mnchaserguy

60 degrees in Minnesota at the beginning of February on the GFS is not something I want to see. .

Going to the Wild game tonight. Snow is actually coming down pretty good in St Paul right now. .

Snow band seems to have hit a wall. Can’t make this crap up. I may end up with nothing. .

I should also add the models are showing a weaker low. Instead of bottoming out at 968-970 mb it’s bottoming out at 980-982 mb. .

The low moving 50-100 miles farther east than the models showed yesterday is reallf screwing us too. Instead of moving north towards the northwest part of lower Michigan it’s now forecast to move northeast towards the northeast LP. Instead of getting light snow all day tomorrow we will be lucky to get a couple of hours. .

Not sure if it’s a lack of forcing, dry air from the north, a combination, or something else, but the snow band has pretty much stopped advancing towards me. It also looks like it’s falling apart. I’d say 1-2” is a total bust for MSP after what almost all of the cams showed yesterday. I may get lucky with a couple inches on the backside but just to my northwest will probably end up with nothing after models showed upwards of 3-6” all the way into central MN. MPX mentioned in their AFD that the initial wave developed way further south than forecast which meant we didn’t get any WAA snow out of this. Our only hope is some consolation snow on the backside tonight and tomorrow. .

This is gonna be a pretty epic bust here in Minneapolis. .

MPX went with a WWA for me instead of a warning. Could still end up with well over 6” of snow but it’s going to be thanks to the long duration, not high rates. Looks like we will top out at about 0.5” per hour around here. Good luck to those in the heavier bands. Looks like there should be some persistent 1-2”/hour bands closer to the low. .

There have definitely been better runs for Minneapolis but I think the 18z hrrr shares the wealth the most from what I’ve seen. I’m happy to see Chicago get their blizzard as long as it doesn’t mean we get completely missed like last week lol .

Unfortunately this storm isn’t going to dump snow on everybody. That’s just the reality. The 18z hrrr would give the majority of the sub a nice storm. .

I wish we could just agree to take what the hrrr shows right now. Chicago gets its storm, Minneapolis gets a nice dumping, Michigan gets a nice storm, and a lot of snow in between. This is about a best case scenario run for this sub. .

18z hrrr coming in south from the 12z run, which was already on a southward trend. Maybe the GFS and Euro were right again all along. If that’s the case, why are the short and medium range models so bad? Almost useless. .

MPX bumped up their snow totals to 4-6” through tomorrow night for the winter storm watch for the Twin Cities. Doesn’t seem like they’re buying into the additional snow on Saturday yet. .

Gfs stays south on the 12z. Still gives Minneapolis some snow on Saturday. No matter what it looks like we’ll get some decent snow. Just depends on how much. .

Looks like pretty much all the CAMs have the nw track. Only the long range globals are holding on to the se track. A few years ago clinging to the euro might’ve made sense but it is not the king model it used to be. Having said that I probably just jinxed Minneapolis out of any snow. .

Little band of snow over the Twin Cities just blew up on reflectivity into a full on snow band. Must be some better forcing working its way towards us. Might end up with a little surprise if this holds up for a while. .

Even last year the north side got the short end of a lot of the storms. If the NWS got over 100”, the airport got 90”, I bet we got 80-85”. Still a lot, but it always amazes me how much of a difference those 10-20 miles across the metro can make for snowstorms. .

Stuck in a dry pocket on the north side. Sometimes I really hate that I care… .

I’d honestly be happy if we squeaked out a few inches from this after it looked like a complete miss for us. .

Yep, we had an inch or two on Halloween too. Not often we get a white Halloween and brown (or green) thanksgiving and Christmas. .

Looks like we’ll end up with more rain on Christmas than we did in May and June combined. .

Yup. It was fun while it lasted. .

Euro has picked up on it too, although not quite as drastic. .

Tried posting a pic but it’s not working. It’s snowing again in MSP. It’s not much but it’s sticking in the grass in the yard. Officially over this crap.

It doesn’t get much more classic than this earlier tonight. .