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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s still two days to iron out the shifts. 

I think we’re still ok here in CT, but it looks like it may be a matter of time before it’s just us in this thread and everyone else has moved on to the next D7+ fantasy. 

Beautiful outside today with SN and temps in the teens. How winter should be. 

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Every run this thing looks shittier and shittier. Shortwave for the loss. Watch it keep dwindling and end up C-2” region wide. Glad I made the trip up North. Easily over a foot OTG and currently snowing here in upstate NY.

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5 minutes ago, jaf said:

From 3 feet to 3 inches over the course of a few days

There was never high odds of 2-3 feet. There seems to be a misunderstanding or delusion of that. This is a disappointment for sure now though as currently modeled. Maybe it's not the end of the world and we trend back to a better event. Don't hold your breath, don't freak out, it's not the end of the world. It just sucks. 

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8 minutes ago, jaf said:

From 3 feet to 3 inches over the course of a few days

If this goes on to 3 inches only ( and that may be too much <_< ...) you're sooo lucky. 

At least you had a few days.  

Try growing up in the 1980s.   There were a lot of multi feet to multi cirrus streaks in 6 hours that decade

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If this goes on to 3 inches only ( and that may be too much <_< ...) you're sooo lucky. 

At least you had a few days.  

Try growing up in the 1980s.   There were a lot of multi feet to multi cirrus streaks in 6 hours that decade

It's been the 1980s for me since March 2018.

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3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Reading your post have been like having a pineapple shoved up my ass this winter. It's bad enough we have to experience the winter first hand

Having to hear about patience and expectations and all that other stuff is like having a railroad spike being driven through my skull.

Ill just patience harder next time, maybe it’ll work out.

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On 2/22/2023 at 5:46 PM, George001 said:

It’s coming, the models had this storm cutting for a while but over the past few cycles it redeveloped further and further south. Now it is looking like a full blown Miller B, with the models showing not only showing 24+ hours of heavy snow, but they are also showing strong winds. With the model consensus rapidly converging on the long duration Miller B solution rather than cutter, it is likely we are looking at a New England blizzard, with the potential to become a historic blizzard (top 10 all time) in the Boston area.

Sorry been away for a few days. we still looking good?

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You know ...at this point, just for mordant humor it'd be funny to see this end up dim sun with dust ... essentially a blank showing, with 50 pages of a thread preceding. 

That - I think - would have to be the greatest magnitude achievement ever, in thread size to negative return ratio

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...at this point, just for mordant humor it'd really cool to see this end up dim sun with dust ... essentially a blank showing, with 50 pages of a thread preceding. 

That - I think - would have to be the greatest magnitude achievement ever, in thread size to negative return ratio

I think we have had similar results before (50 pages with nothing to show).

   I don't think we had had one start out with a giant claim like that before and have it fizzle into the ether...

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On 2/22/2023 at 5:46 PM, George001 said:

It’s coming, the models had this storm cutting for a while but over the past few cycles it redeveloped further and further south. Now it is looking like a full blown Miller B, with the models showing not only showing 24+ hours of heavy snow, but they are also showing strong winds. With the model consensus rapidly converging on the long duration Miller B solution rather than cutter, it is likely we are looking at a New England blizzard, with the potential to become a historic blizzard (top 10 all time) in the Boston area.

36 weenies for this post must be a record 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've managed to halve the 'Recent Browsing' count ...  let's see if we can cricket this f'er by sundown tomorrow  LOL

This may be a Connecticut delegation only thread by then :lol: 

Dryslot wandering into the wilderness mumbling “I tried to tell them about the block”

Ray throwing the kids toys into the Merrimack 

TFizz putting the house up for sale and looking to relocate to Florida 

Georgie looking for other weather boards to call sheared out shortwaves potentially historic blizzards

Kev smilin’

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This may be a Connecticut delegation only thread by then :lol: 

Dryslot wandering into the wilderness mumbling “I tried to tell them about the block”

Ray throwing the kids toys into the Merrimack 

TFizz putting the house up for sale and looking to relocate to Florida 

Georgie looking for other weather boards to call sheared out shortwaves potentially historic blizzards

Kev smilin’

Today might be the biggest event until ...whatever fails (it feels inevitably) on the 4th.

No, I'm in neg head hyperbole mode for fun - hope no one takes this too seriously.  I plan to have fun the rest of the afternoon as a coping mechanism for this embarrassing circumstance.  I mean, thousands of views, and hundreds over in posts and it just seems we should have known better -

And I did. I just lapsed at the time (about 4 days ago) Everything I explained yesterday and today and the day before is true.  The 12z Euro spelled it out in cinematic form, perfectly. 

Like I said, I blundered initially 4 days ago for allowing my self beguiled by that tsunamis of model runs that day.   But the scaffolding for this thing was all wrong back then, and still is...  And that stuff I've been calling "de-magnification" as a euphemism, was also true, all along.  Forget why-for the models do that, they do - I drop the ball on awareness to that, too.   Those two failures "constructively interfered" far better than any S/W could for this p.o.s., and I really fell asleep at the wheel.

I was asked this morning what I thought this would be, if pistol was given a b.j., ...and I said Adv or less as the upper limit.  I'm pretty much now okay with less, period.   I just want to see this thing finally come around the bend into the SW and be fully ingested into the denser more physically realized sounding domain before just not coming in this thread any longer...

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Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

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