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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Snow/Sleet/Misery Obs & Disco


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23 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I may have looked at the latest RAP...(desperate times). Looks like it gets about 0.08" into DC...but temps are so marginal..maybe I can get a shrub topper

Trash can lid pics are my hopes and dreams

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37 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is 100% true but it won't stop me from analyzing every 15m interval on the HRRR.

Don't look now but the 20z is substantially jucier into VA. 





Good rule of thumb for DC is precip advancing from w-sw must make it into at least central KY and then it doesn’t get shunted south here. 

it looks like it’s trying to do that but not emphatically 

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36° and misting NW of Staunton

I have been watching this minor threat like a hawk for days now because even when it wasn’t showing anything for most of the subforum, the models kept keying on Augusta County for a mini jack.

Super glad to see the Euro and NAMs jump aboard today and the trend towards a norther and more expansive precip field so that the majority of the sub hopefully sees at least some snow.  We got this!

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Agreed. It’s nearly identical. If anything, MAYBE a smidge more moisture than the radar shows but barely. Last run was also very close, but had a TINY bit less moisture than the radar was indicating. Perhaps a difference of virga? Not sure. But I’d call it pretty spot on overall.


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8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

It’s also showing hour 0.5 on HRRR versus the current radar. 30 min difference, so the systems a bit further east on the HRRR? Not emoji817.png on that though


well it was initialized at 21z and the time i posted it was at 21.50z so i had to skip to hour 0.5

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