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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I really feel bad for the folks in Northern Maine, There taking it on the chin with the lack of snow up there.

 

They're going to lose at least a month of their riding season the way it looks right now. I don't even know why the local clubs bother down here anymore. They are constantly losing access, putting in hours and hours of work for riding seasons that are lasting a month at best. The last club meeting I went to was 90% gray hair. The sport is dying down here. 

Still some hope for next weekend but no end in sight to AN temps. 

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27 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

They're going to lose at least a month of their riding season the way it looks right now. I don't even know why the local clubs bother down here anymore. They are constantly losing access, putting in hours and hours of work for riding seasons that are lasting a month at best. The last club meeting I went to was 90% gray hair. The sport is dying down here. 

Still some hope for next weekend but no end in sight to AN temps. 

There's not many young people willing to join and contribute their time as they prefer riding off trail which is also pissing off land owners and they are closing off more trail access because of them, We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago.

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What the MJO is doing right now has nothing to do with whatever’s happening 12th-16th. That’s A

B,  there are other factors far more powerful in dictating the mid latitude hemisphere for temperature distribution. The MJO’ is not one of those.

C,  the MJO “might” contribute… Or assist in modulating the pattern out in time – and there is absolutely a lag correlation. But it does not drive the pattern. Frankly it’s a little bit odd that this MJO wave is modeled to do what it’s doing in the first place, given to the antecedent an ongoing climate footprint   But, climate like rules are certainly meant to be broken from time to time… And I can’t think of a better time than during climate change for that to occur - as a bit of snark humor lol

MJO either constructively interferes or destructively interferes… And depending on which determines how much a given wave’s modulation can actually occur. The hemispheres might be receptive (constructive) with the MJO in phase 8 – 1 -2, just based on the uncouple La Niña state of the Pacific - which is not only looking more Nino like, it’s doing so rather violently… Which is a whole nother complex conjecture. But if so it would be later than next week 

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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Both nw and Ne hills should be able to grab 1-3” this afternoon/ eve 

That's not happening. Gil on WTNH has this over with by early afternoon. 

Even Bob on NBC said he thinks that it's not coming together like the miles showed yesterday. So maybe some showers this afternoon or rain or snow. I don't think you're getting you're getting your 1"-3"

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6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's not happening. Gil on WTNH has this over with by early afternoon. 

Even Bob on NBC said he thinks that it's not coming together like the miles showed yesterday. So maybe some showers this afternoon or rain or snow. I don't think you're getting you're getting your 1"-3"

We don’t need to watch the news on tv to know when a storm ends. We all have access to up to the minute guidance and radars.  NECT may snow til 5-6pm. 

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No overnight… that little critter for the 9th did come back in the models.

This is no declaration as to it success… but there is a presentation there.
… a minor ordeal that favors southern zone as it were. 

Yeah that could be a sneaky little event for many. Sometimes in these God awful patterns it's those systems that end up producing. I think several have said this over the course of the past few weeks, but in these patterns sometimes little systems can sneak up on you with 2-3 day lead time. 

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20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago.

Northern Aroostook will get theirs..Abs so will western Maine. But we gotta be patient.  In ‘21, I didn’t take my first trip til 1/21, abd it was marginal, but then it took off shortly there after.  It happens. We wait for now. It will come. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Northern Aroostook will get theirs..Abs so will western Maine. But we gotta be patient.  In ‘21, I didn’t take my first trip til 1/21, abd it was marginal, but then it took off shortly there after.  It happens. We wait for now. It will come. 

Ice conditions are treacherous up here, That really needs to be addressed as most trail systems are very reliant on water crossing with their trails, We need an extended period of arctic cold and i don't see that happening.

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41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I really feel bad for the folks in Northern Maine, There taking it on the chin with the lack of snow up there.

Depth.png

Terrible in the Aroostook River Valley, but the trails south and west from Fort Kent should be oaky - looks like 12-20" above 1000'.  That's well below average but still plenty to groom.  Jackman/Pittston Farm also with that 12-20.  
Not great but not yet a 2006 disaster, IMO.

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30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There's not many young people willing to join and contribute their time as they prefer riding off trail which is also pissing off land owners and they are closing off more trail access because of them, We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago.

My neighbor, who generally runs the local club's groomer, is probably about 60 - just a pup from my viewpoint :D but symbolic of what you said.  Both of the big December storms were disasters for the sledders - first one dumped trees all over some trails then the big rain wrecked the snow.  Neighbor ran the groomer the day after the deluge to even out things a bit, but the subsequent warmth has made the trail unusable.  His 12/24 run half-pulled a 200 lb (I thought) rock on a high point.  Because that rock was positioned to damage the drag, day before yesterday I walked out there with sledge and crowbar.  I got the rock loose and partially lifted but that only showed me that 200 was actually more like 400 and I had to give up.  Hope he can use the partially elevated position to safely push that rock to the side.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS getting a little closer for Monday. That's some good WAA way out ahead...wouldn't shock me if that initial stuff was a little more north.

Yeesh, that's getting close to something good. Seems like it's going to be a tease though....but who knows, we've seen worse trend strongly inside of 84 hours.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS getting a little closer for Monday. That's some good WAA way out ahead...wouldn't shock me if that initial stuff was a little more north.

 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeesh, that's getting close to something good. Seems like it's going to be a tease though....but who knows, we've seen worse trend strongly inside of 84 hours.

Was just about to post. Unlike today, I’ve liked the trend for that one, even though all these signals are conditional. That one is close.

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47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There's not many young people willing to join and contribute their time as they prefer riding off trail which is also pissing off land owners and they are closing off more trail access because of them, We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago.

meanwhile pittston farm posts a "we're grooming and very surprised" FB post last nite. I'm not sure how they're grooming the 7" they got unless they still had a crusty couple inches of base, but you'll see a bunch of guys flock there this weekend to ride circles around the farm and pound beer at the bar. The farm must be losing some money from the late start and are getting desperate

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Northern Aroostook will get theirs..Abs so will western Maine. But we gotta be patient.  In ‘21, I didn’t take my first trip til 1/21, abd it was marginal, but then it took off shortly there after.  It happens. We wait for now. It will come. 

didn't ride last year till jan 27th, in jackman. The not again till march. Went out twice, but was able to rack  up ~850mi, but that's terrible. Missed an opportunity to ride local only because we were coming back from saddleback weekend (end of Jan) and I figured I'd wait till the next weekend, but then it melted. sucks.

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