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February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z HRRR got some ice down into the I-80 corridor tomorrow morning. 

There will be some dry air to play with early on (dews in the 20s) and precip onset seems to be speeding up, so I guess you never know.

Look at what the HRRR puts down before temps go above freezing for my area. 

image.thumb.png.9ab052bff78e39f4d32738e6d0e12f61.png

Edit: And here's the entire run...FWIW

image.thumb.png.a148ee6f0aabc39cb4e0a0db8d77a386.png

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1 minute ago, Natester said:

DVN pulled the trigger for an Ice Storm Warning for the row of counties just to my north.  Winter Weather Advisory here.

Milwaukee Ice Storm Warning doe SE Wisc

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of a
  quarter to one half of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40
  mph.
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7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

18z NAM FRAM 9with 2m temps in Northern Chicagoland hovering around 32 those ice #'s below are hard to believe)

fram_acc-imp.us_mw.png

My understanding of FRAM is that it's based on 3 main things -- wetbulb temps, wind speeds and precip rates.  I'm still unclear on whether it accounts for warm layer temp.  The wind is pretty favorable for enhanced accretion, but the precip rates and wetbulb temps aren't (too heavy at times and too borderline, respectively).  FRAM will be better than using the freezing rain qpf maps in this case, but it would still make sense to go under that imo.

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I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain.  I'm fine with that.  We got our good storm last week.  I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago.

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain.  I'm fine with that.  We got our good storm last week.  I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago.

I'd genuinely rather miss out altogether than have a mega dog trend to a big dog. To be that excited for something labeled as potentially historic for days only for it to trend downwards would be far worse than just another miss in an already shit winter. Here's to hoping that things shift back. 

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On 2/19/2023 at 2:29 PM, SchaumburgStormer said:

Waiting for model weakening and qpf lowering, as is tradition 

 

7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain.  I'm fine with that.  We got our good storm last week.  I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago.

Delayed, but not denied. 

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain.  I'm fine with that.  We got our good storm last week.  I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago.

That has been the theme for most storms this winter.  QPF gets cuts back over time.

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4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

That has been the theme for most storms this winter.  QPF gets cuts back over time.

We always fall for it.

Take a QPF output 72 hours out and halve it. That's the reality of being this far from the ocean, we don't have the moisture transport.

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22 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'd genuinely rather miss out altogether than have a mega dog trend to a big dog. To be that excited for something labeled as potentially historic for days only for it to trend downwards would be far worse than just another miss in an already shit winter.

I disagree, while it sucks seeing 12-15”  instead of 18-22” I want us to crack the top 10 for longest continuous snowcover of 1” or more. #10 is 107 days and we are at 84 days today. Plus still have a shot at the all time seasonal snowfall record. If I was chasing futility maybe I’d have a different outlook.

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KLOT went with Winter Weather Advisory

 

ILZ003>006-220500-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.230222T1200Z-230223T1200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake,
Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove,
Mundelein, and Gurnee
300 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet expected. Total ice accumulations
  of two to three tenths of an inch with locally higher possible
  near the state line, while total sleet accumulations up to one
  half inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Lake IL Counties.
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4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

KLOT went with Winter Weather Advisory

 

ILZ003>006-220500-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.230222T1200Z-230223T1200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake,
Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove,
Mundelein, and Gurnee
300 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet expected. Total ice accumulations
  of two to three tenths of an inch with locally higher possible
  near the state line, while total sleet accumulations up to one
  half inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Lake IL Counties.

The middle to high end range of their forecast ice amounts would be warning criteria.  Will be interesting to see the reasoning in the afd.

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38 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Tried telling people this yesterday. Been that way for years. I doubt the trends are done as well. Hoping for a miracle here. Not sure I'll get it.

Very true about QPF and it seems to be worse but there always seems to be a place or two that it is close.

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54 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Tried telling people this yesterday. Been that way for years. I doubt the trends are done as well. Hoping for a miracle here. Not sure I'll get it.

If there was some 1055 high pressure to the NNE of Lake Huron this was crashing into.  I would have some hope.  Of course then I would dry air issues :lmao:

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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I disagree, while it sucks seeing 12-15”  instead of 18-22” I want us to crack the top 10 for longest continuous snowcover of 1” or more. #10 is 107 days and we are at 84 days today. Plus still have a shot at the all time seasonal snowfall record. If I was chasing futility maybe I’d have a different outlook.

Well yeah, I mean in your position I'd definitely take anything. Shit, in my position too I suppose. But in terms of stickiness..

 

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