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February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
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17 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

I would imagine GRR would hoist watches this afternoon considering every model gives them heavy wintry precip in some form. IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too. 

I just don't know if anywhere south of I-94 needs something. The more you look at the models, the more likely everywhere north of there is your best bet for heavy ice/snow

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1 minute ago, Natester said:

18z HRRR waaaaay too far north with the warm temps and way too fast with the lead low.  Has the warm front along I-80 in Iowa.  We'll see what the NAM says.

I feel like all is right in the world when the longer range RAP and HRRR are jacked.  Feels a little weird when they aren't.  :P

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4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

It’s gonna be close here, a little shift is the difference between rain and crippling ice. If the south trend continues the ice threat will be even bigger.

I would go with a more northern forecast at this time. Just such a surge of warm air that I doubt significant ice occurs south of 94 in Michigan

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39 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

I may never see a forecast like this around here again.


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IMG_6728.thumb.jpg.b6aef95b8be56205cc6b3a8a191e6fc1.jpgIMG_6729.thumb.jpg.691a8637279b48ad1df21611ade5d723.jpg

It’s just unbelievable what the models keep spitting out, and with a metro bullseye to boot. Todays teaser clipper dropped more then expected too. Still trying to temper my expectations but it’s tough with such consistency 

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It’s just unbelievable what the models keep spitting out, and with a metro bullseye to boot. Todays teaser clipper dropped more then expected too. Still trying to temper my expectations but it’s tough with such consistency 

Me too. I’m still waiting for the bottom to drop out somehow but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to. Maybe we’ll have a legit shot to break the Halloween Blizzard record.


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7 minutes ago, Lightning said:

We need that Josh magnet to start working!!!  :D

 

I need to find the one I had. Lol Truthfully though considering what areas outside the lake zones have seen snowfall isn't that far off the mark of where it should be for here. Still that ice I have no use for especially not the amounts some of the models have been showing. 

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Here's a little something for Chicago area folks.

Since 2000, there have only been 3 occurrences of a calendar day precip of 1"+ which had less than 1" of snow/sleet and highs in the 30s.  Coincidentally, 2 of those days recorded the exact same amount of precip.

 

Date/high/low/precip/snow amount

4/4/2003:  39/32, 1.22", 0

2/16/2006:  37/22, 1.09", T

3/24/2016:  39/30, 1.09", T

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53 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:


Me too. I’m still waiting for the bottom to drop out somehow but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to. Maybe we’ll have a legit shot to break the Halloween Blizzard record.


 

I would like nothing more then to break the Halloween blizzard record. Even challenging it would mean a top 3 storm here. Honestly I thought the April 2018 storm was the best I’d see for awhile but this winter has been something else. 

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