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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He completely disrobes for those. 

They’ve been pretty good as they don’t get caught in the emotional run to run swings.  They’ve had a bit of a signal Friday Saturday for cne nne and even a bit of sne.  
i try to avoid the metal chairs; not sure what Swinging in Tolland was thinking.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t mind the ensemble look for a week out.

EPS was the most use for winter enthusiasts...

GEFs and GEPs, ... not so much.   And of these two, the GEPs vs the EPS may as well be modeling a different year - 0 likeness within the Lakes - M/A - NE triangulum.   None as far as I can see.  

Longer op ed ... That, in itself, is unusually highly dispersed even considering it is a cross guidance comparison.   They don't "have to" be the same, and typically there'll be some variance, but at D7 ...the weight of the entire ensemble cluster of each "tends" to at least present that they are f'ing modeling on the same planet when it comes to that range.   

But this...

image.png.689e106f97c32b34469f4c345a93a414.png

 

...is definitely a bit unusual for an entire modeling system comparison to be that diametric.  I'm sure it's happened before, but as someone who is fairly diligent in checking/comparing all three, GEFs, GEPs, and EPS... I can say with confidence this is pushing it.  

The GEFs is just about exactly between these extremes.

Anyway, enough of that... The bottom line, this is a scenario next week plagued by two issues, simultaneously:  

1 .. Difficult trough handling due to varying degrees of model-self-imposed destructive interference; we can see that with the lead wave vs the aft wave. The Euro cluster puts more mechanically conserved weight on the aft. At the other ends... the GEPs put almost none there, and uses the front side wave almost entirely.  Again, the GEFs really looks evenly split.  

2 .. I suspect pattern change is also throwing a non-linear ( unseen) disruption with model performance.  Folks may not like it - or if they are human, they may even have breached the ''nough is a 'nough' threshold and may even embrace it. I don't know...but all this could go away after this particular threat if the long term global scaled telecons drop the other shoe.  That "might" be trying to assert as we head through the next 7 days...  It's like trying to finish a building when the scaffolding is changing.

In practical terms... the EPS has a better performance record in the late mid/early extended range.  Don't quote that.. it is just based on my anecdotal observation in comparing over the years when needed.   It's not a hugely better, but edges. The above solution variance ...heh, just a weee bit more than edging difference, though. That's going to be an interesting contest this time.  Not sure with the GEFs vs, any longer, as NCEP is "ensemble" ( puns are free!) line releasing new versions of the deterministic, it seems, every 18 months. I don't know if that effects any of the individual members? I don't think so - don't see why they'd need to do that. At a 101 perspective, the intent there is to offer dispersed solutions.  Anyway,  I wanna say the GEFs may be edging the EPS a little more these days, anyway, jjust because I know first hand that the GEFs went west with the Buffalo Bomb back in Dec before the EPS did. That was kind of an important specter to f-up, huh. It's like remembering a really amazing tasting meal ... except for that fly's wing you found in the sauce. You don't tend forgot such details ...  

The 12z to 00z EPS was a solid trend in the right direction, with spatial (location) showing exceptional continuity between those two cycles. Also, while deepening ( in the means) the surface pressure.  That's like powdered 'construction of coastal', just add water ( ...well, "snow" would be preferred).   But as you can see above ...it is situating the low in the climate wheel-house for much of the area.   The only draw down in this illustration is that the 850 mb is challenged for cold air... that pesky metric at this range/product typically used.  The 00z run/mean cuts the 0c isotherm from just N of HFD to just S of BOS ..with +1 over N CT/RI SE zones... and -1 up to the NH border.  That's a marginal atmosphere by definition - weak thermal gradient + or - 0C

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

From what I’ve seen and heard, it fades going into the western pacific. The forcing really looks like a non-factor.

This is not researched by me...but it seems like the Aussies have had the best handle on MJO this winter.  They have it circling the drain just slightly on the good side of the COD.  At least the MJO state should not be an inhibitor as we move later into February.  My target date for the blizzard of 23 remains 2/28.

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