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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Next weekends storm is most likely done. 

 

The models had the first storm weaker and much further east which would drag the trough east to make room for the 2nd storm to come up the storm. 

 

Now the models are showing the 1st storm stronger and much further west which is bad for the 2nd storm.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So nailing the former has a greater impact than nailing the latter. 
 

I wasn’t debating whether or not -10F in EMA has a greater impact than 6-12”. 

You have no idea on impact.  The biggest population center of New England (with a large homeless census) had under forecasted cold which resulted in a huge human and economic impact.  0 in EMA happens a lot.  -10 once a generation. If you read the cold thread you’d see the impact.   Snow rarely causes the misery cold does because it occurs ironically in moderately cold conditions.  When that is an exception the impact is enormous (see Buffalo).  Snow is almost always forecasted with enough time for the population to react.   It’s almost never much of a problem 36 hours after it stops snowing.

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It should probably be in top 5 for ORH too but I’ve always been skeptical of their identical 10.1” measurements at exactly 10 to 1 QPF for both Feb 6 and 7 1978. Also observed snow depth went from 10” to 30” exactly matching the “storm total”. This tells me it was estimated after the storm ended. All of the evidence I’ve seen points me to about 26-28” at ORH in that storm. 

But unfortunately that’s what goes into the climate record. 

I didn't see this before I posted below. There's many accounts of +- 2 feet in '78 in areas of western CT and yet all the official measurements seem low. 

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57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

February 2021 was good in that area but it’s sandwiched between lots of clunkers 

Yeah I knew Feb 2021 was epic in NNJ but theyve been undersold badly outside of that month for a while. They are due for one of those stretches. 

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GFS looks whacky.  The first storm heads through Detroit towards Buffalo, while the second forms over Davenport?  I suppose there is a jet entrance there, but we have a ways to go before we throw in the towel.  I would think a development much further to the south is possible.  At least we have a Rockies Ridge and eastern trough going for us.

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20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. its been 0-1 down here all winter and we have .4 to show for it lol

Difference is he needs ORH to get less than 4 inches for the rest of the entire winter to win an even money bet. He seems to not be aware that even in a horrific january pattern, they got over a foot. He keeps saying “the pattern will just continue to suck”….well yeah, that could totally be true but it still doesn’t mean you bet money it won’t snow again at 1000 feet over the interior…lol. 
 

Its not good pattern over the next 10-15 days but it could easily still snow a few inches. I also think there’s going to be a more favorable pattern later this month. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Difference is he needs ORH to get less than 4 inches for the rest of the entire winter to win an even money bet. He seems to not be aware that even in a horrific january pattern, they got over a foot. He keeps saying “the pattern will just continue to suck”….well yeah, that could totally be true but it still doesn’t mean you bet money it won’t snow again at 1000 feet over the interior…lol. 
 

It’s not good pattern over the next 10-15 days but it could easily still snow a few inches. I also think there’s going to be a more favorable pattern later this month. 

The bet is both ORH and BDL. ORH couid get a 3 foot storm .. but if BDL doesn’t get 4”.. the bet is won.

You act as if this is what I want or am rooting for . I want snow . I want to lose. But I also feel very confident that we are done 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The bet is both ORH and BDL. ORH couid get a 3 foot storm .. but if BDL doesn’t get 4”.. the bet is won.

You act as if this is what I want or am rooting for . I want snow . I want to lose. But I also feel very confident that we are done 

Oh I was pretty sure when you and Ginxy made the bet it had to be both that failed for you to win.

Its still a terrible bet for BDL but obviously they have a better chance of failing than ORH does. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I was pretty sure when you and Ginxy made the bet it had to be both that failed for you to win.

Its still a terrible bet for BDL but obviously they have a better chance of failing than ORH does. 

The bet I thought I made was that both needed to measure 4” for Ginx to win. That was what I thought the bet was .  I wouldn’t have made it for just ORH

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekends storm is most likely done. 

 

The models had the first storm weaker and much further east which would drag the trough east to make room for the 2nd storm to come up the storm. 

 

Now the models are showing the 1st storm stronger and much further west which is bad for the 2nd storm.

 

0E535A8B-157D-47AB-9F68-40C4E1B9C0F6.gif

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The bet I thought I made was that both needed to measure 4” for Ginx to win. That was what I thought the bet was .  I wouldn’t have made it for just ORH

Why wouldn’t you just make the bet for BDL then? BDL isn’t getting 4”+ the rest of the season while ORH gets skunked. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why wouldn’t you just make the bet for BDL then? BDL isn’t getting 4”+ the rest of the season while ORH gets skunked. 

I saw they were both close to or at 4” needed to not have the least snowiest winter ever . When I saw that, and how the winter futility has gone , pattern persistence and my view of what I see the pattern looking like thru Morch 31.. that is why I made the bet .  Maybe it was foolish .. it’s not like I am rooting against snow. No one is a bigger snow lover than me .. I just see a favorable pattern thru end of Morch of more futility . 

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I knew Feb 2021 was epic in NNJ but theyve been undersold badly outside of that month for a while. They are due for one of those stretches. 

Absolutely. I remember as a kid in the 90’s I would have extreme jealousy for those areas, as I was on the jersey shore. 

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