dryslot Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 hours ago, dendrite said: F me sideways if this happens Are you new here? If i have to be back doored we should be able to spread the wealth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 hours ago, dendrite said: F me sideways if this happens When CAD bites back. Nothing like 37° RA on April Fool's Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Wowzers Seems an easy guess work that this spring has a chance to be above normal severe accounting ... what, with the semi permanent unflappable f'n western trough? wait'll the diabatics of April solar inferno kicks in the big dawg CAPEs. Can't think of a better leading persistence --> cyclic earth carving twister events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Seems an easy guess work that this spring has a chance to be above normal severe accounting ... what, with the semi permanent unflappable f'n western trough? wait'll the diabatics of April solar inferno kicks in the big dawg CAPEs. Can't think of a better leading persistence --> cyclic earth carving twister events... Yeah if this regime remains through the next few months it's going to be very active. In fact, I think we may be above-average for tornado counts this year thus far. There were some pretty impressive January and February events. There were even setups that didn't pan out so the counts could really be more. SST's are crazy warm in the Gulf so you get deep troughs into the West this time of year and strong s/w ejecting, it's a recipe for widespread outbreaks within that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah if this regime remains through the next few months it's going to be very active. In fact, I think we may be above-average for tornado counts this year thus far. There were some pretty impressive January and February events. There were even setups that didn't pan out so the counts could really be more. SST's are crazy warm in the Gulf so you get deep troughs into the West this time of year and strong s/w ejecting, it's a recipe for widespread outbreaks within that region. and I think it is interesting that the SE has already got some elevated twister accounting, too... That's been papered to be a part of CC btw - so this season adds... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Right out of winter into misery mist season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Looking across the CONUS from ORD-BOS in the various model cinemas ... it appears there will never be a warm season this year, and in fact, CC is a scam and the ice age is nearly upon. Particularly true, in this recent state of the art upgraded GFS model's ... blithe disregard for seasonal change - so it seems. Although, the Euro seems to be shirking seasonal change, too - just in its own inimitable appeal... Neither it nor the GFS seem to acknowledge any geophysical fact that it's f'um April. And no, no snow from that - so don't bother with the 'so long as it won't be warm we may as whole hope' mantra because there is none for that, either... Just cold and infuriating for everyone else. 'Course, we mustn't delude ourselves from the very real and worth-while perspective on April as being the utmost shitbag month out of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Seems an easy guess work that this spring has a chance to be above normal severe accounting ... what, with the semi permanent unflappable f'n western trough? wait'll the diabatics of April solar inferno kicks in the big dawg CAPEs. Can't think of a better leading persistence --> cyclic earth carving twister events... Going to be a busy day, upgrade to tornado driven high risk incoming. Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 311537Z - 311630Z SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook. DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30% probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more information. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Lots of weather today. I hope the tornadoes that form will miss towns and cities. On the cold side of things the models seem to be more bullish for a period of accumulating snow up here. Gray doesn't even have me in a Hazardous Weather Outlook area. Snow map says less than an inch. I'm 39/14F right now This could be a sneaky event this evening. Just cold rain tomorrow. CAD will win and my string of no 50F this year will continue. So close but so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 I will do a full write up next week, but here is a sneak preview....nipple low be damned, I am pretty happy with my forecast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Not bad call from 4 months out on 11/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Main issue I see was a theme all season long....lower western heights than anticipated, even though I did expect lower heights out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 I feel like phasing imperfections like that nipple low can be caused by low western heights, too....because phasing systems are akin to tropical systems in that they are very sensitive to less than ideal permutations in the flow. A bit more ridging out west and lower SE heights could have allowed for a more proficient phase, so I don't want to come off as though its all a product of chance. My forecast definitely wasn't perfect. Very happy with how I handled the artic this year...but what went on out west was just soooo anomalous that it really threw a major wrinkle in things this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 58 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Lots of weather today. I hope the tornadoes that form will miss towns and cities. On the cold side of things the models seem to be more bullish for a period of accumulating snow up here. Gray doesn't even have me in a Hazardous Weather Outlook area. Snow map says less than an inch. I'm 39/14F right now This could be a sneaky event this evening. Just cold rain tomorrow. CAD will win and my string of no 50F this year will continue. So close but so far. Will be 60+ here tomorrow. Come on down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Right out of winter into misery mist season. Only 1.8" from cracking the century mark. However, the past two Aprils had 1.6" and 0.2". Had 100.5" in 2010-11, maybe 99.5" this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will be 60+ here tomorrow. Come on down. Euro gives me an hour of it before fropa. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro dude gives me a handy for an hour before fropa. lol What? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Man...what an unmanned firehose in the GFS ... It's like it can't do it Huge wholesale mass field contortions ranging from -PNAP to +PNAP across a mere 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Alta, Utah over 800” (now 50” more than record year). 23” last 12 hours and 33” last 24th. Storm total 40”. Another 30-50” storm coming after the weekend. At this rate they’ll be near 1,000” by season’s end lol. Remarks: A temporary break in the storm cycle this weekend, before the next potent storm system impacts the area beginning Sunday night and continuing through at least Tuesday, and potentially into Wednesday. This colder system looks to bring and additional 30 to 40 inches of snow through Tuesday with 2.00-2.50 inches of water. Some potential exists for larger numbers depending on how the overall trough evolves beyond Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Crazy crazy luck a skier ran over his board back country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? Hell of a way to ring in a cold front- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 41/16 Ha, light snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 10 hours ago, dendrite said: F me sideways if this happens I would say yes, and that's why you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Euro with a snowstorm day 9 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro with a snowstorm day 9 Actually has a very well-placed sfc high....that's how we know it won't verify in this season. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually has a very well-placed sfc high....that's how we know it won't verify in this season. Where was that all winter lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Heavy snow at the ski area. Looks like MVL ASOS is at 1/2 Moderate snow down low. KMVL 312019Z AUTO 18003KT 1/2SM SN FG VV016 01/M01 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 42F and light rain starting here in Brooklyn, Fargin raw out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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