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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Snow/Sleet/Misery Obs & Disco


NorthArlington101
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9 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

At 25 the NAM is substantially wetter and broader In TX

30 definitely more moisture slinging north

I guess its better than the previous run..but the it just seems to dry out over the mountains.  maybe some mood flakes which I would gladly take

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15 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

At 25 the NAM is substantially wetter and broader In TX

30 definitely more moisture slinging north

3k is a little better. Seems to be because the coastal gets going a little sooner/stronger. Not sure that's how we'd win around DC/Balt but it that was a real trend at some point it could spell well for the southern parts of the subforum - couple models have had a "victory" stripe of 1" or so down there.

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11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is a little better. Seems to be because the coastal gets going a little sooner/stronger. Not sure that's how we'd win around DC/Balt but it that was a real trend at some point it could spell well for the southern parts of the subforum - couple models have had a "victory" stripe of 1" or so down there.

"Victory stripe.." love that! LOL!

 

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29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is a little better. Seems to be because the coastal gets going a little sooner/stronger. Not sure that's how we'd win around DC/Balt but it that was a real trend at some point it could spell well for the southern parts of the subforum - couple models have had a "victory" stripe of 1" or so down there.

Definitely not there yet but marked improvement with the low

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I’d argue that there are more hits on the GEFS than at 12z. The problem is that this can fail multiple ways. Temps, a poor track, or possible lack of moisture if energy gets eaten up by the Apps. Other models which show lackluster solutions have one or more of these scenarios playing out. Really hope we can thread the needle and at least get a wintry scene across the CWA


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  • NorthArlington101 changed the title to Jan 31 - Feb 1 Snow/Sleet/Misery Obs & Disco
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