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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need it bc January was a bad miss.

Do you think it’s possible that the window you anticipated would happen in Jan before a break and then big finish happens towards mid Feb instead before the polar vortex stuff takes over and gives us the big March? 

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6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Things are trending more favorably with the polar vortex. Not a guarantee and I would still say the odds are against us making up enough ground to end up above average snow for the winter. However, things look a lot better than they did even a week ago. It doesn’t happen every year, but in our snowy seasons we go on a run at some point with storm after storm. 2017-2018 was a 4 week run in March, 2010-2011 was a 4 week run from late Dec to late Jan, and 2014-2015 was a 4 week run from late Jan to late Feb. Most years that doesn’t happen, but when it does we make up for lost ground fast. 

All I need is enough to get back to climo for verification and I saw a clown Euro weekly map yesterday that did just that...30-40" region wide over 42 days.

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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Do you think it’s possible that the window you anticipated would happen in Jan before a break and then big finish happens towards mid Feb instead before the polar vortex stuff takes over and gives us the big March? 

Well, the January as I had portrayed was a miss. The blocking never redeveloped. However, we could still get lucky in Feb with a better source region as a segue into a nice March. I hinted at such an outcome in my last blog, even though it headlined a "Mild February".

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Do you think it’s possible that the window you anticipated would happen in Jan before a break and then big finish happens towards mid Feb instead before the polar vortex stuff takes over and gives us the big March? 

There is no guarantee of anything with the SPV, @coastalwx is right it’s voodoo and even if a SSW happens there’s no guarantee what it does
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the January as I had portrayed was a miss. The blocking never redeveloped. However, we could still get lucky in Feb with a better source region as a segue into a nice March. I hinted at such an outcome in my last blog, even though it headlined a "Mild February".

I’m expecting a wintry end to the season and I’ll go down with the ship if the geese continue to shat on me. 

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hahaha... let's not get carried away..   but I like the vibe

Yeah I’ve been joking around about it with Scott and Ray. The Ashland coop near me had 72.5” after February 18th that season after limping to about 23” up to that point. Talk about a big turnaround…lol. 
 

But all honesty, I do think that semi-colder look has been been advertised at least somewhat for a while…that EPO ridge never really went away…it ebbed and flowed a bit but having it there always gave the milder mid-month pattern a temporary feel to it. I do think there will be some winter storm threats late month into early March. But a bunch of crappy close calls and other variables that prevent snow wouldn’t surprise me this winter. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’ve been joking around about it with Scott and Ray. The Ashland coop near me had 72.5” after February 18th that season after limping to about 23” up to that point. Talk about a big turnaround…lol. 
 

But all honesty, I do think that semi-colder look has been been advertised at least somewhat for a while…that EPO ridge never really went away…it ebbed and flowed a bit but having it there always gave the milder mid-month pattern a temporary feel to it. I do think there will be some winter storm threats late month into early March. But a bunch of crappy close calls and other variables that prevent snow wouldn’t surprise me this winter. 

How about interior?  Route 2 N MA VT NH?

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51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

WTF??  What a stupid statement. We haven’t had blocking in years here, and have had some monsters the last decade. 
 

Then this December we had monster blocking and got skunked. Lol. 

he is from Rockland County, whereever that is-not in NE. he knows not of which he speaks.

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