mnchaserguy

Made the last second decision to play northwest IA thanks to the dry slot cleaning out just enough to get things going. I should have left the house an hour earlier. Missed the tors but still saw a lot of good rotation and motion. I’m really surprised this thing didn’t produce while I was on it. The 0-3km CAPE must’ve been zapped just enough to keep the lowest levels of the atmosphere from being able to finish it off. Oh well. Solid first chase of the season. .

I wouldn’t call it a cap bust. Early precip is screwing up the heating and probably leading to some subsidence as well. Temps don’t rebound out of the 60s behind that initial band. .

I want to chase tomorrow but it looks really messy. An initial band of severe storms comes through Iowa early afternoon and mixes up the environment. Highly doubt anything substantial happens after that initial band comes through, unless you get way down to southeast IA or northern MO, which is out of range for me on a Tuesday. Hoping the 0z CAMs look more promising for the later afternoon. The early band may still produce a couple tors but it’ll be damn near impossible to know where or when to be on it to have a chance seeing anything. .

Surprise snow here in MSP this morning. Roads are just wet but I bet we will pick up a quick inch in the grass. It’s coming down about as hard as it has all winter. .

Allegedly we got 10” here in Blaine Sunday night/Monday morning. Combined with the 4” we got last Thursday and the 4-6” we will have by the end of today, we will be close to 20” here in the last five or six days. .

Yep. Looks like MSP is in the sweet spot. The area of snow is just rotating right over us. The Duluth radar looks crazy too. North Shore is getting dumped on again today. Already well over a foot in Duluth and Two Harbors. .

It is snowing very hard at my house. Not very often we get all snow in 40-50 dbz returns around here. .

That band moving up from the south is no joke. Should be fun to watch it when it gets here. It had some thundersnow for a while down by Rochester. .

Can confirm from the middle of that MD that it is snowing pretty hard. .

Snowing pretty good here at the National Sports Center on the north side of MSP. .

I saw that. I’m really surprised none of the WFOs have issued a watch yet. .

MPX bumped up the zone area forecast for me in Anoka county up to 4-6” tonight. I’m real surprised no winter storm watches have been issued for this weekend anywhere yet. .

Willing to bet there is still snow on the ground by Easter around here in Minneapolis. .

Also, how many times have we had a white Halloween and Easter and a green Christmas? .

Weenie post of the day courtesy of the Canadian .

Looking more and more likely that our snow season gets in MSP is far from over. Guess we’ll just have to be happy to get precip in whatever form we get it. .

At this point my biggest concern is the complete lack of snow across most of central Canada. If things don’t change (and I don’t think they will) I bet the jet stream will shoot up well into Canada by the beginning of summer. .

Watching our radar tonight has been fun. Lots of banding and random forcing going on. One final big band developing right over the heart of the metro. .

One of the more unique WWA and WSW combinations I’ve ever seen. Glad I finally got under the over performing band for a change. .

60 degrees in Minnesota at the beginning of February on the GFS is not something I want to see. .

Going to the Wild game tonight. Snow is actually coming down pretty good in St Paul right now. .

Snow band seems to have hit a wall. Can’t make this crap up. I may end up with nothing. .

I should also add the models are showing a weaker low. Instead of bottoming out at 968-970 mb it’s bottoming out at 980-982 mb. .

The low moving 50-100 miles farther east than the models showed yesterday is reallf screwing us too. Instead of moving north towards the northwest part of lower Michigan it’s now forecast to move northeast towards the northeast LP. Instead of getting light snow all day tomorrow we will be lucky to get a couple of hours. .

Not sure if it’s a lack of forcing, dry air from the north, a combination, or something else, but the snow band has pretty much stopped advancing towards me. It also looks like it’s falling apart. I’d say 1-2” is a total bust for MSP after what almost all of the cams showed yesterday. I may get lucky with a couple inches on the backside but just to my northwest will probably end up with nothing after models showed upwards of 3-6” all the way into central MN. MPX mentioned in their AFD that the initial wave developed way further south than forecast which meant we didn’t get any WAA snow out of this. Our only hope is some consolation snow on the backside tonight and tomorrow. .