December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, IronTy said:

Let the record show who the true enthusiasts and weenies are.  When the rubber meets the road the enthusiasts are out becoming one with the elements vs. weenies riding each run of the model suites from the comfort of their living room hearths.  

I like to battle the elements but not discount them. 

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think what he is trying to say is that climate change amplifies these events, not directly create them. 

Because you seem a good kid, I’ll indulge…

The issue with that post is that the graph shows extreme temp drop events happening regularly over the last nearly 100 years. In fact, the modeled event is less “impressive” than each of those top 10. Attributing this event to climate change in any way misses the point entirely…and does climate change science a disservice, in my opinion.

I may not disagree that climate change is simplifying/could amplify extreme events, but this event is not one of those.

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

"One with the elements..."

Jack Front nipping at your nose….whole body nip really 

[Stormfly]

28 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

This is a completely different set up.  In 2011 the upper level vort passed just to our south making it a nearly perfect vort passage.  There was crazy dynamics with that storm.. but it was a more of a "standard" set up with a storm passing just to our south.  This is anafront snow.  And in order for anafront snow to work a lot of things need to come together perfectly.  Many times the models will over due these ingredients and show accumulating snow for our region but once it comes we wind up seeing only flurries on the back side of a front.  

Fair enough, but that event sneaked up on us here for sure.  The official forecast had us in a winter weather advisory for 2-4" snow after changeover.  The actual outcome was 16" for us and it stuck to everything and caused a quarter of a million outages in BGE territory!  That was one of the more memorable weather events for us no doubt.

But as boring as weather has been for us as of late, a shut down, drying out winds and bitter cold following is most likely the outcome.

A white Christmas would be nice, but as most of us here know the reality is we just live in the wrong location.  I guess we all should know better. ;)

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think what he is trying to say is that climate change amplifies these events, not directly create them. 

 

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Because you seem a good kid, I’ll indulge…

The issue with that post is that the graph shows extreme temp drop events happening regularly over the last nearly 100 years. In fact, the modeled event is less “impressive” than each of those top 10. Attributing this event to climate change in any way misses the point entirely…and does climate change science a disservice, in my opinion.

I may not disagree that climate change is simplifying/could amplify extreme events, but this event is not one of those.

On a somewhat related point, this brings up a question I've been pondering today. I wonder how we'll be able to parse the details of a particular threat that does or doesn't pan out to see whether the cause was climate or chaos. Like this event, for example...what caused the cut? Warm Atlantic not supporting g a 50/50, or just the chaos of the atmosphere with whatever happened with the TPV? I think it makes an interesting part of conversation for what goes on whether we fail or win, lol

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

On a somewhat related point, this brings up a question I've been pondering today. I wonder how we'll be able to parse the details of a particular threat that does or doesn't pan out to see whether the cause was climate or chaos. Like this event, for example...what caused the cut? Warm Atlantic not supporting g a 50/50, or just the chaos of the atmosphere with whatever happened with the TPV? I think it makes an interesting part of conversation for what goes on whether we fail or win, lol

I think the bigger culprit than chaos or lack of 50/50 is the pna being too far west. Models initially had it centered over the western rockies, then pulled it back westward just offshore into the eastern Pacific.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - without a western US ridge, we have a snowballs chance in hell of getting a good snowstorm here. Especially if it’s December. 

OTOH, if we had a 50/50, plenty of cold air, and a block of just the right strength and position, then MAYBE we can get away with a neutral PNA. 

[osfan24]

22 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Fair enough, but that event sneaked up on us here for sure.  The official forecast had us in a winter weather advisory for 2-4" snow after changeover.  The actual outcome was 16" for us and it stuck to everything and caused a quarter of a million outages in BGE territory!  That was one of the more memorable weather events for us no doubt.

But as boring as weather has been for us as of late, a shut down, drying out winds and bitter cold following is most likely the outcome.

A white Christmas would be nice, but as most of us here know the reality is we just live in the wrong location.  I guess we all should know better.

