mnchaserguy
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Everything posted by mnchaserguy
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I haven’t been a believer because something has just seemed off. Probably mostly the lack of better heating and narrow cape ribbons. However the RAP is screaming outbreak. If it’s correct or even somewhat close then we could be in real trouble. This is the RAP at 21z in western MN on Monday. .
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Day 3 Moderate risk for MSP. Pretty rare, especially around here. .
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Nice surprise storm in northern MSP right now. Had a surprisingly strong gust front with it. .
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Transition from rain to snow in northern MSP. White rain coming down right now. Just to my west is getting nailed by a very heavy band. .
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Grass has quickly gotten covered in snow. Roads should remain mostly ok. Big band moving in to my backyard soon. Edit. After looking at DOT cameras in the south metro it looks like the roads are getting bad quick under that heavy band moving my way.
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Just rain here too. Little bit of snow and sleet today. .
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It’s 31 degrees just to my north. Might be cold enough to freeze at my house but it’s probably coming down too hard to freeze much right now. .
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I’ll be right on the edge it looks like. Crazy how different the models have been from each other for this storm. These spring ones are so tough to forecast. .
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This was the radar signature with precip type taken into account .
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Pretty crazy temp difference across the MSP metro right now. Mid 50s in the far north metro and low 80s across the southern metro. .
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Northern LP of Michigan looks like it’s gonna get hammered by freezing rain. .
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Southwest MN will be in the low 80s tomorrow while the arrowhead will be in the 20s. Minnesota is wild in the spring. .
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With another system right behind it mid week. .
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Models flip flopping over a snowstorm here in MSP this weekend. Should be interesting to see how that plays out. .
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It’s been pretty funny to watch the trend the last couple model runs. Even southern MN is at risk of missing the worst of it if this trend continues. .
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That’s how last year was for us in MSP. Almost no snow all winter but we had a good amount at the very end of winter/early spring they made it look like an almost average year. .
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Snow total maps are almost a carbon copy IMO. .
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Models showing potential for a narrow band of double digit totals. It’s probably overdoing amounts and not taking into account melting a at the beginning after ground temps warmed up the last several days. .
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Crazy that western MN is going to hit 70 this afternoon and is under the gun for 6” of snow or more tomorrow. .
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Depending on what Cocorahs ob you want to believe, I got between 5-7”. Not bad. Just to my west got about half that. .
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It has been a very frustrating night watching the band of heavy snow hang *just* to my south and east almost all night so far. Really hoping I can cash in on it soon. .
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Ground is white and it’s really coming down, although the real heavy stuff is still to my south and east. .
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Little layer of sleet on the grass. Looks like it’s switched to snow now. Might be a little ahead of schedule for the change to snow. Probably won’t add much to our forecast amount. .
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If anyone wants a laugh, check out the Canadian output for this storm. .
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12z continues the trend. Don’t want to jinx it though by getting my hopes up. Not sure what the 12z hrrr is doing. It takes a weird deviant track with the low. .
