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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!


Go Kart Mozart
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1 minute ago, tunafish said:

@dendrite are you putting stuff on the chooks combs Friday?  First time mine will experience this kind of cold, even in the coop (which I doubt they leave for other than food on Friday).

Nah…they’re fine. Be careful with vasoline on the combs because it can trap moisture and make them even more prone to frostbite.

It should be a mixed/dry airmass for us so I think they’ll handle the cold fine. I’ve had birds with large combs that took a little bit of frostbite the first couple years, but they were fine. It made their combs stay smaller for future cold shots. 

As long as they’re dry and protected from the wind they’ll be okay.

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50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nah…they’re fine. Be careful with vasoline on the combs because it can trap moisture and make them even more prone to frostbite.

It should be a mixed/dry airmass for us so I think they’ll handle the cold fine. I’ve had birds with large combs that took a little bit of frostbite the first couple years, but they were fine. It made their combs stay smaller for future cold shots. 

As long as they’re dry and protected from the wind they’ll be okay.

Didn't know that it can harm.  Thanks.  Ridge vent is open for ventilation, otherwise they're protected.  Shouldnt be too breezy there.

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3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Didn't know that it can harm.  Thanks.  Ridge vent is open for ventilation, otherwise they're protected.  Shouldnt be too breezy there.

I always start second guessing when we get -10s or in a situation like this when we have a threat for temps they haven’t experienced before. But people keep chickens in far NNE, the upper plains, and AK just fine with -30s and -40s as long as they’re dry and sheltered. Trust me, they won’t enjoy this, but they adapt. In that long stretch of extreme cold in late Dec 17 into Jan 18 they got to a point where they were doing stuff in the run like normal even with single digit highs. This is a little more abrupt, but they can easily handle it. IIRC you have all cold hardy breeds. The bigger problem is heating the coop and then losing power and they quickly drop from 50° to below 0°.

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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I always start second guessing when we get -10s or in a situation like this when we have a threat for temps they haven’t experienced before. But people keep chickens in far NNE, the upper plains, and AK just fine with -30s and -40s as long as they’re dry and sheltered. Trust me, they won’t enjoy this, but they adapt. In that long stretch of extreme cold in late Dec 17 into Jan 18 they got to a point where they were doing stuff in the run like normal even with single digit highs. This is a little more abrupt, but they can easily handle it. IIRC you have all cold hardy breeds. The bigger problem is heating the coop and then losing power and they quickly drop from 50° to below 0°.

Very true.  I have buff and lavender orpingtons, def cold hardy...but I haven't even touched single digits this year so they're in for a shock at first.  I think I'd put them in my garage before a heating lamp, too risky for fires.

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7 hours ago, tamarack said:

I planted a Reliance peach within days of moving to my present location in mid-May 1998.  For its first 3 year it would triple in size then bottom-of-winter temps of -24 or -25 would kill the top half, followed by super growth (but no blossoms) the next summer.  Winter 2001-02 never dropped below -12, there was no dieback and we picked 100+ sweet fruit of about tennis ball size in August.  Jan-Feb-Mar 2003 included 12 days with minima between -20 and -29, a few of those with significant wind, and the tree was essentially dead.  A small sprout appeared from below the graft in summer '03 but all was still after 03-04 (Jan 04 would've killed the tree just as thoroughly as winter 02-03.  I just said thank you Lord for giving me one crop before demonstrating that our frost-pocket microclimate was too cold (on the cusp between 4A and 4B) for peaches.  Median for winter's coldest is -25 and we may approach that Saturday morning, maybe Sunday as well but without the breeze.

I just planted a Redhaven this past spring, so this is the first winter. I think it's well sited. I don't radiate all that well being on a hillside, it's got a windbreak to the northwest and west from the natural vegetation, and it's right next to a slope on the west side that really prevents severe reflection off the snowpack. I flirt with 6A, so I should be fine, but I don't want to disappoint the kids like when the flew off with our first blueberry crop.

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Does this event come in with some decent squalls?

&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

However, the main story will be likely snow squall activity associated with the powerful Arctic front attached to the low pressure area. The good news with this feature is that it looks to move through rapidly during the early morning hours, which should slightly dampen instability/snow intensity, but more importantly, reduce impacts to travel given limited traffic. Based on the timing, best chance for higher impacts are across northern tier of New York and far northwestern Vermont, where snow showers and squalls may arrive in the evening with better instability to work with. However, would expect an organized snow squall to traverse much if not all of our region through the night, in addition to scattered snow showers during the evening. Have gone ahead to increase PoPs to likely or categorical (60-90%) Thursday night in much of the region, considering the strong signals. Also added in snow shower, heavy at times, wording to emphasize the potential heavy snowfall rates with the snow showers. A well-defined pressure rise and fall couplet, large amounts of low level frontogenesis and accompanying instability driven by steep lapse rates. What looks to keep this from being a high-end snow squall scenario is a somewhat limited mixing depth and associated winds, and temperatures at the onset should be cold enough to prevent a flash freeze scenario.

&&

8EE39F02-2C8B-46E8-8D45-510EBA22D3A3.thumb.png.c8f6650496a5e8d4503b472745cca106.png

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

00z NAM looked colder than 18z EURO at 850 it seemed for 12z SAT.  Guess it depends if we can radiate out.

06B7709D-F857-4F63-BD0E-0187B943A05C.thumb.png.82b899ad22131ac6ded31ea33212e005.png

6ECC4968-ED85-4847-A455-34BA4A74C1AA.thumb.png.5ef4abfb68ccdfd642cf10f0a304bc95.png

Euro looked colder at 925 than the nam. So the euro is drilling this in a little lower and more SW than the other models. 

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36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro looked colder at 925 than the nam. So the euro is drilling this in a little lower and more SW than the other models. 

 

40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

00z GFS very cold with -20s and even -30s just north of the border.  Must be radiating nicely.

1C83B75D-97CD-42C5-80F7-C23A6B17E211.thumb.png.5c1f5323569ca6aa70f68d3e33d93753.png

Euros 850s are colder 6 hrs earlier more radiation at optimum time

index (2).png

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Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Greenfield, Orange, Framingham, Lowell,
Lawrence, Gloucester, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford,
Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy,
Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford,
Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Foster,
Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich,
Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly,
and Newport
311 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as
  low as 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern,
  northeastern, southeastern and western Massachusetts and
  northern and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the dangerously low wind
  chills, strong northwest winds may cause power outages Friday
  afternoon and evening.
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38 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Greenfield, Orange, Framingham, Lowell,
Lawrence, Gloucester, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford,
Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy,
Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford,
Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Foster,
Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich,
Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly,
and Newport
311 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as
  low as 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern,
  northeastern, southeastern and western Massachusetts and
  northern and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the dangerously low wind
  chills, strong northwest winds may cause power outages Friday
  afternoon and evening.

Please stay safe 

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