April 2023

[weathermedic]

Up to 74 now.

[Roger Smith]

6 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

That 1985 outbreak is one of the most anomalous weather events in US history based on the number and proportion of violent tornadoes versus where it occurred. I've always wondered if something like that could happen 150 miles east of where it did; the recent uptick in severe weather makes me suspect that it might be possible, if only as a once in 500-year event (I'm referring to a major outbreak of violent tornadoes here, not a singular freak tornado like the Worcester and Windsor Locks events). 

 

Did you know that this outbreak included two F4 tornadoes in south central ON, one was near Grand Valley northwest of Toronto and another one hit Barrie north of Toronto where eight people were killed? That storm continued on for about two hours and dropped funnels several more times towards Peterborough ON where an F-1 did some damage in southwest suburbs. I was living in Peterborough at that time, and we were on the north side of the cell where we got a fairly severe storm too. 

It was quite a strong cold front on a Friday, the next day I was playing golf and there was a westerly wind blowing at 30-40 mph all day and it was much colder too. It had been near 85F on the afternoon of the 31st before the line of storms arrived.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

That 1985 outbreak is one of the most anomalous weather events in US history based on the number and proportion of violent tornadoes versus where it occurred. I've always wondered if something like that could happen 150 miles east of where it did; the recent uptick in severe weather makes me suspect that it might be possible, if only as a once in 500-year event (I'm referring to a major outbreak of violent tornadoes here, not a singular freak tornado like the Worcester and Windsor Locks events). 

 

While those storms dropped below severe levels when they came through Long Beach around midnight, it was the only time I experienced continuous lightning living here on Long Island.

[SACRUS]

Up to 76 here 

some more clearing for a bit could allow for a stray 80 or above

 

 

[Intensewind002]

High bust for temps here today, got up to 76

 

Montauk is only 56 at the moment

[weathermedic]

Up to 77 here now with more sun shining through the overcast

[MANDA]

The interior of southern half of NJ doing well today.

[ma blizzard]

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

That 1985 outbreak is one of the most anomalous weather events in US history based on the number and proportion of violent tornadoes versus where it occurred. I've always wondered if something like that could happen 150 miles east of where it did; the recent uptick in severe weather makes me suspect that it might be possible, if only as a once in 500-year event (I'm referring to a major outbreak of violent tornadoes here, not a singular freak tornado like the Worcester and Windsor Locks events). 

 

 

not quite an "outbreak" .. but just to note, there were also 2 other F3 tornados that day 

[SACRUS]

Sun out / mostly sunny now.

 

Up to 78 here in CNJ.  My see some 80z into n-cnj and NE-NJ in the next 2 hours.

[Stormlover74]

Full sun now. 77

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Sun out / mostly sunny now.

 

Up to 78 here in CNJ.  My see some 80z into n-cnj and NE-NJ in the next 2 hours.

Just hit 80.1

[jm1220]

75 here, 55 on the Sound shore a few miles away. Persistent NE breeze there. 

[weathermedic]

Wind just flipped to SSW and temp is down to 68 now

Down to 60 as of 4:10pm on a SE wind

[winterwx21]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Just hit 80.1

Temps moving up quickly now with this sunshine. It just hit 83 here. 

[jm1220]

Wind finally turning S along the sound, temps climbing through the 60s. 78 here-summer like. South barrier islands stuck in the 50s.  

[psv88]

78 commack 

[SRRTA22]

 one of the best starts to April I can recall

[Cfa]

Topped out at 78. Pleasant surprise.

[LoboLeader1]

High of 79 here today. 

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Generally agree but it's home opener with an off day the next day with 100% chance of dry weather....any other game I agree with you.

I mentioned this in the sports forum as well, and a couple people pointed out that the Mets probably just didn't want to play today after the trip from Milwaukee. They probably just used the slight chance of a late day t-storm as an excuse to postpone a game that they didn't want to play.

