mnchaserguy
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Everything posted by mnchaserguy
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I guess it hailed a little bit in OKC tonight. .
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It was almost 90 on Friday… .
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If that trend keeps happening maybe we’ll end up in that 25” bullseye by tomorrow. .
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It’d be one thing if it was just one or two models but everything I’ve seen seems to be trending upwards. A lot still has to come together just right this time of year but it sure seems like we still have a shot at breaking the season record. .
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Seems like models are trending towards more snow for us. Nam is especially bullish. .
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Going from multiple days near 90 to models showing a foot of snow is rude. Going from 88 yesterday to 45 today is bad enough. Should be interesting to see if the snow pans out tomorrow.
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It’s a bummer the higher snow totals here for MSP are still so questionable. Would have been great to have a WSW while we were in the mid to upper 80s today. .
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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
mnchaserguy replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It’s going to be 80 on Wednesday. We may still have a shot at breaking our snow record a few days later. . -
We had blizzard warnings last Friday here in MSP. Looks like we have a real shot at hitting 80 degrees next Wednesday. Gotta love spring in Minnesota. .
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MSP finally hit 50 degrees today, officially breaking our streak of 126 days without hitting 50 degrees or warmer. Man it’s been a long winter. Finally feels like spring out there. .
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The main focus is obviously on the severe threat but I want to point out the cold side up here in MSP is no joke either. Blizzard warnings for the MSP metro which is really rare. 6-10” of snow, 50 mph gusts, thundersnow, and 1-2” per hour rates. Gonna be a bad night to be on the road and that’s one reason I chose not to chase down in Iowa today. Getting home would have been tough. Back to the severe weather discussion. .
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The Twin Cities have been upgraded to a blizzard warning which is quite rare for the metro. 6-10” of snow and wind gusts to 50 mph. 1-2” per hour rates tonight. The cold side of this storm is no joke either. .
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One of the more ridiculous UH maps I’ve seen. .
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Indeed. And these kinds of speeds are how you get long track tornadoes. A tornado can cover a lot of ground in 15-20+ minutes if it's moving 50-60 mph. In my experience, 50 mph is about the upper end of being able to chase. Once you get past that, it becomes extremely hard to keep up with the storm, especially if the storm isn't moving due east. It looks like storm speeds on Tuesday could be in the 55-70 mph range across a lot of the warm sector. A powerful jet streak is great until it starts cranking up the storm speeds.
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This is a hell of a set up. From a chasing perspective, the storm motions will once again be a problem with storm speeds forecast in the 50-60 knot range on the forecast soundings. They look better along the warm front in Iowa, which is where I may end up if this setup holds together like the models currently show. .
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I want to give it a shot tomorrow but I'm having a tough time with storm motions in the 50-60 knot range. Driving 3-4 hours each way to hopefully watch a storm fly by just doesn't sound all that appealing. Throw in a snowstorm on the drive home and it really doesn't sound like it's worth it coming from MSP.
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I’m not quite sure how to wrap my head around our snow potential tomorrow here in MSP. It will be a very fine line between a dumping of snow and cold rain but the picture the models are painting right now is a convective band lifting north into MSP tomorrow night right as we start getting below freezing. If that happens, we could get absolutely buried. The nam and nest have been showing this scenario for a while and the HRRR, Gfs, and Euro are all on board with only spatial differences. The 12z HRRR has a 5” per hour rate in the south metro tomorrow night. It accumulates 22” in 12 hours. That is insane. I’m not sure how to process something like that happening around here. .
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Some pretty wide ranges being thrown out by MPX. Goes to show how hard this one is going to be to predict. .
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My point and click says 4-8” Friday night. This is getting a bit ridiculous. .
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I would like to think I am going to be chasing this but at this point I don’t think it’s worth the drive from Minneapolis. If it slows down and/or shifts back north then it might be on the table for me. Right now this is a very progressive system which means fast storm motions. This is backed up by 50+ knot Bunkers right storm speeds. This will make keeping up with the storms difficult. The only area with backed winds are going to be tucked up right up on the center of the low. That really cuts down the area to work with and the window of opportunity to get a storm to produce. That being said, all it’ll take is one or two storms in that environment to go crazy. Very nice low and mid level SRH and 75 knots of effective shear. The biggest question will probably be the quality of moisture return, which the SPC mentions in their D4 outlook. .
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Gonna be a nice 40 degree day around here before more snow moves in tomorrow. It’ll probably be mostly a slop fest but MPX did issue a WSW for it so maybe there is more potential than I want to admit. .
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Chanhassen NWS is at 90.7” for the season. Unfortunately the records go off of the airport measurements and they’ve recorded significantly less than the NWS considering they’re only about 20 miles apart. Looks like the airport is sitting at 80.7”, which is still good enough for 7th snowiest. .
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I believe there was a supercell that made it all the way from Oklahoma to Michigan during this event. .
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Picked up 3”+ today. More than I expected. Looks like the snow will probably be ending here pretty quick. .
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It’s snowing pretty good here in MSP right now. .
