It’s looking like a lot of the winter storm watch may not end up seeing winter storm warning criteria snow. The NAM and Nest barely want to give us WWA level snow amounts [emoji23] this storm went to crap quickly. .
The Euro, Nam, and Nest all really want to make this almost a non-event for MSP. Maybe 2-4” for me on the north side but if this trend continues we may not even get that. CAMs should be interesting. .
If it makes anyone feel better, we will probably be paying for it soon. How much do you want to bet Minnesota will be stuck on the cold side of the warm front this spring while the rest of you get to enjoy the warm sector? Or it might just snow here until May. That’s also a possibility. .
Models are painting a big dry slot for eastern and central MN. Nam is trending back north. Should be interesting to see if the globals start trending north too. That’ll be about the only way we get any significant amounts from this system. No matter what it looks like somewhere on the north side will get really screwed by that dryslot. .
I’m not overly excited. Snow amounts are trending lower across the board. The Euro has a mid tier WWA type snowstorm. Gfs and nam are borderline warning amounts from what I’ve seen the last couple runs. .
Gfs says we have another shot at breaking the all time snowstorm record as well as the all time season record. It might just snow until summer up here at this rate. .
Looks like the Euro is trending south towards the GFS solution which would put us in the heavier snow. Still could change but it seems like the NAM is the outlier right now. FWIW the GEFS mean snow also indicates its members favor the deterministic GFS solution. .
Nam and gfs are polar opposites for MSP for Monday. Gfs gives us snow and nam gives us rain. Euro is somewhere in between. Which one will be right? Who tf knows any more. .
Looks like another decent storm to start the week next week. Nothing major but a solid WWA criteria storm the way it looks right now. A much bigger storm possible later next week. Sitting at 71.4” for the season at the airport. Need 27” to break the all time record. The models certainly want to give us a shot at that. .
Nice layer of ice this morning. Can’t even get the car back up the driveway right now. Gonna be a work from home day I think. The new pup will appreciate that. .
I’ve said it in private before but I’m convinced there is weather control happening to keep MSP operating as normal as long as possible during snowstorms and the hole around the metro saturates from south to north. I have zero data to back that up but I will gladly wear my tinfoil hat until I can be proven otherwise. It’s either that or the urban heat island affect plays a larger role for snowstorms than I realize. No matter what, there always seems to be a hole around the metro when snow moves in. .
It is. I just wish we could have spread the wealth a little more evenly on that last storm. That area got a 20” storm last winter while I got 6”. Seems to be a horseshoe floating around the south metro these days. .
There was an 8”+ difference over the course of like 10 miles. Excuse me for being slightly annoyed about that, especially when it occurs on a seemingly regular basis. .