that this pattern will deliver and give us the rain that we desperately need. Looks like a bona fide wetter pattern coming up with key ingredients coming into place. Been a long time since we've had a deep layer southerly flow around here. Would not be at all surprised to see some local 4" totals around this forum over the next 7 days. This wetter pattern is going to really help lawns and gardens. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 6 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Pretty good discussion from Mt.Holly on the rain and thunderstorm potential over the next several days beginning Thursday. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Following a record dry May and a fairly dry start to June, the northern mid-Atlantic is looking at an extended period of warm, humid and rather wet weather for the end of the week, the weekend, and even into next week. The flow throughout much of the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut- off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region. The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition and the ground becomes more saturated. && If it were possible I'd be in 200% agreement. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @winterwx21 and @Stormlover74 hopefully this doesn’t disappoint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 20, 2023 Author Share Posted June 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @winterwx21 and @Stormlover74 hopefully this doesn’t disappoint I think every model has at least 2" for us by Monday. The gfs shifted the 3 to 5" amounts north of the area though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think every model has at least 2" for us by Monday. The gfs shifted the 3 to 5" amounts north of the area though Saturday on the CMC and Ukie didn't look too bad now. Even on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @winterwx21 and @Stormlover74 hopefully this doesn’t disappoint Yeah our area often has such bad luck. Hopefully the heavy rains won't somehow find a way to miss us again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 hopefully we get a few drenchers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 44 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: hopefully we get a few drenchers If I get anything less than 2" between 12Z Thursday - 6/22 and 12Z Thursday - 6/29 I will be extremely disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Make it hold off until at least 11pm Wednesday. Thanx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Make it hold off until at least 11pm Wednesday. Thanx. Looks like it will start Thursday morning . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 The CMC is the most promising for those hoping against a washout Saturday. I want the beneficial rains, just not on Saturday. But, what will be, will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 3 hours ago, FPizz said: Saturday on the CMC and Ukie didn't look too bad now. Even on the GFS And 12z Euro isn't showing much activity for the weekend and monday. Hopefully we'll get a good amount thursday and friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: And 12z Euro isn't showing much activity for the weekend and monday. Hopefully we'll get a good amount thursday and friday. For who ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: For who ? For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Tomorrow will be another fair day. Afterward, a potentially prolonged stretch of unsettled weather will develop. Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 6 pm CDT included: Abilene: 108° (old record: 106°, 1934) Austin: 106° (tied record set in 1934) Brownsville: 98° Corpus Christi: 99° Cotulla: 115° (old record: 107°, 2019) Del Rio: 113° (old record: 106°, 1996 and 1998) ***New all-time record*** Houston: 100° Junction: 110° (old record: 104°, 1953) ***Record 6th 105°+ June day*** Laredo: 113° (old record: 109°, 1996 and 2011) McAllen: 106° (old record: 103°, 2017) San Angelo: 114° (old record: 110°, 1969) ***New all-time record*** San Antonio: 106° (old record: 103°, 1996) Victoria: 98° Zapata: 115° (old record: 107°, 1980) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was -22.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.631 today. On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.203 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.605 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend. It looks pretty widespread to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Beautiful evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 6/20 TEB: 79 PHL: 79 EWR: 78 NYC: 78 TTN: 76 LGA: 76 JFK: 75 New Brnswck: 74 ISP: 74 BLM: 71 ACY: 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 4 hours ago, winterwx21 said: For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend. Good...we don't need 4-5 inches of rain 1-2 inches are fine Why are people rooting for 7 days of clouds at the total beginning of summer 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: Good...we don't need 4-5 inches of rain 1-2 inches are fine Why are people rooting for 7 days of clouds at the total beginning of summer Sorry you spent all your warlock points on may where we had our sunniest may on record 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 I wonder if the heat in Texas will eventually begin to spread north and east, looking back at maps for June 1936 it looked fairly similar and that intense heat did not really begin to move out of the south until early July. The real push northeast began around July 3-4. It reached the Midwest by 5th-6th and the northeast U.S. by 8th-9th. I don't suppose this will be equal but it could be a change in the pattern. There were actually some quite cool days in early July of 1936 before the record heat wave began. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 5 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Good...we don't need 4-5 inches of rain 1-2 inches are fine Why are people rooting for 7 days of clouds at the total beginning of summer Yes we do. No it isn't. Have you seen some of the reservoirs? Did you know that NY State is about to see it's worst strawberry harvest in decades? It's really dry... I'd rather not have a wet week but sometimes it's necessary. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: Yes we do. No it isn't. Have you seen some of the reservoirs? Did you know that NY State is about to see its worst strawberry harvest in decades? It's really dry... I'd rather not have a wet week but sometimes it's necessary. Exactly. We need a prolonged very wet period to bring back up ground water levels as well. It’s actually been wetter on the south shore of the island than it has been in the city which is very rare during the warm season. Meanwhile, it definitely does not feel like the first day of summer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 9 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Good...we don't need 4-5 inches of rain 1-2 inches are fine Why are people rooting for 7 days of clouds at the total beginning of summer That's better than the heat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 74degs.(66/81) or -1. Month to date is 68.9[-1.7]. Should be 70.3[-1.5] by the 29th. Reached 82 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 68-73, wind e., m. cloudy, 60 tomorrow AM. 64*(77%RH) here at 7am{was 62 at 5am}. 67* at 9am. 70* at 10am. 72* at Noon. 74* at 3pm. 76* at 4pm. Reached 77* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: That's better than the heat ??? Its summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 9 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: Sorry you spent all your warlock points on may where we had our sunniest may on record Except it was milky haze most of those days so i didnt notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: ??? Its summer I guess it depends on what your preference is. I personally like the heat but rather not the humidity. Definitely need the rain but a week straight of it is ehhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 It's actually a bit chilly this morning. This spring feels like The Ice Age compared to the last 10 years and it's not too far off from the old normal. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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