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February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
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Let me just get this out of the way from the top.  I fully expect this to be a fail storm imby given the current depiction and the way the season has gone so far really leaves no reason to be personally optimistic.

With that being said, we currently have pretty remarkable model/ensemble agreement on a potential big (or biggish) ticket item affecting the sub next week.  It looks to have a lot of moisture and a tremendous thermal gradient.  Potential exists for pretty significant snow and ice accumulations, certainly favoring north of I-80 (possibly well north).

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13 minutes ago, Chambana said:

MSP special. Spring winning the battle 

At least you should get into some real deal warmth there (60s plus).  Here it will probably be something stupid like being stuck in the 40s or spiking higher at like 3 am when nobody is outside anyway.  :lol:

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At least you should get into some real deal warmth there (60s plus).  Here it will probably be something stupid like being stuck in the 40s or spiking higher at like 3 am when nobody is outside anyway.  :lol:

Grid has 70. I want futility records at this point. Lawn got a good drink this morning at 36 degrees and heavy rain. Let the green up commence. 

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Just now, OrdIowPitMsp said:

The global models seem fairly honed in on hammering Minnesota next week. It’s not often there’s such strong agreement this far out, it will be very interesting to see what goes wrong. 

Trend is your friend, ride the hot hand. MSP won’t be denied. Warm front surging to Chicago

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I'm pretty sure we've had at least a couple events this year that started off with great model consensus over the high plains and ended up fucking off east of here. Not trying to hype up or anything, just saying that what might look like remarkable model agreement now could vanish entirely in two hours

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5 minutes ago, roardog said:

This one could be quite an ice storm somewhere since it will have a ton of moisture and respectable shallow cold to the north of the front. 

It should pack a punch wherever it ends up.  Barring a complete collapse/change in evolution, this should be a fairly breezy storm.  You don't need an inch of ice to cause a lot of impacts when you throw in the wind.

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A zone of significant icing and sleet to its north certainly plausible in this setup, and severe weather in the warm sector. The sharp baroclinic zone and juiced air mass would still be in play with a weaker system, so given the 1035-1040 mb high pressure sandwiched to the north and northeast, that would bring the freezing rain and sleet zones farther south.

As it stands, the 12z ECMWF verbatim showing ice storm criteria ice amounts (including with FRAM estimate) and 1-2" of sleet north of I-88 and into southern Wisconsin even with a fairly deep surface low is a red flag for what could happen with a slightly weaker and farther south low pressure track.





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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

A zone of significant icing and sleet to its north certainly plausible in this setup, and severe weather in the warm sector. The sharp baroclinic zone and juiced air mass would still be in play with a weaker system, so given the 1035-1040 mb high pressure sandwiched to the north and northeast, that would bring the freezing rain and sleet zones farther south.

As it stands, the 12z ECMWF verbatim showing ice storm criteria ice amounts (including with FRAM estimate) and 1-2" of sleet north of I-88 and into southern Wisconsin even with a fairly deep surface low is a red flag for what would happen with a slightly weaker and farther south low pressure track.


 

A decent number of 06z EPS members tracked through downstate IL/IN.

Also appears like we could have multiple surface lows.

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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

 

Hard pressed to find model/ensemble solutions that miss Minnesota.  Even the ones that have a track through the I-70 corridor of IL/IN have an expansive snow shield throughout Minnesota.  That solution obviously wouldn't be as impactful there, but it wouldn't be a miss either.

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54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hard pressed to find model/ensemble solutions that miss Minnesota.  Even the ones that have a track through the I-70 corridor of IL/IN have an expansive snow shield throughout Minnesota.  That solution obviously wouldn't be as impactful there, but it wouldn't be a miss either.

It’s remarkable how much consistency we are seeing. I feel pretty confident in something significant occurring imby next week. I don’t buy the Euro outputs of 24”+ but we’ve already had one 15” storm this season why not make it two. 

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