Of course baseball is a warm weather sport and today was a very rare chance to have a warm opening day game. Would've been one of the best weather days ever for a home opener. A shame. Instead they'll play in the cooler weather tomorrow. It's so ridiculous that a game can be postponed for a day like today with no rain at all during the afternoon. 

[Rjay]

Hit 78 today

[Will - Rutgers]

beautiful day and the front is so refreshing.  71 now and breezy

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures surged to near record and record high values across the region as the early fog burned off. Prior to the onset of a sea breeze, Islip crushed its daily record. Daily records included:

Islip: 78° (old record: 71°, 1991 and 2010)
New York City-Central Park: 79° (tied record set in 1912 and tied in 1921 and 1947)
New York City-JFK Airport: 74° (old record: 73°, 2010)
Newark: 81° (old record: 80°, 1947)

Atlantic City saw the mercury reach a toasty 87°.

Cooler air will now return to end the week. The cool weather will continue through the weekend before another potentially impressive warmup develops.

If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +12.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.185 today.

On April 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.962 (RMM). The April 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.171 (RMM).

 

[Roger Smith]

Another tie? Memo to self, widen column FG. That was and remains the latest April day not to hit 80F or higher at NYC. 

[Dark Star]

On 4/4/2023 at 4:42 PM, bluewave said:

The AMOC slowdown pulls the Gulf Stream in closer to the Northeast and only cools a small part of the North Atlantic south of Greenland.

In the North Atlantic, the measured values differ markedly from the average global warming: the subpolar Atlantic (an area about half the size of the USA, south of Greenland) has hardly warmed up and in some cases even cooled down, contrary to the global warming trend. In contrast, a wide area along the American east coast has warmed up at an excessive rate. Both can be attributed to a weakening of the AMOC in the model simulation. The cooling is simply due to the reduced heat input from the AMOC. The excessive warming, on the other hand, is based on a somewhat more nerdy mechanism that has been known to experts for some time: if the AMOC weakens, the Gulf Stream shifts closer to the coast. (This has to do with conservation of angular momentum on the rotating globe.)

 

study by Duchez et al. (2016) shows that cold in the North Atlantic correlates with summer heat in Europe. This is due to the fact that the heat transport in the Atlantic has not yet decreased strongly enough to cause cooling also over the adjacent land areas – but the cold of the sea surface is sufficient to influence the air pressure distribution. It does that in such a way that an influx of warm air from the south into Europe is encouraged. In summer 2015, the subpolar Atlantic was colder than ever since records began in the 19th century – associated with a heat wave in Europe. Haarsma et al (2015) argue on the basis of model calculations that the weakening of the AMOC will be the main cause of changes in the summer circulation of the atmosphere over Europe in the future. Jackson et al (2015) found that the slowdown could lead to increased storm activity in Central Europe. And a number of studies suggest that if the AMOC weakens, sea levels on the US coast will rise more sharply (e.g. Yin et al. 2009). The impacts are currently being further researched, but a further AMOC slowdown cannot be considered good news. Yet, although the oscillations seen in Fig. 2 suggest the AMOC may well swing up again for a while, a long-term further weakening is what we have to expect if we let global warming continue for much longer.

 

Wow, so that explains why the NYC metro is way ahead of the average global warming rate?

[Will - Rutgers]

guys it's so nice outside 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

guys it's so nice outside 

It's down from 80 to 63 already 

[Will - Rutgers]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's down from 80 to 63 already 

low 49... cringe

[donsutherland1]

The final high in NYC was 80. That broke the record of 79 that was set in 1912 and tied in 1921 and 1947.

[SRRTA22]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final high in NYC was 80. That broke the record of 79 that was set in 1912 and tied in 1921 and 1947.

We might even push 90 next week if things go well. Such a blessing after a terrible winter. 

Having a cold and damp spring would've been such a shot to the face. 

Love it. @nycwinterstill wearing your winter coat? It is kind of breezy