mnchaserguy
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Everything posted by mnchaserguy
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0z GFS has bumped up its total for MSP. .
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I think the two main things to worry about is how quickly things change from rain to snow in the morning and how much of the backside of the band pivots over us tomorrow night. .
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If this pans out, it’d be cool to read a summary of how this all played out. This wasn’t even on my radar on Christmas Day, and within 24 hours it started to look like a major snowstorm could be heading our way. It’d be interesting to read from someone more knowledgeable than me how things changed that much over such a short time frame. .
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Wow. Pretty crazy how much consistency there is among so many models. .
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0z NAM ramping up even more .
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It’s crazy how quickly this thing evolved. Just a couple days ago I was talking about going ice fishing tomorrow. That won’t be happening now. .
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My wife had no idea until I mentioned it to her a couple hours ago. .
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18z hrrr is really bullish for our entire area. .
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Looks like this could be one of the bigger storms we’ve had here in MSP the last couple winters. Pretty much all of the main models show 6” or more, including the GFS and Euro which seem to be performing the best this winter. .
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Totals mostly in the 4-6” range, even to our north. I think this is mostly because ratios were around 9:1 according to MPX. If we were in the 12:1 or 15:1 range we would have seen some of those higher totals verify. I think there ended up being a much bigger lull after that initial wave than the models showed. .
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I’ve picked up a solid 4.5” in five hours. Looks like we will get a bit of a break here soon before the second band moves in and drops another inch or two. .
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Was just out for daycare pick up. Bet visibility was 1/4 to 1/2 mile at best, and there’s hardly any wind right now. It’s just snowing that hard. Sounded like some ice pellets were mixing in a bit once I got home. .
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If that’s all snow, that’s about as high of a reflectivity return for snow as you’ll ever see around here. .
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Snowing hard here in Blaine and the heavier bands keep pushing at me. Might be in a sweet spot here for a while. .
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Especially when it’s trended in the right direction for us. .
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If that dry slot on the Hrrr doesn’t end up happening then this could really get interesting. Mpx said a day or two ago that they thought the Hrrr was too aggressive in how deep it brought the low. A slightly less intense storm may actually help our snow totals with this system with less chance of a significant dry slot developing. .
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Cams and medium range models caved to the southern track the globals have been showing for a while. Should be a solid storm for most of MSP and central Minnesota. .
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12z medium range models and cams have caved to the Euro and GFS. Looks like it could be a solid storm for the northern two thirds of the MSP metro. .
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No. .
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I’m inclined to believe the GFS and euro over the cams. Seems like they’ve been better this winter. Could be a solid storm for us if the rain/snow line sets up just south of the metro. .
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Also, a pretty unique hazards map for us. .
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The clipper pattern is funny. It’s not usually much from an individual storm but they can be so frequent that they add up quick. I bet I got 2-3” today from random a random clipper this morning and a stronger narrow band of snow tonight. Then there is the hybrid one tomorrow that we somehow got a winter storm warning for. Still not convinced that’ll verify. .
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The models are trending back north for tonight. Who tf knows any more. .
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The last two times we had a significant tornado come through the metro were the EF1 that went through Minneapolis in 2011 and the Hugo EF3 in 2008. We are well overdue. Crazy thing is both of those tornadoes were overshadowed by EF5s elsewhere the same day (Joplin and Parkersburg). .
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The we got very lucky yet again here in MSP where we split the storms this afternoon. It has been a very long time since we have had a significant storm come through. Only a matter of time before that averages out. .
