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February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, Harry said:

I am here to get a south trend started. I hope.. Ofcourse I wouldn't mind getting deep into the warm sector either.  

You really want to lose power?  I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96.  Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94.  I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet.  I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing.  Good luck.☹️

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9 minutes ago, frostfern said:

You really want to lose power?  I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96.  Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94.  I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet.  I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing.  Good luck.☹️

 

Oh I certainly won't mind getting into the all rain zone. Having been around long enough I have seen sytems like this before take a decent shift in both directions inside of 48hrs. Much depends on where that front ends up, strength of high to north and how strong the first low is. With this we may not know till the 12z runs tomorrow as far as what kind of trend/adjustment we get. I suspect we will. Always do with these set ups. 

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5 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Minneapolis officially received 1.7” of snow with the clipper this morning. Not sure if the NWS will include that in the official storm total. 

I wouldn't.  There's a large break and it's not related to the upcoming system.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If nothing goes wrong, Minneapolis could receive more snow in this storm than anybody not in a lake effect zone south of ~42N has gotten all winter.

FGEN band ends up way south like the GFS is showing and then somehow we get dry slotted or miss out on all the mesoscale features is the only way I see us not hitting totals well over 12”

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39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If nothing goes wrong, Minneapolis could receive more snow in this storm than anybody not in a lake effect zone south of ~42N has gotten all winter.

That graphic that showed a 90% chance at 18" there kind of cracked me up.  A 90% chance at a 4" for northern IL would be like winning the lottery at this point lol.

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

36 degrees and 1-2” of rain is just about as miserable as it can get eh 

Fwiw, I'm still running the stats on calendar days with highs in the 30s, 1"+ precip with less than 1" of snow in Chicago.  Working backwards and found there were no such days in the 1990s.  So it's only happened 3 times between 1990 and present.

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Last Thursday at approximately 4:30, it was 29/30° With moderate FZRA, and it was freezing quickly on contact. Fortunately it only lasted about 45 minutes to an hour but turned everything into ice for the evening and the glaze stuck to the trees (could hear the crunching on the wind). My immediate thought was, “enough of this.” A week later I see that could’ve just been the appetizer. One hope is that most of the QPF will fall earlier in the day as plain rain prior the temps slipping just under that point of instant accretion during the late afternoon/evening as precip wanes.

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7 hours ago, WaryWarren said:

My point and click has 18 inches total. fml!

Are you really complaining about 18in? Lol. I haven't even got winter storm warning criteria this winter. Will gladly trade you. I would do anything to experience a storm like what Minneapolis is about to get. Truly incredible and rare event. 

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