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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Have a feeling Feb isn’t gonna go the way of futility. 

I'd want to see a huge pig over AK to really think about futility for a month when it's only Feb 3rd....seeing that EPO ridge just makes me think there's a decent chance something gets timed for some snow....even if its a front ender, etc....it's hard to get skunked in February.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd want to see a huge pig over AK to really think about futility for a month when it's only Feb 3rd....seeing that EPO ridge just makes me think there's a decent chance something gets timed for some snow....even if its a front ender, etc....it's hard to get skunked in February.

I think that's the point we've tried to drive across, but the emotions are getting to people. 

I get it, this winter has seemed to find a way to eff all of us. But it's hard to just write off the month given that look. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that's the point we've tried to drive across, but the emotions are getting to people. 

I get it, this winter has seemed to find a way to eff all of us. But it's hard to just write off the month given that look. 

We had good looks other months we wrote Dec and Jan off 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had good looks other months we wrote Dec and Jan off 

And yet, you'd still lose your bet if we got snow like Dec and Jan. Difference between generally shitty winter wx and getting completely skunked. It's hard to get skunked at 1000 feet in interior New England.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think anybody is going big BTW. 

I would never go with futility in ORH on Feb 1 unless I had some odds adjusted to the wager . They can get a front end 4” on a cutter that leaves with bare ground and no futility or some elevation fart in late March where nobody else gets much . There reporting station is not really representative of downtown . The airport is in weenieville. 

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While persistence has merit and can be tough to snap sometimes, the past is not indicative of the future. Dec and Jan were vastly different too so while the sensible weather for SOP has been the same, how we got it was not…which is one reason why I can’t roll DJ forward to Feb. 

If Feb skunks us then I’ll just toss everything out the window moving forward and order a flock of geese from the vatican.com.

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think it’s very difficult to have back to back months of it. Will would know the data but I find it hard to imagine we have ever gone below 2” in Jan and Feb. 

Ya it is very hard to do . We came close 19/20 here 4” total both Jan and Feb combined.  I bet this month is warm but wouldn’t be surprised to get a good storm after mid month, it’s hard to keep on running bad luck.  

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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya it is very hard to do . We came close 19/20 here 4” total both Jan and Feb combined.  I bet this month is warm but wouldn’t be surprised to get a good storm after mid month, it’s hard to keep on running bad luck.  

I think that was the winter where we got a nice storm in mid Novie and another one on like March 10th or something with almost nothing in between…?

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think that was the winter where we got a nice storm in mid Novie and another one on like March 10th or something with almost nothing in between…?

No that was 2018-19.....2019-20 was the biggie in early December (mostly to your north but you did get some in that) and then mostly dogshit the rest of the way. There were a couple smaller events in December after tha early month storm.

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd want to see a huge pig over AK to really think about futility for a month when it's only Feb 3rd....seeing that EPO ridge just makes me think there's a decent chance something gets timed for some snow....even if its a front ender, etc....it's hard to get skunked in February.

Only happened 3 times since we moved to Maine 50 years ago.  Fort Kent in 1978 (only 2" from the KU) and Gardiner in 1987 came when a bunch of strong storms was followed by an extended period with no storms.  The 3rd one was in 2006 when only 7.8" fell after Jan 31.

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

MJO phase 8 by late February?

image.png.e50124d0b1dbb64817ea751415c69601.png

 

Unlikely.   In so far as attempting to predict the MJO wave behavior alone, it is more likely it migrates around spaces 3-6 as a low to medium amplitude propagation, then terminates (ultimately...) along the 7/8 boundary. Probably also after the few days just prior to, try to sell it actually moving through 8. 

I'm just basing that on two primary methods: 

One, seasonal persistence to die and end up winding into oblivion inside the RMM N/S region, after models seem convincing it it will finally succeed in propagating through 8 - never actually doing so... (duping optimists).                                           ALL THE TIME.  

The other reason, is the reason why that has been the case.  The Pacific basin has been in robustly coupled state with the La Nina much of the way this season - so far...  The only time it was not, back in Dec ... there wasn't any waves ejecting out of the Marine sub-continent to take advantage...  Such that the total wave behavior this season so far is seemingly incapable of ever getting through 8-1-2 successfully...  

Perhaps this all breaks down over the next 3 weeks and we find ourselves in a new paradigm that allows that to happen?  could be  - who knows.  But it's tough to go against persistence when present state is more coupled than not ( which is a destructive interference regime), and that state has proven impenetrable all season.    

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15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Just keep in mind that those RMM plots are very noisy

 

It probably will fail to make it much into 8-1-2....as Don S said the other day in the NYC forum this is currently the strongest MJO of the winter but that said it does now appear that yet again the GEFS is gonna overestimate it and the EPS will be closer to reality, or even too strong itself...that has been the theme all winter really...moderate waves in 3-4-5-6 have been weak and weak waves into 8-1-2 were nonexistent basically.

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