That one really blew up for the northeast folks. Your location really helped with that one. Down this way, it was like a 6-8 inch storm. It was fun and snowed like crazy for 3-4 hours, but then it was over.

[clskinsfan]

RGEM much better at 18Z with the initial slug of moisture for the Winchester area. Might even be enough to keep it all from getting washed away. Just want a white Christmas. Thats it. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

27 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Fair enough, but that event sneaked up on us here for sure.  The official forecast had us in a winter weather advisory for 2-4" snow after changeover.  The actual outcome was 16" for us and it stuck to everything and caused a quarter of a million outages in BGE territory!  That was one of the more memorable weather events for us no doubt.

But as boring as weather has been for us as of late, a shut down, drying out winds and bitter cold following is most likely the outcome.

A white Christmas would be nice, but as most of us here know the reality is we just live in the wrong location.  I guess we all should know better.

It's my number 1 in terms of dynamics - ie thundersnow, rates, accumulation over a short period.  Just an insane event.

[cbmclean]

40 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Because you seem a good kid, I’ll indulge…

The issue with that post is that the graph shows extreme temp drop events happening regularly over the last nearly 100 years. In fact, the modeled event is less “impressive” than each of those top 10. Attributing this event to climate change in any way misses the point entirely…and does climate change science a disservice, in my opinion.

I may not disagree that climate change is simplifying/could amplify extreme events, but this event is not one of those.

Well said.

[Terrapinwx]

To my untrained eyes it seems like the biggest difference between the GFS and the other models for the backend snow is that it drops the upper level low down to our latitude, which sets up a better moisture transport leading into the front


.

[WxUSAF]

So I guess we got that going for us? 
 

 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So I guess we got that going for us? 
 

 

Graf model? Weenie model?

[AtlanticWx]

given the trends seen on euro and multiple meso models, that initial surge of wintry precip could crawl east enough for snow lovers W of I95, let's see 00z and the trends thereafter

[mappy]

I’m hopeful for a little snow Friday, would be a nice consolation prize after a high in the 50s in the morning and 20s down to teens by evening 

[TSSN+]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

So I guess we got that going for us? 
 

 

Can someone revoke his degree and ban him from ever posting again. 

[Terpeast]

Not sure when NAM gets into its range, but it seems to be trending colder at precip onset. Only checked 850 temps, not ptype

[Ji]

Not sure when NAM gets into its range, but it seems to be trending colder at precip onset. Only checked 850 temps, not ptype

Frustrated that 850 is below 0 but still rain. So Frustrating. Worst winter ever

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not sure when NAM gets into its range, but it seems to be trending colder at precip onset. Only checked 850 temps, not ptype

Sounding is fine out here at onset and for about 3 hours it appears. Maybe we can actually snag an inch or two.

 

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not sure when NAM gets into its range, but it seems to be trending colder at precip onset. Only checked 850 temps, not ptype

Yeah, it's looking like it may be falling inline with the GFS. 

[Ji]

Precip usually comes faster than models show but

[Ji]

Sounding is fine out here at onset and for about 3 hours it appears. Maybe we can actually snag an inch or two.

 

Do you have this for jyo?

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Sounding is fine out here at onset and for about 3 hours it appears. Maybe we can actually snag an inch or two.

 

Do you have this for jyo?

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think the bigger culprit than chaos or lack of 50/50 is the pna being too far west. Models initially had it centered over the western rockies, then pulled it back westward just offshore into the eastern Pacific.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - without a western US ridge, we have a snowballs chance in hell of getting a good snowstorm here. Especially if it’s December. 

OTOH, if we had a 50/50, plenty of cold air, and a block of just the right strength and position, then MAYBE we can get away with a neutral PNA. 

We can overcome a -pna in Feb and March with blocking but it’s hard to almost impossible in December. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Welp. Thanks anyways. 

[clskinsfan]

You get some with the front as well Ji. Not much. But maybe enough to whiten the ground at least. 

 

[Ji]

Thanks

[NorthArlington101]

[WinterWxLuvr]

3k is very bullish

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

3k is very bullish

Looks better than the 12k.

Too bad the RGEM is a shit model