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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!


Go Kart Mozart
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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS says coldest of the season but not so unusual for the coldest of the season.  IOW-not historic.  We'll see.

Waiting this out before claiming victory but .. I don't personally have a problem with the event correcting that way as it nears.  I mentioned this a couple of times; there's precedence for models over doing these kind of quick shot cold incursions.  They are more frequently oversold ...even needing to get inside of day 5's before they start modulating down by some amount, be it 10   20 or even 30%. 

Eventually ...one comes along and gets us.  I think 2016 may have pulled down a 95th percentile of whatever the d-drip awe looked like... ha.  I mean, these models don't put out solutions that are IMpossible - they wouldn't be much use as geophysical tools if they did.  My hesitation on the current theme is/was purely related to the majority cases, though. For whatever reason, in the past these kind of 'continental tuck' events have been too aggressive. 

Anyway, I want this at < 72 hours.. so we're nearing that deadline.  We may have in fact already corrected this as much as it will - unknown.

 

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

850mb is actually a bit colder for at least Brian and my area.  Even so the min's are a bit warmer than 6Z temps.  Is that a function of the wind staying up Friday night?  

It’s probably a function of what oceanstwx was saying earlier . Models may struggle a several days out realizing temps won’t fall much with strong CAA overnite Friday . Now they are realizing temps won’t drop much overnite where winds stay up a bit 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I just meant the warm season in general.  I might go through a couple more gallons of heating oil on Saturday than normal, but overall, my energy use has been less.

Sports betting is now legal in Mass!  Might have to do a few parlays to cover Saturday

When I looked last week every CT station had record low heating degrees days for January. 

Here is BDL. 

 

chart.jpeg

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17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe we can get some of the rad pits to decouple before sunrise Saturday.

It won't be -20⁰ here, but I am a bit worried about my radiating pit....my peach trees have some interesting looking buds for January. Might have to start knitting some gloves for them....lost all of them last year because of the late season freeze. I refuse to lose them 2 years in a row...

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It's going to be interesting to see how the power grid handles this cold shot.  That one in December caused all kinds of issues. I think I remember reading something like 40 million gallons of fuel oil had to be used during that cold snap in New England. With diesel over $5 the costs are astronomical.

Screen-Shot-2022-12-30-at-8_46.25-AM.thumb.png.9ddaa8ee250209c3b9ba9858460ef972.png

Screen-Shot-2022-12-29-at-2_09.01-PM.thumb.png.efd292dcf55b70f3ed749129d13ba29e.png

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56 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

That was it!  We used to go with a group of 30 guys, the guy who arranged the trip owns Dalene Flooring in CT. We were prepared for the cold so it didn't bother us however a couple sleds needed help to start on morning. A little use of the leatherman allowed us to "Borrow" the hair dryer in one of the bathrooms at a motel to warm their engines :lol: Cleaning staff shared their extension cord lol. I wish I could remember where, one night we stayed at this huge log cabin like hotel up in the middle of nowhere. I think it may have been in the Jonquiere area?

not sure, but we stayed at the Holiday Inn in "downtown" Jonquiere. That was at the height of the truck/trailer/sled theft debacle that was going on in QC at the time, and the HI had a gated/fenced in pool area to park sleds. there were several actually parked IN the pool-there was a lot of snow that year.

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You can toss that CON -50F. Bad ob.

network NH_ASOS zstation CON month all var min_feel _r t dpi 100.png

 

CON,1976-01-20 03:00,KCON 200300Z 05004KT 7SM CLR M26/M29 A3042 RMK SLP315 T12611294 57015
CON,1976-01-20 04:00,KCON 200400Z 00000KT 7SM CLR M24/M27 A3040 RMK SLP308 T12431271
CON,1976-01-20 05:00,KCON 200500Z 04040KT 7SM SCT100 M25/M27 A3037 RMK SLP298 T12551271
CON,1976-01-20 06:00,KCON 200600Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M23/M26 A3032 RMK SLP278 8/030 T12331261 57034
CON,1976-01-20 07:00,KCON 200700Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M22/M24 A3029 RMK SLP268 T12211243

Should be 04kt...not 40kt. lol

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a dumb record. Not to mention Wind chill values were adjusted to account for new metrics for wind chill. 

 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can toss that CON -50F. Bad ob.

network NH_ASOS zstation CON month all var min_feel _r t dpi 100.png

 

CON,1976-01-20 03:00,KCON 200300Z 05004KT 7SM CLR M26/M29 A3042 RMK SLP315 T12611294 57015
CON,1976-01-20 04:00,KCON 200400Z 00000KT 7SM CLR M24/M27 A3040 RMK SLP308 T12431271
CON,1976-01-20 05:00,KCON 200500Z 04040KT 7SM SCT100 M25/M27 A3037 RMK SLP298 T12551271
CON,1976-01-20 06:00,KCON 200600Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M23/M26 A3032 RMK SLP278 8/030 T12331261 57034
CON,1976-01-20 07:00,KCON 200700Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M22/M24 A3029 RMK SLP268 T12211243

Should be 04kt...not 40kt. lol

This is why I come here :lol: 

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16 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Hummm,

Whiteface earned the nickname Iceface for a reason. New York winters can be brutally cold, we’re talking colder than Antarctica, cold. During a cold spell in 2016, the summit of New York’s fifth-highest mountain once reached -114℉ with wind chill.

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/blogs/vote-up/2016/02/15/youre-cold--114-summit-ny-mountain/80406860/

Old scale.  Though -84 on the current scale is awesome anyway.   The -34/35mph at our Fort Kent home at sunrise on Jan 18, 1982 was -101 on the old, -72 on the new.  The -29/40mph at 9 the previous evening felt even worse.

worst part of the 94 cold snap was it flipped warm. -25 at dinner to rain the next day and 40s then back below zero.

Allagash went from -45 early on 1/27 up to 44 about 48 hours later.  Brain-cracking numbers for CAR below:

Jan 26   -13   -32    0      0    5th coldest max and tied for 2nd coldest mean.
Jan 27      5   -23     0      0
Jan 28    45    -1    0.69   3.3
Jan 29    43    -3   0.30   0
Jan 30     -2   -20    0      0
 

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