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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, FXWX said:

It has been stated a few times already, but it was just a constant mild day after mild day setup.  Nothing excessively warm, but always above normal.  Many Januarys feature a thaw period with max temps that beat anything we saw this past January.  BDL has a top January 2023 temp of 56... Most good old fashioned January thaws would beat that...

It was kind of a warmer version of January 2021 in that sense...no excessive warmth, but just incessantly above average.

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While there’s not much going on, just wanted to share this. I have a feeling many of you have seen / are familiar with this already, but in case some aren’t. It covers a lot of the really wild east coast winters extending from the mid LIA to late 1800’s. There’s a fair bit about NE too. 
 

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf

I mean yeah, I guess maybe this would be depressing given the state of this winter for most, but it’s still a pretty fun read. 

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1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Overnight mins have been the story for several winters now... Used to be very common to fall into low to mid teens years ago... Now it's a challenge for consistent overnight lows in the teens across SNE...

It's actually true in the summers, too.   In fact ( for me personally -) I was only considering that a summer phenomenon until last week when I was reviewing the monthlies at NWS.  

It seems to be yearly observation and seasonally independent.  Fascinating -

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

8 beers and a microphone ?

 

I'm telling you, I really feel we're going to get something, but it's going to be a surprise. It's not going to be something that's going to show up on the long range, it's going to be something that's going to pop up within four to five days maximum. Maximum. Just how the season has been. I'm not waiting for it but I feel like that will happen

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4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm telling you, I really feel we're going to get something, but it's going to be a surprise. It's not going to be something that's going to show up on the long range, it's going to be something that's going to pop up within four to five days maximum. Maximum. Just how the season has been. I'm not waiting for it but I feel like that will happen

All those gummies he’ll have to buy and drive it to Moosup. I’m afraid he’ll have a seizure just walking into a dispensary though. 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's actually true in the summers, too.   In fact ( for me personally -) I was only considering that a summer phenomenon until last week when I was reviewing the monthlies at NWS.  

It seems to be yearly observation and seasonally independent.  Fascinating -

Actually, many of my heating fuel clients watch those numbers (wintertime mins) with far more interest than they do daily maxes.  They see the trend!  

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All those gummies he’ll have to buy and drive it to Moosup. I’m afraid he’ll have a seizure just walking into a dispensary though. 

I am supremely confident on my stance and bet. This is the winter of absolute extremes. Both temperature anomalies  and snowfall. How can there be any arguments with that? 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am supremely confident on my stance and bet. This is the winter of absolute extremes. Both temperature anomalies  and snowfall. How can there be any arguments with that? 

I mean I get it for sure. You have 60 days though to keep it under 4 inches correct? It is a big balls bet though considering the odds are against you from a statistical standpoint. Then again, I also thought we would break out of this by now and we haven’t so… 

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Seems the models are hinting are more of a general period that may last 4 days ... couple of events nested inside, spread out over gray days in between. 

18z GFS looked like cold solutions for us, with options for mixy/ice and or snow.   Previous runs were quite a bit NW ...

I don't actually have a problem with the NW solution set, though. The NAO being positive favors that storm track... so, I'm not willing to trust these eye candy cycles like this one until maybe 8 days from now.  haha

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