mnchaserguy

Trending in the wrong direction for Minneapolis. Mpx trimmed the floor from 18” to 12” and the probability of 18” has gone from 80% to 30%. .

Most CAMs are really honing in on south central and southeast MN getting the 24”+ totals. I’m guessing 18” is a lock for me with some potential of 20-22”. .

Short and medium range models are showing the same thing the long range have been showing for a week. Not sure what the problem is here. .

My point and click on the NWS website is 18-31”. Never thought I would see the day. .

18z GFS is farther south with the initial band but still managed to bump up our totals for the rest of the storm. I don’t even know how to comprehend this. .

Me too. I’m still waiting for the bottom to drop out somehow but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to. Maybe we’ll have a legit shot to break the Halloween Blizzard record. .

Our floor is 18”. My god. If this verifies it’ll be the biggest snowstorm I remember seeing first hand. And I’ve seen some big ones around here. .

I may never see a forecast like this around here again. .

Measured 2" in the driveway at about 7:30 this morning. Maybe another inch or two today.

Yeah but the Nest seems an odd one to pick to make an official forecast from, especially when none of the other models (CAMs or otherwise) support WSW criteria snow for most of the metro. Idk maybe I'm missing something but I've been following weather for a long time and I don't see what they see in the models. 4-5" looks like a pretty solid bet.

New zone area forecast for me has upped my total to 4-6" for this storm. Probably not quite enough for a WSW but on the upper end of a WWA. I'm a bit surprised to see that total get bumped up. Not sure what MPX is seeing in their models but from everything I've seen I look to be pretty solidly in the 3-4" range. If these updated totals are accurate then we should see another row or two of counties on the north side get added to the WWA and a row of counties get converted to a WSW on the south side of the Twin Cities.

And most of that water has nowhere to go since the catch basins in the streets are buried under mountains of snow from the plows. Gonna be real interesting if things freeze up quick the next couple of days.

We're too busy watching our thicc snowpack get ruined by a mid-January rain storm here in Minnesota. Not often we have p-type issues around here this time of year...

It's almost not even worth mentioning right now since we're a week out but I find it really interesting that the GEFS already has MSP at 6" for the mean snowfall for next week's storm. That's some pretty good agreement for being so far out still. Wonder if the Euro will follow the GFS or if the GFS will follow the Euro.