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January 15-16 2023 Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I just saw my neighbor who is patrol officer for Greenfield PD and he said numerous accidents in town.  He told me because snow was a surprise and it’s a holiday the DPW didn’t call anyone in to plow or treat roads.  They don’t wanna pay the holiday overtime. 

yeah, screw those people out on the roads on a holiday. their lives don't matter. Dumb

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Looks like the Euro was the better fit... Somewhat better continuity, and layout of general 1.5 to 2.5" is a reasonable compromise between the unrealistic 4-6" ideas, and the relative no-show by some off-on other guidance types.

Good win there

For me personally ... this was a modest positive bust.  I was on the fence about this thing even as the rad was activating on this yesterday, thinking a lot of the western edge/banding might have trouble getting down to the earth.  Higher pwat in the area may have helped this facilitate better surface realization.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like the Euro was the better fit... Somewhat better continuity, and layout of general 1.5 to 2.5" is a reasonable compromise between the unrealistic 4-6" ideas, and the relative no-show by some off-on other guidance types.

Good win there

It was way too much QPS north and west of areas like Taunton and Boston. But I think the models did have that appendage of steadier Snow’s farther  West too.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was way too much QPS north and west of areas like Taunton and Boston. But I think the models did have that appendage of steadier Snow’s farther  West too.

yeah, hence "reasonable compromise" 

It was too robust with QPF, but it was also better continuity, consistently west of other guidance where that seemed to do okay. So we trade off in disappointing amounts for actually getting something/anything to happen in 2022-2023

Just my take - doesn't have to be the best version.

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15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I just saw my neighbor who is patrol officer for Greenfield PD and he said numerous accidents in town.  He told me because snow was a surprise and it’s a holiday the DPW didn’t call anyone in to plow or treat roads.  They don’t wanna pay the holiday overtime. 

that's pretty stupid. it's not like they have blown through their budget this year. i mean, how many times have they been out this year, vs past years?

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was way too much QPS north and west of areas like Taunton and Boston. But I think the models did have that appendage of steadier Snow’s farther  West too.

Outside QPF, which I felt was overdone, I think models did a commendable job inside a couple days with this.

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