Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

The GFS seems to have higher pressures around the Lakes compared to other models, which likely explains why it's getting ice a bit farther south.

In any case, there is a nice feed of cold/dry air (dews in the 20s) coming off of the high, which spells big trouble for somebody.  It's just a matter of exact placement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Meanwhile up here we are going to get absolutely buried if these trends keep holding. Just an insane amount of snow. I've only experienced this amount of snow once with the 12/20/12 blizzard. So to potentially do that again and then add a couple more inches would be unimaginable. Especially since I don't have to worry about shoveling or driving in it. Also this would smash a lot of 1 and 2 day snowfall records across most of the state.

E0C3422E-EF1E-4707-973A-ED507A31105C.png

Shades of the April 2018 blizzard 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models have been remarkably locked in on MSP seeing an all-timer. Can't remember seeing such consistency on the models for several days. That sure doesn't happen in these parts, thats for sure, lol. Anyways, here's their top 5 snowstorm list. This one is a lock to be inside that list, as long as both parts are considered one system, which I assume it will.

1) 28.4" Oct 31-Nov 3, 1991

2) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985

3) 20.0" Jan 22-23, 1982

4) 17.4" Jan 20-21, 1982

5) 17.1" Dec 10-11, 2010

As well, here's their top 5 3-day total snowfall list:

1) 34.6" Jan 20-22, 1982

2) 27.8" Oct 31-Nov 2, 1991

3) 26.7" Oct 30-Nov 1, 1991

4) 21.7" Jan 22-24, 1982

5) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985

And finally, MSP sits at 55.6" for the season. This storm may put them close to 80" by the time it's done, if all really goes to plan. And with the pattern locked into them seeing several more snow events in the next 2 weeks, their season snowfall record is in serious jeopardy. They may "2007-08 MSN" their possibly former #1. List below...

1) 98.6" in 1983-84

2) 95.0" in 1981-82

3) 88.9" in 1950-51

4) 86.6" in 2010-11

5) 84.9" in 1916-17

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z NAM 12k has the main precip missing much of eastern Iowa.  Has a brief period of freezing rain early Thursday morning with temps at 31-32F.  A lot could change from here on out though.

 

Also, we do have a generator, but with the wind on Thursday and if the power goes out, the house will get potentially dangerously cold.  That's why I'm dreading the worst case scenario.  Hoping for not much ice here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing to watch for with 2m temps is if models have phantom snow cover and hanging onto it, or if initialization of snow cover improves. Look at the model snow depth to check that.

This issue could call into question noteworthy ice accums underneath the more pronounced 850 mb warmth, even with FRAM, and less so with northward extent under the less warm portion of the warm nose.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM is a little weird.  Bottles up a lot of precip near the frontal zone, which can occur sometimes, but it doesn't have much, if any support for something that drastic.  Also makes the lead wave fairly weak as it moves across IL/IN etc.  In theory that should lead to a colder solution farther north, and while it did bump colder around northern IL, it didn't really bring ice farther south elsewhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 00z GFS and runs before it are creating phantom snow cover in the model snow depth. In fact, the 00z run didn't initialize terribly with snow depth, but it manufactures phantom snow depth on Wednesday over the southern 2/3 of IA, northern IL, northern IN, and southern lower MI even though the snow accumulation algorithms are correctly not generating any snow accumulations for those areas. That will absolutely affect the 2m temp depiction.

Meanwhile, the 18z Euro didn't have the same issue as the GFS, but initialized poorly with snow depth over the area and holds onto that phantom snow cover into Wednesday. Something to keep in mind when looking at these outputs, again even with the better FRAM output. If the temps are wrong, the output will be too.







  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 00z GFS and runs before it are creating phantom snow cover in the model snow depth. In fact, the 00z run didn't initialize terribly with snow depth, but it manufactures phantom snow depth on Wednesday even though the snow accumulation algorithms are correctly not generating any snow accumulations over the southern 2/3 of IA, northern IL, northern IN, and southern lower MI.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Great catch RC.  Would mean to take its sfc temp output in the area with a good amount of skepticism.

In any case, shaping up to be a tricky call in parts of the metro!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a once in a lifetime system. I'm excited. Fortunate I don't work mid week. 

4 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Models have been remarkably locked in on MSP seeing an all-timer. Can't remember seeing such consistency on the models for several days. That sure doesn't happen in these parts, thats for sure, lol. Anyways, here's their top 5 snowstorm list. This one is a lock to be inside that list, as long as both parts are considered one system, which I assume it will.

It should be. The Winter Storm watch is continuous. The AFDs have made it seem so as well. Also some runs like the Canadian model don't even have a break in the snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...